Ford 400 at Homestead-Miami

Homestead-Miami Speedway — November 22, 2009

Denny Hamlin

Winner

267

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Denny Hamlin won the 2009 Ford 400 at Homestead-Miami at Homestead-Miami Speedway on November 22, 2009, leading 71 of 267 laps. Jeff Burton finished second; Kevin Harvick rounded out the podium. The race featured 10 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, November 22, 2009

Track

Homestead-Miami Speedway

Season

2009

Winner

Denny Hamlin

Leaders

10 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	38	+37	Denny Hamlin		267	—	Running	71	195
2	26	+24	Jeff Burton		267	—	Running	19	175
3	6	+3	Kevin Harvick		267	—	Running	56	170
4	12	+8	Kurt Busch	Dodge	267	—	Running	43	165
5	1	-4	Jimmie Johnson		267	—	Running	27	160
6	20	+14	Jeff Gordon		267	—	Running	—	150
7	24	+17	Carl Edwards		267	—	Running	—	146
8	30	+22	Kyle Busch		267	—	Running	1	147
9	14	+5	Martin Truex, Jr.		267	—	Running	—	138
10	13	+3	A.J. Allmendinger	Dodge	267	—	Running	—	134
11	10	-1	Clint Bowyer		267	—	Running	1	135
12	4	-8	Mark Martin		267	—	Running	—	127
13	34	+21	Matt Kenseth		267	—	Running	—	124
14	8	-6	Greg Biffle		267	—	Running	—	121
15	22	+7	David Reutimann		267	—	Running	—	118
16	9	-7	Bill Elliott		267	—	Running	—	115
17	25	+8	Kasey Kahne	Dodge	267	—	Running	—	112
18	11	-7	Jamie McMurray		267	—	Running	—	109
19	15	-4	Casey Mears		267	—	Running	—	106
20	33	+13	Brian Vickers		267	—	Running	—	103
21	29	+8	Sam Hornish Jr.	Dodge	267	—	Running	—	100
22	5	-17	Tony Stewart		267	—	Running	43	102
23	7	-16	Ryan Newman		267	—	Running	—	94
24	35	+11	Joey Logano		267	—	Running	—	91
25	27	+2	Brad Keselowski	Dodge	267	—	Running	—	88
26	36	+10	Paul Menard		267	—	Running	—	85
27	2	-25	Scott Speed		267	—	Running	—	82
28	32	+4	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.		267	—	Running	—	79
29	17	-12	David Gilliland		267	—	Running	—	76
30	39	+9	Michael Waltrip		266	—	Running	1	78
31	19	-12	Bobby Labonte		266	—	Running	—	70
32	16	-16	Regan Smith		266	—	Running	—	67
33	40	+7	John Andretti		266	—	Running	—	64
34	41	+7	David Ragan		266	—	Running	—	61
35	3	-32	Marcos Ambrose		251	—	Running	4	63
36	31	-5	Erik Darnell		247	—	Running	—	55
37	28	-9	Travis Kvapil		243	—	Running	—	52
38	23	-15	Juan Pablo Montoya		235	—	Running	—	49
39	37	-2	Robby Gordon		227	—	Running	—	46
40	42	+2	Reed Sorenson	Dodge	116	—	DNF	—	43
41	21	-20	Elliott Sadler	Dodge	116	—	DNF	—	40
42	43	+1	Terry Labonte		88	—	DNF	—	37
43	18	-25	Michael McDowell		35	—	DNF	—	34

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 9 matched drivers, the model averaged 10.8 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
1	Denny Hamlin	8.2	1	+7.2	High Confidence
5	Jimmie Johnson	19.9	5	+14.9	Moderate
8	Kyle Busch	17.0	8	+9.0	Coinflip
9	Martin Truex, Jr.	15.4	9	+6.4	Coinflip
10	A.J. Allmendinger	18.3	10	+8.3	Moderate
19	Casey Mears	16.9	19	-2.1	Coinflip
24	Joey Logano	14.7	24	-9.3	Coinflip
25	Brad Keselowski	11.2	25	-13.8	Moderate
43	Michael McDowell	17.0	43	-26.0	Coinflip

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Denny Hamlin: has 27 career starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway with a 10.5 avg finish (3 wins) — the model correctly identified this strength.
Jimmie Johnson: was the biggest surprise, finishing P5 vs predicted P20. Track history: 23 starts, 15.2 avg finish.

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