NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Daytona

Daytona International Speedway — July 2, 2011

David Ragan

Winner

170

Laps

Entries

Leaders

David Ragan won the 2011 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Daytona at Daytona International Speedway on July 2, 2011, leading 15 of 170 laps. Matt Kenseth finished second; Joey Logano rounded out the podium. The race featured 25 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Saturday, July 2, 2011

Track

Daytona International Speedway

Season

2011

Winner

David Ragan

Leaders

25 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	5	+4	David Ragan		170	—	Running	15	47
2	16	+14	Matt Kenseth		170	—	Running	14	43
3	37	+34	Joey Logano		170	—	Running	—	41
4	13	+9	Kasey Kahne		170	—	Running	19	41
5	38	+33	Kyle Busch		170	—	Running	11	40
6	4	-2	Jeff Gordon		170	—	Running	1	39
7	31	+24	Kevin Harvick		170	—	Running	16	38
8	10	+2	Paul Menard		170	—	Running	5	37
9	30	+21	Juan Pablo Montoya		170	—	Running	2	36
10	9	-1	A.J. Allmendinger		170	—	Running	—	34
11	19	+8	Tony Stewart		170	—	Running	1	34
12	20	+8	Brian Vickers		170	—	Running	—	32
13	36	+23	Denny Hamlin		170	—	Running	4	32
14	25	+11	Kurt Busch	Dodge	170	—	Running	6	31
15	26	+11	Brad Keselowski	Dodge	170	—	Running	1	30
16	39	+23	David Gilliland		170	—	Running	—	28
17	15	-2	Marcos Ambrose		170	—	Running	—	27
18	17	-1	Greg Biffle		170	—	Running	1	27
19	6	-13	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.		170	—	Running	1	26
20	8	-12	Jimmie Johnson		170	—	Running	—	24
21	12	-9	Jeff Burton		170	—	Running	3	24
22	18	-4	Jamie McMurray		170	—	Running	1	23
23	11	-12	Ryan Newman		170	—	Running	25	23
24	28	+4	Regan Smith		170	—	Running	4	21
25	23	-2	David Reutimann		170	—	Running	—	19
26	21	-5	Landon Cassill		169	—	Running	—	0
27	7	-20	Andy Lally		169	—	Running	—	17
28	41	+13	Terry Labonte		169	—	Running	—	16
29	27	-2	Travis Kvapil		169	—	Running	1	0
30	43	+13	Joe Nemechek		169	—	Running	1	0
31	24	-7	Bobby Labonte		168	—	Running	—	13
32	32	—	Casey Mears		164	—	Running	3	13
33	1	-32	Mark Martin		164	—	Running	15	12
34	42	+8	Robby Gordon	Dodge	163	—	Running	—	10
35	34	-1	Martin Truex, Jr.		162	—	Running	16	10
36	3	-33	Clint Bowyer		162	—	Running	3	9
37	14	-23	Carl Edwards		144	—	DNF	1	8
38	35	-3	Geoffrey Bodine		143	—	DNF	—	6
39	40	+1	Dave Blaney		47	—	DNF	—	5
40	29	-11	Mike Skinner		5	—	DNF	—	0
41	2	-39	Trevor Bayne		4	—	DNF	—	0
42	33	-9	Michael McDowell		2	—	DNF	—	2
43	22	-21	Kevin Conway		1	—	DNF	—	0

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 9 matched drivers, the model averaged 10.4 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
3	Joey Logano	20.5	3	+17.5	Moderate
5	Kyle Busch	15.1	5	+10.1	Coinflip
10	A.J. Allmendinger	20.1	10	+10.1	Moderate
13	Denny Hamlin	16.0	13	+3.0	Coinflip
15	Brad Keselowski	16.0	15	+1.0	Coinflip
20	Jimmie Johnson	18.9	20	-1.1	Coinflip
32	Casey Mears	18.5	32	-13.5	Coinflip
35	Martin Truex, Jr.	20.1	35	-14.9	Coinflip
42	Michael McDowell	20.0	42	-22.0	Coinflip

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

David Ragan: has 38 career starts at Daytona International Speedway with a 18.6 avg finish (1 win) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Kyle Busch: was the model’s top pick based on 69 career starts at Daytona International Speedway with a 17.3 avg finish (3 wins), finishing P5 on the day.
Joey Logano: was the biggest surprise, finishing P3 vs predicted P21. Track history: 44 starts, 15.5 avg finish.

Track Preview →