Daytona 500

Daytona International Speedway — February 15, 2009

Matt Kenseth

Winner

152

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Matt Kenseth won the 2009 Daytona 500 at Daytona International Speedway on February 15, 2009, leading 7 of 152 laps. Kevin Harvick finished second; A.J. Allmendinger rounded out the podium. The race featured 9 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, February 15, 2009

Track

Daytona International Speedway

Season

2009

Winner

Matt Kenseth

Leaders

9 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	39	+38	Matt Kenseth		152	—	Running	7	190
2	32	+30	Kevin Harvick		152	—	Running	—	170
3	20	+17	A.J. Allmendinger	Dodge	152	—	Running	—	165
4	22	+18	Clint Bowyer		152	—	Running	—	160
5	30	+25	Elliott Sadler	Dodge	152	—	Running	24	160
6	33	+27	David Ragan		152	—	Running	—	150
7	27	+20	Michael Waltrip		152	—	Running	—	146
8	5	-3	Tony Stewart		152	—	Running	15	147
9	34	+25	Reed Sorenson	Dodge	152	—	Running	—	138
10	13	+3	Kurt Busch	Dodge	152	—	Running	—	134
11	1	-10	Martin Truex, Jr.		152	—	Running	1	135
12	28	+16	David Reutimann		152	—	Running	—	127
13	3	-10	Jeff Gordon		152	—	Running	14	129
14	8	-6	Juan Pablo Montoya		152	—	Running	—	121
15	25	+10	Casey Mears		152	—	Running	—	118
16	2	-14	Mark Martin		152	—	Running	1	120
17	23	+6	Marcos Ambrose		152	—	Running	—	112
18	16	-2	Carl Edwards		152	—	Running	—	109
19	37	+18	John Andretti		152	—	Running	—	106
20	35	+15	Greg Biffle		152	—	Running	—	103
21	42	+21	Regan Smith		152	—	Running	—	100
22	12	-10	Bobby Labonte		152	—	Running	1	102
23	40	+17	Bill Elliott		152	—	Running	—	94
24	43	+19	Terry Labonte		152	—	Running	—	91
25	17	-8	Scott Riggs		152	—	Running	—	88
26	10	-16	Denny Hamlin		152	—	Running	—	85
27	14	-13	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.		152	—	Running	1	87
28	26	-2	Jeff Burton		152	—	Running	—	79
29	15	-14	Kasey Kahne	Dodge	152	—	Running	—	76
30	11	-19	Aric Almirola		152	—	Running	—	73
31	7	-24	Jimmie Johnson		152	—	Running	—	70
32	29	-3	Sam Hornish Jr.	Dodge	151	—	Running	—	67
33	24	-9	David Stremme	Dodge	151	—	Running	—	64
34	31	-3	Robby Gordon		151	—	Running	—	61
35	38	+3	Scott Speed		151	—	Running	—	58
36	36	—	Ryan Newman		150	—	Running	—	55
37	21	-16	Jamie McMurray		139	—	Running	—	52
38	19	-19	Paul Menard		138	—	Running	—	49
39	6	-33	Brian Vickers		134	—	Running	—	46
40	18	-22	Jeremy Mayfield		126	—	DNF	—	43
41	4	-37	Kyle Busch		123	—	DNF	88	50
42	41	-1	Travis Kvapil		90	—	DNF	—	37
43	9	-34	Joey Logano		79	—	DNF	—	34

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 7 matched drivers, the model averaged 14.3 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
3	A.J. Allmendinger	20.1	3	+17.1	Moderate
11	Martin Truex, Jr.	20.1	11	+9.1	Coinflip
15	Casey Mears	18.5	15	+3.5	Coinflip
26	Denny Hamlin	16.0	26	-10.0	Coinflip
31	Jimmie Johnson	18.9	31	-12.1	Coinflip
41	Kyle Busch	15.1	41	-25.9	Coinflip
43	Joey Logano	20.5	43	-22.5	Moderate

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Matt Kenseth: has 50 career starts at Daytona International Speedway with a 15.6 avg finish (4 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Kyle Busch: was the model’s top pick based on 69 career starts at Daytona International Speedway with a 17.3 avg finish (3 wins), finishing P41 on the day.
A.J. Allmendinger: was the biggest surprise, finishing P3 vs predicted P20. Track history: 38 starts, 19.7 avg finish.

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