NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Kansas

Kansas Speedway — October 9, 2011

Jimmie Johnson

Winner

272

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Jimmie Johnson won the 2011 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Kansas at Kansas Speedway on October 9, 2011, leading 197 of 272 laps. Kasey Kahne finished second; Brad Keselowski rounded out the podium. The race featured 9 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, October 9, 2011

Track

Kansas Speedway

Season

2011

Winner

Jimmie Johnson

Leaders

9 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	19	+18	Jimmie Johnson		272	—	Running	197	48
2	5	+3	Kasey Kahne		272	—	Running	—	42
3	12	+9	Brad Keselowski	Dodge	272	—	Running	5	42
4	4	—	Matt Kenseth		272	—	Running	26	41
5	2	-3	Carl Edwards		272	—	Running	—	39
6	14	+8	Kevin Harvick		272	—	Running	—	38
7	24	+17	Clint Bowyer		272	—	Running	—	37
8	1	-7	Greg Biffle		272	—	Running	23	37
9	21	+12	Marcos Ambrose		272	—	Running	—	35
10	9	-1	Mark Martin		272	—	Running	—	34
11	3	-8	Kyle Busch		272	—	Running	8	34
12	6	-6	Paul Menard		272	—	Running	—	32
13	17	+4	Kurt Busch	Dodge	272	—	Running	6	32
14	18	+4	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.		272	—	Running	—	30
15	23	+8	Tony Stewart		272	—	Running	—	29
16	7	-9	Denny Hamlin		272	—	Running	—	28
17	41	+24	Landon Cassill		272	—	Running	2	0
18	11	-7	Ryan Newman		272	—	Running	—	26
19	15	-4	Brian Vickers		271	—	Running	—	25
20	13	-7	David Ragan		271	—	Running	—	24
21	31	+10	Jeff Burton		271	—	Running	—	23
22	29	+7	Jamie McMurray		271	—	Running	—	22
23	34	+11	Juan Pablo Montoya		271	—	Running	—	21
24	16	-8	Regan Smith		271	—	Running	—	20
25	22	-3	A.J. Allmendinger		270	—	Running	—	19
26	26	—	Austin Dillon		270	—	Running	—	0
27	36	+9	Travis Kvapil		270	—	Running	3	0
28	42	+14	Mike Bliss		270	—	Running	—	0
29	20	-9	Joey Logano		270	—	Running	—	15
30	33	+3	Bobby Labonte		269	—	Running	—	14
31	38	+7	Dave Blaney		269	—	Running	—	13
32	30	-2	David Gilliland		268	—	Running	—	12
33	25	-8	Scott Speed		266	—	Running	—	0
34	10	-24	Jeff Gordon		264	—	Running	2	11
35	27	-8	David Reutimann		264	—	Running	—	9
36	8	-28	Martin Truex, Jr.		241	—	Running	—	8
37	35	-2	Andy Lally		72	—	DNF	—	7
38	39	+1	Reed Sorenson	Dodge	37	—	DNF	—	0
39	40	+1	Michael McDowell		30	—	DNF	—	5
40	32	-8	David Stremme		27	—	DNF	—	4
41	43	+2	Joe Nemechek		18	—	DNF	—	0
42	37	-5	Casey Mears		16	—	DNF	—	2
43	28	-15	J.J. Yeley		12	—	DNF	—	1

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 11 matched drivers, the model averaged 13.9 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
1	Jimmie Johnson	19.9	1	+18.9	Moderate
3	Brad Keselowski	11.2	3	+8.2	Moderate
11	Kyle Busch	17.0	11	+6.0	Coinflip
16	Denny Hamlin	8.2	16	-7.8	High Confidence
25	A.J. Allmendinger	18.3	25	-6.7	Moderate
26	Austin Dillon	17.1	26	-8.9	Coinflip
29	Joey Logano	14.7	29	-14.3	Coinflip
36	Martin Truex, Jr.	15.4	36	-20.6	Coinflip
39	Michael McDowell	17.0	39	-22.0	Coinflip
42	Casey Mears	16.9	42	-25.1	Coinflip
43	J.J. Yeley	28.8	43	-14.2	High Confidence

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Jimmie Johnson: has 26 career starts at Kansas Speedway with a 9.2 avg finish (3 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 42 career starts at Kansas Speedway with a 12.9 avg finish (5 wins), finishing P16 on the day.

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