NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Darlington

Darlington Raceway — May 7, 2011

Regan Smith

Winner

370

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Regan Smith won the 2011 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Darlington at Darlington Raceway on May 7, 2011, leading 11 of 370 laps. Carl Edwards finished second; Brad Keselowski rounded out the podium. The race featured 12 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Saturday, May 7, 2011

Track

Darlington Raceway

Season

2011

Winner

Regan Smith

Leaders

12 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	23	+22	Regan Smith		370	—	Running	11	47
2	4	+2	Carl Edwards		370	—	Running	57	43
3	10	+7	Brad Keselowski	Dodge	370	—	Running	—	41
4	1	-3	Kasey Kahne		370	—	Running	124	42
5	2	-3	Ryan Newman		370	—	Running	28	40
6	3	-3	Denny Hamlin		370	—	Running	—	38
7	9	+2	Tony Stewart		370	—	Running	6	38
8	22	+14	Greg Biffle		370	—	Running	—	36
9	12	+3	Jamie McMurray		370	—	Running	13	36
10	29	+19	Martin Truex, Jr.		370	—	Running	1	35
11	14	+3	Kyle Busch		370	—	Running	78	34
12	5	-7	Jeff Gordon		370	—	Running	—	32
13	6	-7	Marcos Ambrose		370	—	Running	—	31
14	30	+16	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.		370	—	Running	—	30
15	19	+4	Jimmie Johnson		370	—	Running	—	29
16	36	+20	David Reutimann		370	—	Running	—	28
17	13	-4	Kevin Harvick		370	—	Running	47	28
18	15	-3	Bobby Labonte		370	—	Running	2	27
19	28	+9	Mark Martin		369	—	Running	—	25
20	7	-13	A.J. Allmendinger		369	—	Running	—	24
21	11	-10	David Ragan		369	—	Running	—	23
22	18	-4	Paul Menard		369	—	Running	—	22
23	16	-7	Juan Pablo Montoya		368	—	Running	—	21
24	41	+17	Dave Blaney		367	—	Running	—	20
25	20	-5	Matt Kenseth		366	—	Running	—	19
26	21	-5	Travis Kvapil		365	—	Running	—	0
27	25	-2	Kurt Busch	Dodge	364	—	Running	—	17
28	40	+12	Ken Schrader		364	—	Running	2	17
29	27	-2	Landon Cassill		364	—	Running	—	0
30	32	+2	Casey Mears		364	—	Running	1	15
31	26	-5	Clint Bowyer		363	—	Running	—	13
32	37	+5	David Gilliland		362	—	Running	—	12
33	24	-9	Jeff Burton		358	—	Running	—	11
34	8	-26	Brian Vickers		332	—	Running	—	10
35	17	-18	Joey Logano		318	—	Running	—	9
36	35	-1	Tony Raines		172	—	DNF	—	8
37	42	+5	Robby Gordon	Dodge	87	—	DNF	—	7
38	33	-5	T.J. Bell		67	—	DNF	—	0
39	31	-8	J.J. Yeley		34	—	DNF	—	5
40	34	-6	Mike Skinner		29	—	DNF	—	0
41	38	-3	David Stremme		27	—	DNF	—	3
42	43	+1	Joe Nemechek		22	—	DNF	—	0
43	39	-4	Michael McDowell		7	—	DNF	—	1

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 10 matched drivers, the model averaged 9.8 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
3	Brad Keselowski	11.2	3	+8.2	Moderate
6	Denny Hamlin	8.2	6	+2.2	High Confidence
10	Martin Truex, Jr.	15.4	10	+5.4	Coinflip
11	Kyle Busch	17.0	11	+6.0	Coinflip
15	Jimmie Johnson	19.9	15	+4.9	Moderate
20	A.J. Allmendinger	18.3	20	-1.7	Moderate
30	Casey Mears	16.9	30	-13.1	Coinflip
35	Joey Logano	14.7	35	-20.3	Coinflip
39	J.J. Yeley	28.8	39	-10.2	High Confidence
43	Michael McDowell	17.0	43	-26.0	Coinflip

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Regan Smith: has 15 career starts at Darlington Raceway with a 16.8 avg finish (1 win) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 41 career starts at Darlington Raceway with a 7.6 avg finish (10 wins), finishing P6 on the day.

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