NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Martinsville

Martinsville Speedway — April 3, 2011

Kevin Harvick

Winner

500

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Kevin Harvick won the 2011 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Martinsville at Martinsville Speedway on April 3, 2011, leading 6 of 500 laps. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. finished second; Kyle Busch rounded out the podium. The race featured 12 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, April 3, 2011

Track

Martinsville Speedway

Season

2011

Winner

Kevin Harvick

Leaders

12 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	9	+8	Kevin Harvick		500	—	Running	6	47
2	26	+24	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.		500	—	Running	17	43
3	11	+8	Kyle Busch		500	—	Running	151	43
4	27	+23	Juan Pablo Montoya		500	—	Running	—	40
5	21	+16	Jeff Gordon		500	—	Running	37	40
6	24	+18	Matt Kenseth		500	—	Running	—	38
7	1	-6	Jamie McMurray		500	—	Running	31	38
8	14	+6	David Ragan		500	—	Running	—	36
9	15	+6	Clint Bowyer		500	—	Running	91	36
10	12	+2	Mark Martin		500	—	Running	—	34
11	17	+6	Jimmie Johnson		500	—	Running	65	34
12	5	-7	Denny Hamlin		500	—	Running	89	33
13	4	-9	Joey Logano		499	—	Running	—	31
14	6	-8	A.J. Allmendinger		499	—	Running	6	31
15	8	-7	David Reutimann		499	—	Running	—	29
16	20	+4	Kurt Busch	Dodge	499	—	Running	—	28
17	13	-4	Brian Vickers		499	—	Running	—	27
18	23	+5	Carl Edwards		499	—	Running	3	27
19	22	+3	Brad Keselowski	Dodge	498	—	Running	—	25
20	2	-18	Ryan Newman		498	—	Running	3	25
21	33	+12	Greg Biffle		498	—	Running	—	23
22	39	+17	Ken Schrader		497	—	Running	—	22
23	34	+11	Robby Gordon	Dodge	497	—	Running	—	21
24	32	+8	Jeff Burton		495	—	Running	—	20
25	40	+15	Tony Raines		493	—	Running	—	19
26	37	+11	Landon Cassill		493	—	Running	—	0
27	7	-20	Bobby Labonte		489	—	Running	—	17
28	42	+14	Hermie Sadler		488	—	Running	—	0
29	19	-10	Marcos Ambrose		487	—	Running	—	15
30	29	-1	Dave Blaney		486	—	Running	—	14
31	10	-21	Regan Smith		476	—	Running	—	13
32	35	+3	Michael McDowell		470	—	Running	—	12
33	36	+3	David Gilliland		468	—	Running	—	11
34	28	-6	Tony Stewart		462	—	Running	—	10
35	25	-10	Trevor Bayne		460	—	Running	—	0
36	30	-6	Casey Mears		457	—	Running	—	8
37	31	-6	Travis Kvapil		443	—	Running	—	0
38	16	-22	Paul Menard		261	—	DNF	—	6
39	3	-36	Kasey Kahne		219	—	DNF	1	6
40	18	-22	Martin Truex, Jr.		219	—	DNF	—	4
41	41	—	J.J. Yeley		33	—	DNF	—	3
42	38	-4	Mike Skinner		31	—	DNF	—	0
43	43	—	Joe Nemechek		25	—	DNF	—	0

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 10 matched drivers, the model averaged 11.1 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
3	Kyle Busch	15.6	3	+12.6	Coinflip
11	Jimmie Johnson	17.7	11	+6.7	Moderate
12	Denny Hamlin	6.8	12	-5.2	High Confidence
13	Joey Logano	12.1	13	-0.9	Coinflip
14	A.J. Allmendinger	18.3	14	+4.3	Moderate
19	Brad Keselowski	12.0	19	-7.0	Coinflip
32	Michael McDowell	15.0	32	-17.0	Coinflip
36	Casey Mears	18.0	36	-18.0	Moderate
40	Martin Truex, Jr.	13.8	40	-26.2	Coinflip
41	J.J. Yeley	28.1	41	-12.9	High Confidence

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Kevin Harvick: has 64 career starts at Martinsville Speedway with a 14.1 avg finish (5 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 47 career starts at Martinsville Speedway with a 9.2 avg finish (8 wins), finishing P12 on the day.
Kyle Busch: was the biggest surprise, finishing P3 vs predicted P16. Track history: 52 starts, 12.1 avg finish.

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