AMP Energy Juice 500 at Talladega

Talladega Superspeedway — October 31, 2010

Clint Bowyer

Winner

188

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Clint Bowyer won the 2010 AMP Energy Juice 500 at Talladega at Talladega Superspeedway on October 31, 2010, leading 19 of 188 laps. Kevin Harvick finished second; Juan Pablo Montoya rounded out the podium. The race featured 26 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, October 31, 2010

Track

Talladega Superspeedway

Season

2010

Winner

Clint Bowyer

Leaders

26 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	2	+1	Clint Bowyer		188	—	Running	19	190
2	14	+12	Kevin Harvick		188	—	Running	12	175
3	1	-2	Juan Pablo Montoya		188	—	Running	18	170
4	21	+17	David Reutimann		188	—	Running	14	165
5	25	+20	Joey Logano		188	—	Running	8	160
6	18	+12	Martin Truex, Jr.		188	—	Running	9	155
7	19	+12	Jimmie Johnson		188	—	Running	2	151
8	31	+23	Jeff Gordon		188	—	Running	1	147
9	17	+8	Denny Hamlin		188	—	Running	4	143
10	11	+1	Brad Keselowski	Dodge	188	—	Running	7	139
11	30	+19	Mark Martin		188	—	Running	2	135
12	39	+27	Regan Smith		188	—	Running	—	127
13	38	+25	Paul Menard		188	—	Running	1	129
14	33	+19	Elliott Sadler		188	—	Running	1	126
15	10	-5	Sam Hornish Jr.	Dodge	188	—	Running	5	123
16	27	+11	Matt Kenseth		188	—	Running	13	120
17	23	+6	Carl Edwards		188	—	Running	1	117
18	42	+24	Robby Gordon		188	—	Running	—	109
19	34	+15	Greg Biffle		188	—	Running	—	106
20	37	+17	Aric Almirola		188	—	Running	2	108
21	28	+7	David Ragan		188	—	Running	—	100
22	22	—	Chad McCumbee		188	—	Running	—	97
23	8	-15	Ryan Newman		188	—	Running	—	94
24	9	-15	Casey Mears		188	—	Running	—	91
25	32	+7	Kyle Busch		188	—	Running	20	93
26	16	-10	Kasey Kahne		188	—	Running	3	90
27	4	-23	Joe Nemechek		188	—	Running	1	87
28	20	-8	Michael Waltrip		188	—	Running	3	84
29	29	—	Scott Speed		188	—	Running	—	76
30	3	-27	Kurt Busch	Dodge	188	—	Running	2	78
31	26	-5	Tony Stewart		188	—	Running	—	70
32	36	+4	A.J. Allmendinger		187	—	Running	—	67
33	40	+7	David Gilliland		187	—	Running	—	64
34	35	+1	Marcos Ambrose		187	—	Running	1	66
35	15	-20	Michael McDowell		186	—	Running	—	58
36	12	-24	Jamie McMurray		183	—	Running	4	60
37	41	+4	Robert Richardson Jr.		180	—	Running	—	52
38	24	-14	Bobby Labonte		172	—	Running	—	49
39	6	-33	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.		163	—	Running	24	56
40	43	+3	Bill Elliott		140	—	DNF	—	43
41	5	-36	Jeff Burton		133	—	DNF	11	45
42	7	-35	Dave Blaney		12	—	DNF	—	37
43	13	-30	Jeff Fuller		2	—	DNF	—	34

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 9 matched drivers, the model averaged 10.8 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
5	Joey Logano	20.5	5	+15.5	Moderate
6	Martin Truex, Jr.	20.1	6	+14.1	Coinflip
7	Jimmie Johnson	18.9	7	+11.9	Coinflip
9	Denny Hamlin	16.0	9	+7.0	Coinflip
10	Brad Keselowski	16.0	10	+6.0	Coinflip
24	Casey Mears	18.5	24	-5.5	Coinflip
25	Kyle Busch	15.1	25	-9.9	Coinflip
32	A.J. Allmendinger	20.1	32	-11.9	Moderate
35	Michael McDowell	20.0	35	-15.0	Coinflip

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Clint Bowyer: has 31 career starts at Talladega Superspeedway with a 15.4 avg finish (2 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Kyle Busch: was the model’s top pick based on 54 career starts at Talladega Superspeedway with a 18.1 avg finish (4 wins), finishing P25 on the day.
Joey Logano: was the biggest surprise, finishing P5 vs predicted P21. Track history: 42 starts, 18.0 avg finish.

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