Brickyard 400 pres. by Golden Corral

Indianapolis Motor Speedway — July 25, 2010

Jamie McMurray

Winner

160

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Jamie McMurray won the 2010 Brickyard 400 pres. by Golden Corral at Indianapolis Motor Speedway on July 25, 2010, leading 16 of 160 laps. Kevin Harvick finished second; Greg Biffle rounded out the podium. The race featured 10 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, July 25, 2010

Track

Indianapolis Motor Speedway

Season

2010

Winner

Jamie McMurray

Leaders

10 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	4	+3	Jamie McMurray		160	—	Running	16	190
2	9	+7	Kevin Harvick		160	—	Running	5	175
3	7	+4	Greg Biffle		160	—	Running	38	170
4	6	+2	Clint Bowyer		160	—	Running	—	160
5	15	+10	Tony Stewart		160	—	Running	—	155
6	10	+4	Jeff Burton		160	—	Running	—	150
7	19	+12	Carl Edwards		160	—	Running	1	151
8	23	+15	Kyle Busch		160	—	Running	—	142
9	34	+25	Joey Logano		160	—	Running	—	138
10	14	+4	Kurt Busch	Dodge	160	—	Running	—	134
11	3	-8	Mark Martin		160	—	Running	10	135
12	13	+1	Matt Kenseth		160	—	Running	—	127
13	24	+11	Kasey Kahne		160	—	Running	—	124
14	26	+12	Paul Menard		160	—	Running	—	121
15	18	+3	Denny Hamlin		160	—	Running	—	118
16	16	—	A.J. Allmendinger		160	—	Running	—	115
17	5	-12	Ryan Newman		160	—	Running	—	112
18	31	+13	Bill Elliott		160	—	Running	—	109
19	11	-8	Brad Keselowski	Dodge	160	—	Running	—	106
20	28	+8	David Ragan		160	—	Running	—	103
21	41	+20	Marcos Ambrose		160	—	Running	—	100
22	2	-20	Jimmie Johnson		160	—	Running	1	102
23	8	-15	Jeff Gordon		160	—	Running	—	94
24	38	+14	Travis Kvapil		160	—	Running	—	91
25	30	+5	Scott Speed		160	—	Running	—	88
26	12	-14	Martin Truex, Jr.		159	—	Running	—	85
27	17	-10	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.		158	—	Running	—	82
28	29	+1	David Reutimann		157	—	Running	—	79
29	43	+14	Jacques Villeneuve		157	—	Running	—	76
30	25	-5	Sam Hornish Jr.	Dodge	157	—	Running	—	73
31	36	+5	Bobby Labonte		150	—	Running	—	70
32	1	-31	Juan Pablo Montoya		145	—	Running	86	77
33	22	-11	Regan Smith		135	—	DNF	—	64
34	42	+8	Kevin Conway		124	—	DNF	1	66
35	32	-3	Reed Sorenson		89	—	DNF	—	58
36	21	-15	Robby Gordon		68	—	DNF	—	55
37	39	+2	Todd Bodine		59	—	DNF	—	52
38	27	-11	Elliott Sadler		55	—	DNF	—	49
39	20	-19	Landon Cassill		52	—	DNF	1	51
40	33	-7	Joe Nemechek		33	—	DNF	1	48
41	40	-1	Dave Blaney		20	—	DNF	—	40
42	37	-5	Michael McDowell		19	—	DNF	—	37
43	35	-8	Max Papis		15	—	DNF	—	34

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 8 matched drivers, the model averaged 8.7 positions off — close to the season average of 8.5. Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
8	Kyle Busch	17.0	8	+9.0	Coinflip
9	Joey Logano	14.7	9	+5.7	Coinflip
15	Denny Hamlin	8.2	15	-6.8	High Confidence
16	A.J. Allmendinger	18.3	16	+2.3	Moderate
19	Brad Keselowski	11.2	19	-7.8	Moderate
22	Jimmie Johnson	19.9	22	-2.1	Moderate
26	Martin Truex, Jr.	15.4	26	-10.6	Coinflip
42	Michael McDowell	17.0	42	-25.0	Coinflip

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Jamie McMurray: has 15 career starts at Indianapolis Motor Speedway with a 14.3 avg finish (1 win) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 19 career starts at Indianapolis Motor Speedway with a 14.5 avg finish, finishing P15 on the day.

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