NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Kansas

Kansas Speedway — October 4, 2009

Tony Stewart

Winner

267

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Tony Stewart won the 2009 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Kansas at Kansas Speedway on October 4, 2009, leading 37 of 267 laps. Jeff Gordon finished second; Greg Biffle rounded out the podium. The race featured 14 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, October 4, 2009

Track

Kansas Speedway

Season

2009

Winner

Tony Stewart

Leaders

14 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	5	+4	Tony Stewart		267	—	Running	37	190
2	9	+7	Jeff Gordon		267	—	Running	—	170
3	31	+28	Greg Biffle		267	—	Running	113	175
4	14	+10	Juan Pablo Montoya		267	—	Running	1	165
5	22	+17	Denny Hamlin		267	—	Running	1	160
6	6	—	Kasey Kahne	Dodge	267	—	Running	—	150
7	1	-6	Mark Martin		267	—	Running	11	151
8	13	+5	David Reutimann		267	—	Running	—	142
9	11	+2	Jimmie Johnson		267	—	Running	53	143
10	17	+7	Carl Edwards		267	—	Running	1	139
11	39	+28	Kurt Busch	Dodge	267	—	Running	2	135
12	34	+22	Kyle Busch		267	—	Running	—	127
13	3	-10	Brad Keselowski		267	—	Running	1	129
14	27	+13	Marcos Ambrose		267	—	Running	—	121
15	36	+21	Casey Mears		267	—	Running	—	118
16	21	+5	Martin Truex, Jr.		267	—	Running	2	120
17	15	-2	A.J. Allmendinger	Dodge	267	—	Running	—	112
18	33	+15	Sam Hornish Jr.	Dodge	267	—	Running	—	109
19	16	-3	Bill Elliott		266	—	Running	—	106
20	42	+22	Elliott Sadler	Dodge	266	—	Running	2	108
21	8	-13	Clint Bowyer		266	—	Running	—	100
22	30	+8	Ryan Newman		266	—	Running	—	97
23	35	+12	Jeff Burton		266	—	Running	—	94
24	38	+14	Kevin Harvick		266	—	Running	—	91
25	32	+7	David Stremme	Dodge	266	—	Running	—	88
26	28	+2	Reed Sorenson	Dodge	266	—	Running	—	85
27	10	-17	Scott Speed		266	—	Running	—	82
28	18	-10	Joey Logano		266	—	Running	—	79
29	41	+12	Erik Darnell		265	—	Running	—	76
30	20	-10	Paul Menard		265	—	Running	—	73
31	4	-27	Jamie McMurray		264	—	Running	—	70
32	43	+11	Max Papis		263	—	Running	—	67
33	40	+7	John Andretti		263	—	Running	1	69
34	37	+3	Robby Gordon		263	—	Running	—	61
35	25	-10	David Ragan		256	—	Running	—	58
36	2	-34	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.		232	—	Running	41	60
37	12	-25	Brian Vickers		208	—	DNF	—	52
38	29	-9	Michael Waltrip		141	—	DNF	—	49
39	23	-16	Matt Kenseth		134	—	DNF	1	51
40	24	-16	Dave Blaney		28	—	DNF	—	43
41	19	-22	Mike Bliss	Dodge	26	—	DNF	—	40
42	7	-35	Joe Nemechek		25	—	DNF	—	37
43	26	-17	Bobby Labonte		6	—	DNF	—	34

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 8 matched drivers, the model averaged 4.8 positions off — better than the season average of 8.5. Excellent

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
5	Denny Hamlin	8.2	5	+3.2	High Confidence
9	Jimmie Johnson	19.9	9	+10.9	Moderate
12	Kyle Busch	17.0	12	+5.0	Coinflip
13	Brad Keselowski	11.2	13	-1.8	Moderate
15	Casey Mears	16.9	15	+1.9	Coinflip
16	Martin Truex, Jr.	15.4	16	-0.6	Coinflip
17	A.J. Allmendinger	18.3	17	+1.3	Moderate
28	Joey Logano	14.7	28	-13.3	Coinflip

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Tony Stewart: has 24 career starts at Kansas Speedway with a 15.2 avg finish (2 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 42 career starts at Kansas Speedway with a 12.9 avg finish (5 wins), finishing P5 on the day.
Jimmie Johnson: was the biggest surprise, finishing P9 vs predicted P20. Track history: 26 starts, 9.2 avg finish.

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