NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Talladega

Talladega Superspeedway — April 26, 2009

Brad Keselowski

Winner

188

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Brad Keselowski won the 2009 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Talladega at Talladega Superspeedway on April 26, 2009, leading 1 of 188 laps. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. finished second; Ryan Newman rounded out the podium. The race featured 25 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, April 26, 2009

Track

Talladega Superspeedway

Season

2009

Winner

Brad Keselowski

Leaders

25 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	9	+8	Brad Keselowski	Dodge	188	—	Running	1	190
2	11	+9	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.		188	—	Running	20	175
3	25	+22	Ryan Newman		188	—	Running	10	170
4	34	+30	Marcos Ambrose		188	—	Running	—	160
5	8	+3	Scott Speed		188	—	Running	1	160
6	28	+22	Kurt Busch	Dodge	188	—	Running	13	155
7	2	-5	Greg Biffle		188	—	Running	1	151
8	30	+22	Brian Vickers		188	—	Running	2	147
9	22	+13	Joey Logano		188	—	Running	4	143
10	20	+10	Jeff Burton		188	—	Running	6	139
11	41	+30	Reed Sorenson	Dodge	188	—	Running	—	130
12	10	-2	David Ragan		188	—	Running	2	132
13	24	+11	Paul Menard		188	—	Running	2	129
14	17	+3	Joe Nemechek		188	—	Running	1	126
15	6	-9	Regan Smith		188	—	Running	—	118
16	15	-1	Casey Mears		188	—	Running	2	120
17	13	-4	Matt Kenseth		188	—	Running	9	117
18	43	+25	Max Papis		188	—	Running	—	109
19	39	+20	Elliott Sadler	Dodge	188	—	Running	3	111
20	1	-19	Juan Pablo Montoya		188	—	Running	7	108
21	31	+10	Michael Waltrip		188	—	Running	1	105
22	18	-4	Denny Hamlin		188	—	Running	28	102
23	29	+6	Tony Stewart		188	—	Running	—	94
24	16	-8	Carl Edwards		187	—	Running	2	96
25	23	-2	Kyle Busch		187	—	Running	42	98
26	33	+7	David Reutimann		187	—	Running	—	85
27	40	+13	John Andretti		187	—	Running	1	87
28	12	-16	Bobby Labonte		179	—	Running	—	79
29	42	+13	Robby Gordon		179	—	Running	—	76
30	36	+6	Jimmie Johnson		179	—	Running	2	78
31	37	+6	David Stremme	Dodge	179	—	Running	—	70
32	27	-5	Jeremy Mayfield		179	—	Running	1	72
33	3	-30	Martin Truex, Jr.		179	—	Running	24	69
34	4	-30	Sam Hornish Jr.	Dodge	179	—	Running	3	66
35	38	+3	A.J. Allmendinger	Dodge	164	—	Running	—	58
36	35	-1	Kasey Kahne	Dodge	133	—	DNF	—	55
37	14	-23	Jeff Gordon		128	—	DNF	—	52
38	19	-19	Kevin Harvick		127	—	DNF	—	49
39	5	-34	Clint Bowyer		8	—	DNF	—	46
40	26	-14	David Gilliland		6	—	DNF	—	43
41	21	-20	Scott Riggs		6	—	DNF	—	40
42	32	-10	Jamie McMurray		6	—	DNF	—	37
43	7	-36	Mark Martin		6	—	DNF	—	34

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 8 matched drivers, the model averaged 10.5 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
1	Brad Keselowski	16.0	1	+15.0	Coinflip
9	Joey Logano	20.5	9	+11.5	Moderate
16	Casey Mears	18.5	16	+2.5	Coinflip
22	Denny Hamlin	16.0	22	-6.0	Coinflip
25	Kyle Busch	15.1	25	-9.9	Coinflip
30	Jimmie Johnson	18.9	30	-11.1	Coinflip
33	Martin Truex, Jr.	20.1	33	-12.9	Coinflip
35	A.J. Allmendinger	20.1	35	-14.9	Moderate

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Brad Keselowski: has 37 career starts at Talladega Superspeedway with a 16.2 avg finish (6 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Kyle Busch: was the model’s top pick based on 54 career starts at Talladega Superspeedway with a 18.1 avg finish (4 wins), finishing P25 on the day.

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