NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Michigan

Michigan International Speedway — June 14, 2009

Mark Martin

Winner

200

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Mark Martin won the 2009 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Michigan at Michigan International Speedway on June 14, 2009, leading 1 of 200 laps. Jeff Gordon finished second; Denny Hamlin rounded out the podium. The race featured 6 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, June 14, 2009

Track

Michigan International Speedway

Season

2009

Winner

Mark Martin

Leaders

6 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	32	+31	Mark Martin		200	—	Running	1	190
2	27	+25	Jeff Gordon		200	—	Running	—	170
3	14	+11	Denny Hamlin		200	—	Running	1	170
4	29	+25	Carl Edwards		200	—	Running	1	165
5	20	+15	Greg Biffle		200	—	Running	42	160
6	7	+1	Juan Pablo Montoya		200	—	Running	—	150
7	11	+4	Tony Stewart		200	—	Running	—	146
8	5	-3	Kurt Busch	Dodge	200	—	Running	—	142
9	1	-8	Brian Vickers		200	—	Running	—	138
10	9	-1	Clint Bowyer		200	—	Running	—	134
11	31	+20	Jamie McMurray		200	—	Running	—	130
12	25	+13	Elliott Sadler	Dodge	200	—	Running	—	127
13	2	-11	Kyle Busch		200	—	Running	9	129
14	30	+16	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.		200	—	Running	—	121
15	23	+8	David Ragan		200	—	Running	—	118
16	15	-1	Bill Elliott		200	—	Running	—	115
17	13	-4	Robby Gordon		200	—	Running	—	112
18	12	-6	Kevin Harvick		200	—	Running	—	109
19	4	-15	David Reutimann		200	—	Running	—	106
20	16	-4	Matt Kenseth		200	—	Running	—	103
21	8	-13	Kasey Kahne	Dodge	200	—	Running	—	100
22	3	-19	Jimmie Johnson		200	—	Running	146	107
23	18	-5	Ryan Newman		199	—	Running	—	94
24	37	+13	Casey Mears		199	—	Running	—	91
25	24	-1	Joey Logano		199	—	Running	—	88
26	22	-4	Jeff Burton		199	—	Running	—	85
27	28	+1	Reed Sorenson	Dodge	199	—	Running	—	82
28	17	-11	Bobby Labonte		199	—	Running	—	79
29	34	+5	Sam Hornish Jr.	Dodge	198	—	Running	—	76
30	36	+6	Michael Waltrip		198	—	Running	—	73
31	33	+2	Marcos Ambrose		198	—	Running	—	70
32	35	+3	David Gilliland		198	—	Running	—	67
33	10	-23	John Andretti		198	—	Running	—	64
34	38	+4	Paul Menard		197	—	Running	—	61
35	43	+8	Max Papis		193	—	Running	—	58
36	19	-17	Martin Truex, Jr.		192	—	Running	—	55
37	21	-16	Scott Speed		174	—	Running	—	52
38	26	-12	David Stremme	Dodge	159	—	DNF	—	49
39	6	-33	A.J. Allmendinger	Dodge	144	—	DNF	—	46
40	39	-1	Dave Blaney		23	—	DNF	—	43
41	42	+1	Sterling Marlin	Dodge	23	—	DNF	—	40
42	40	-2	Joe Nemechek		20	—	DNF	—	37
43	41	-2	Tony Raines		17	—	DNF	—	34

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 7 matched drivers, the model averaged 10.0 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
3	Denny Hamlin	8.2	3	+5.2	High Confidence
13	Kyle Busch	17.0	13	+4.0	Coinflip
22	Jimmie Johnson	19.9	22	-2.1	Moderate
24	Casey Mears	16.9	24	-7.1	Coinflip
25	Joey Logano	14.7	25	-10.3	Coinflip
36	Martin Truex, Jr.	15.4	36	-20.6	Coinflip
39	A.J. Allmendinger	18.3	39	-20.7	Moderate

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Mark Martin: has 70 career starts at Michigan International Speedway with a 13.2 avg finish (7 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 41 career starts at Michigan International Speedway with a 10.9 avg finish (5 wins), finishing P3 on the day.

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