NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Bristol

Bristol Motor Speedway — March 21, 2010

Jimmie Johnson

Winner

500

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Jimmie Johnson won the 2010 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Bristol at Bristol Motor Speedway on March 21, 2010, leading 84 of 500 laps. Tony Stewart finished second; Kurt Busch rounded out the podium. The race featured 8 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, March 21, 2010

Track

Bristol Motor Speedway

Season

2010

Winner

Jimmie Johnson

Leaders

8 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	4	+3	Jimmie Johnson		500	—	Running	84	190
2	11	+9	Tony Stewart		500	—	Running	1	175
3	2	-1	Kurt Busch	Dodge	500	—	Running	278	175
4	25	+21	Greg Biffle		500	—	Running	78	165
5	7	+2	Matt Kenseth		500	—	Running	—	155
6	8	+2	Carl Edwards		500	—	Running	—	150
7	18	+11	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.		500	—	Running	—	146
8	17	+9	Jamie McMurray		500	—	Running	—	142
9	38	+29	Kyle Busch		500	—	Running	—	138
10	14	+4	Jeff Burton		500	—	Running	2	139
11	33	+22	Kevin Harvick		500	—	Running	—	130
12	19	+7	Martin Truex, Jr.		500	—	Running	—	127
13	36	+23	Brad Keselowski	Dodge	500	—	Running	26	129
14	5	-9	Jeff Gordon		500	—	Running	—	121
15	28	+13	Brian Vickers		500	—	Running	—	118
16	21	+5	Ryan Newman		500	—	Running	—	115
17	23	+6	A.J. Allmendinger		500	—	Running	—	112
18	12	-6	Paul Menard		500	—	Running	—	109
19	15	-4	Denny Hamlin		500	—	Running	—	106
20	37	+17	Elliott Sadler		500	—	Running	—	103
21	43	+22	Bobby Labonte		500	—	Running	—	100
22	32	+10	Robby Gordon		499	—	Running	—	97
23	16	-7	David Gilliland		499	—	Running	—	94
24	31	+7	David Stremme		498	—	Running	—	91
25	41	+16	Travis Kvapil		498	—	Running	—	88
26	6	-20	Juan Pablo Montoya		498	—	Running	29	90
27	1	-26	Joey Logano		495	—	Running	2	87
28	42	+14	Kevin Conway		492	—	Running	—	79
29	30	+1	David Ragan		483	—	Running	—	76
30	34	+4	Casey Mears		483	—	Running	—	73
31	29	-2	Scott Speed		480	—	Running	—	70
32	22	-10	Sam Hornish Jr.	Dodge	477	—	Running	—	67
33	9	-24	Marcos Ambrose		448	—	Running	—	64
34	24	-10	Kasey Kahne		432	—	Running	—	61
35	13	-22	Mark Martin		408	—	DNF	—	58
36	20	-16	Regan Smith		329	—	DNF	—	55
37	40	+3	Terry Cook		285	—	DNF	—	52
38	10	-28	David Reutimann		113	—	DNF	—	49
39	27	-12	Aric Almirola		59	—	DNF	—	46
40	26	-14	Clint Bowyer		56	—	DNF	—	43
41	39	-2	Michael Waltrip		46	—	DNF	—	40
42	3	-39	Dave Blaney		40	—	DNF	—	37
43	35	-8	Joe Nemechek		30	—	DNF	—	34

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 8 matched drivers, the model averaged 8.3 positions off — close to the season average of 8.5. Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
1	Jimmie Johnson	17.7	1	+16.7	Moderate
9	Kyle Busch	15.6	9	+6.6	Coinflip
12	Martin Truex, Jr.	13.8	12	+1.8	Coinflip
13	Brad Keselowski	12.0	13	-1.0	Coinflip
17	A.J. Allmendinger	18.3	17	+1.3	Moderate
19	Denny Hamlin	6.8	19	-12.2	High Confidence
27	Joey Logano	12.1	27	-14.9	Coinflip
30	Casey Mears	18.0	30	-12.0	Moderate

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Jimmie Johnson: has 45 career starts at Bristol Motor Speedway with a 14.7 avg finish (2 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 48 career starts at Bristol Motor Speedway with a 14.3 avg finish (4 wins), finishing P19 on the day.

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