Daytona 500

Daytona International Speedway — February 20, 2011

Trevor Bayne

Winner

208

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Trevor Bayne won the 2011 Daytona 500 at Daytona International Speedway on February 20, 2011, leading 6 of 208 laps. Carl Edwards finished second; David Gilliland rounded out the podium. The race featured 22 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, February 20, 2011

Track

Daytona International Speedway

Season

2011

Winner

Trevor Bayne

Leaders

22 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	32	+31	Trevor Bayne		208	—	Running	6	0
2	22	+20	Carl Edwards		208	—	Running	—	42
3	39	+36	David Gilliland		208	—	Running	—	41
4	31	+27	Bobby Labonte		208	—	Running	2	41
5	3	-2	Kurt Busch	Dodge	208	—	Running	19	40
6	13	+7	Juan Pablo Montoya		208	—	Running	5	39
7	5	-2	Regan Smith		208	—	Running	7	38
8	10	+2	Kyle Busch		208	—	Running	3	37
9	19	+10	Paul Menard		208	—	Running	11	36
10	17	+7	Mark Martin		208	—	Running	—	34
11	15	+4	A.J. Allmendinger		208	—	Running	4	34
12	29	+17	Bill Elliott		208	—	Running	—	32
13	25	+12	Tony Stewart		208	—	Running	—	31
14	34	+20	David Ragan		208	—	Running	7	31
15	43	+28	Terry Labonte		208	—	Running	2	30
16	30	+14	Robby Gordon	Dodge	208	—	Running	7	29
17	6	-11	Clint Bowyer		208	—	Running	31	28
18	14	-4	Jamie McMurray		208	—	Running	11	27
19	20	+1	Martin Truex, Jr.		208	—	Running	17	26
20	36	+16	Steve Wallace	Dodge	208	—	Running	—	0
21	18	-3	Denny Hamlin		207	—	Running	7	24
22	21	-1	Ryan Newman		206	—	Running	37	24
23	38	+15	Joey Logano		206	—	Running	—	21
24	1	-23	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.		202	—	Running	9	21
25	11	-14	Kasey Kahne		199	—	Running	—	19
26	42	+16	Dave Blaney		198	—	Running	3	19
27	23	-4	Jimmie Johnson		189	—	Running	—	17
28	2	-26	Jeff Gordon		173	—	DNF	1	17
29	16	-13	Brad Keselowski	Dodge	166	—	DNF	9	16
30	24	-6	David Reutimann		164	—	DNF	—	14
31	27	-4	Brian Vickers		160	—	DNF	—	13
32	40	+8	Travis Kvapil		153	—	DNF	—	0
33	37	+4	Andy Lally		149	—	DNF	—	11
34	9	-25	Matt Kenseth		133	—	DNF	—	10
35	26	-9	Greg Biffle		126	—	DNF	—	9
36	4	-32	Jeff Burton		92	—	DNF	5	9
37	35	-2	Marcos Ambrose		82	—	DNF	—	7
38	28	-10	Robert Richardson Jr.		45	—	DNF	—	0
39	41	+2	Joe Nemechek		29	—	DNF	—	0
40	8	-32	Michael Waltrip		28	—	DNF	—	4
41	12	-29	Brian Keselowski		28	—	DNF	—	3
42	7	-35	Kevin Harvick		22	—	DNF	5	3
43	33	-10	J.J. Yeley		10	—	DNF	—	1

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 8 matched drivers, the model averaged 8.0 positions off — close to the season average of 8.5. Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
8	Kyle Busch	15.1	8	+7.1	Coinflip
11	A.J. Allmendinger	20.1	11	+9.1	Moderate
19	Martin Truex, Jr.	20.1	19	+1.1	Coinflip
21	Denny Hamlin	16.0	21	-5.0	Coinflip
23	Joey Logano	20.5	23	-2.5	Moderate
27	Jimmie Johnson	18.9	27	-8.1	Coinflip
29	Brad Keselowski	16.0	29	-13.0	Coinflip
43	J.J. Yeley	25.2	43	-17.8	High Confidence

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Trevor Bayne: has 23 career starts at Daytona International Speedway with a 20.7 avg finish (1 win) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Kyle Busch: was the model’s top pick based on 69 career starts at Daytona International Speedway with a 17.3 avg finish (3 wins), finishing P8 on the day.

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