NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Martinsville

Martinsville Speedway — October 25, 2009

Denny Hamlin

Winner

501

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Denny Hamlin won the 2009 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Martinsville at Martinsville Speedway on October 25, 2009, leading 206 of 501 laps. Jimmie Johnson finished second; Juan Pablo Montoya rounded out the podium. The race featured 12 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, October 25, 2009

Track

Martinsville Speedway

Season

2009

Winner

Denny Hamlin

Leaders

12 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	17	+16	Denny Hamlin		501	—	Running	206	195
2	15	+13	Jimmie Johnson		501	—	Running	164	175
3	21	+18	Juan Pablo Montoya		501	—	Running	37	170
4	41	+37	Kyle Busch		501	—	Running	4	165
5	2	-3	Jeff Gordon		501	—	Running	36	160
6	23	+17	Jamie McMurray		501	—	Running	—	150
7	1	-6	Ryan Newman		501	—	Running	23	151
8	4	-4	Mark Martin		501	—	Running	1	147
9	13	+4	Tony Stewart		501	—	Running	—	138
10	10	—	Kevin Harvick		501	—	Running	—	134
11	24	+13	Brian Vickers		501	—	Running	—	130
12	7	-5	Joey Logano		501	—	Running	—	127
13	8	-5	Bobby Labonte		501	—	Running	—	124
14	32	+18	Matt Kenseth		501	—	Running	—	121
15	22	+7	Jeff Burton		501	—	Running	4	123
16	5	-11	David Reutimann		501	—	Running	18	120
17	37	+20	Kurt Busch	Dodge	501	—	Running	—	112
18	6	-12	Casey Mears		501	—	Running	—	109
19	19	—	Clint Bowyer		501	—	Running	—	106
20	29	+9	Carl Edwards		501	—	Running	—	103
21	40	+19	Elliott Sadler	Dodge	500	—	Running	—	100
22	14	-8	David Ragan		500	—	Running	—	97
23	30	+7	Paul Menard		500	—	Running	—	94
24	9	-15	Reed Sorenson	Dodge	500	—	Running	—	91
25	20	-5	Greg Biffle		500	—	Running	6	93
26	27	+1	John Andretti		499	—	Running	1	90
27	34	+7	Marcos Ambrose		499	—	Running	—	82
28	3	-25	Martin Truex, Jr.		499	—	Running	—	79
29	12	-17	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.		499	—	Running	—	76
30	36	+6	Michael Waltrip		497	—	Running	—	73
31	18	-13	Scott Speed		495	—	Running	—	70
32	26	-6	Kasey Kahne	Dodge	494	—	Running	—	67
33	11	-22	David Stremme	Dodge	439	—	Running	—	64
34	16	-18	A.J. Allmendinger	Dodge	414	—	DNF	—	61
35	38	+3	Sterling Marlin	Dodge	355	—	DNF	—	58
36	31	-5	Sam Hornish Jr.	Dodge	248	—	DNF	—	55
37	33	-4	Robby Gordon		130	—	DNF	—	52
38	28	-10	Joe Nemechek		52	—	DNF	—	49
39	35	-4	David Gilliland		48	—	DNF	1	51
40	39	-1	Dave Blaney		38	—	DNF	—	43
41	42	+1	Michael McDowell		36	—	DNF	—	40
42	43	+1	Derrike Cope		31	—	DNF	—	37
43	25	-18	Travis Kvapil		30	—	DNF	—	34

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 8 matched drivers, the model averaged 11.1 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
1	Denny Hamlin	6.8	1	+5.8	High Confidence
2	Jimmie Johnson	17.7	2	+15.7	Moderate
4	Kyle Busch	15.6	4	+11.6	Coinflip
12	Joey Logano	12.1	12	+0.1	Coinflip
18	Casey Mears	18.0	18	0.0	Moderate
28	Martin Truex, Jr.	13.8	28	-14.2	Coinflip
34	A.J. Allmendinger	18.3	34	-15.7	Moderate
41	Michael McDowell	15.0	41	-26.0	Coinflip

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Denny Hamlin: has 47 career starts at Martinsville Speedway with a 9.2 avg finish (8 wins) — the model correctly identified this strength.
Jimmie Johnson: was the biggest surprise, finishing P2 vs predicted P18. Track history: 36 starts, 8.7 avg finish.

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