NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Bristol

Bristol Motor Speedway — August 22, 2009

Kyle Busch

Winner

500

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Kyle Busch won the 2009 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Bristol at Bristol Motor Speedway on August 22, 2009, leading 68 of 500 laps. Mark Martin finished second; Marcos Ambrose rounded out the podium. The race featured 5 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Saturday, August 22, 2009

Track

Bristol Motor Speedway

Season

2009

Winner

Kyle Busch

Leaders

5 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	15	+14	Kyle Busch		500	—	Running	68	190
2	1	-1	Mark Martin		500	—	Running	240	180
3	25	+22	Marcos Ambrose		500	—	Running	—	165
4	2	-2	Greg Biffle		500	—	Running	76	165
5	41	+36	Denny Hamlin		500	—	Running	—	155
6	9	+3	Ryan Newman		500	—	Running	—	150
7	13	+6	Kurt Busch	Dodge	500	—	Running	—	146
8	21	+13	Jimmie Johnson		500	—	Running	107	147
9	27	+18	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.		500	—	Running	—	138
10	5	-5	Matt Kenseth		500	—	Running	—	134
11	17	+6	Jamie McMurray		500	—	Running	—	130
12	14	+2	Brian Vickers		500	—	Running	—	127
13	7	-6	Casey Mears		500	—	Running	—	124
14	23	+9	David Ragan		500	—	Running	—	121
15	3	-12	Scott Speed		500	—	Running	—	118
16	32	+16	Carl Edwards		500	—	Running	—	115
17	18	+1	David Reutimann		500	—	Running	—	112
18	37	+19	Jeff Burton		500	—	Running	—	109
19	10	-9	Reed Sorenson	Dodge	500	—	Running	—	106
20	34	+14	David Stremme	Dodge	500	—	Running	—	103
21	6	-15	Clint Bowyer		500	—	Running	—	100
22	24	+2	Martin Truex, Jr.		500	—	Running	—	97
23	33	+10	Jeff Gordon		499	—	Running	—	94
24	39	+15	Paul Menard		498	—	Running	—	91
25	11	-14	Juan Pablo Montoya		498	—	Running	—	88
26	42	+16	Elliott Sadler	Dodge	498	—	Running	—	85
27	28	+1	Regan Smith		498	—	Running	—	82
28	29	+1	Kasey Kahne	Dodge	497	—	Running	—	79
29	26	-3	Scott Wimmer		496	—	Running	—	76
30	40	+10	John Andretti		494	—	Running	—	73
31	36	+5	Michael Waltrip		490	—	Running	9	75
32	31	-1	Robby Gordon		490	—	Running	—	67
33	30	-3	Tony Stewart		489	—	Running	—	64
34	8	-26	Joey Logano		484	—	Running	—	61
35	38	+3	Sam Hornish Jr.	Dodge	472	—	Running	—	58
36	20	-16	Bobby Labonte		461	—	Running	—	55
37	19	-18	A.J. Allmendinger	Dodge	452	—	Running	—	52
38	16	-22	Kevin Harvick		438	—	Running	—	49
39	12	-27	David Gilliland		354	—	DNF	—	46
40	22	-18	Terry Labonte		244	—	DNF	—	43
41	43	+2	Joe Nemechek		48	—	DNF	—	40
42	35	-7	Tony Raines		27	—	DNF	—	37
43	4	-39	Dave Blaney		8	—	DNF	—	34

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 7 matched drivers, the model averaged 11.4 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
1	Kyle Busch	15.6	1	+14.6	Coinflip
5	Denny Hamlin	6.8	5	+1.8	High Confidence
8	Jimmie Johnson	17.7	8	+9.7	Moderate
13	Casey Mears	18.0	13	+5.0	Moderate
22	Martin Truex, Jr.	13.8	22	-8.2	Coinflip
34	Joey Logano	12.1	34	-21.9	Coinflip
37	A.J. Allmendinger	18.3	37	-18.7	Moderate

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Kyle Busch: has 73 career starts at Bristol Motor Speedway with a 11.7 avg finish (20 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 48 career starts at Bristol Motor Speedway with a 14.3 avg finish (4 wins), finishing P5 on the day.

Track Preview →