NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Talladega

Talladega Superspeedway, October 7, 2012

Matt Kenseth

Winner

189

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Matt Kenseth won the 2012 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Talladega at Talladega Superspeedway on October 7, 2012, leading 33 of 189 laps. Jeff Gordon finished second; Kyle Busch rounded out the podium. The race featured 18 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, October 7, 2012

Track

Talladega Superspeedway

Season

2012

Winner

Matt Kenseth

Leaders

18 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	15	+14	Matt Kenseth		189	—	Running	33	47
2	6	+4	Jeff Gordon		189	—	Running	7	43
3	13	+10	Kyle Busch		189	—	Running	6	42
4	25	+21	David Ragan		189	—	Running	1	41
5	28	+23	Regan Smith		189	—	Running	—	39
6	5	-1	Greg Biffle		189	—	Running	16	39
7	22	+15	Brad Keselowski	Dodge	189	—	Running	—	37
8	36	+28	Travis Kvapil		189	—	Running	3	37
9	2	-7	Ryan Newman		189	—	Running	—	35
10	26	+16	Jeff Burton		189	—	Running	3	35
11	21	+10	Kevin Harvick		189	—	Running	12	34
12	1	-11	Kasey Kahne		189	—	Running	9	33
13	9	-4	Martin Truex, Jr.		189	—	Running	—	31
14	23	+9	Denny Hamlin		189	—	Running	—	30
15	32	+17	David Gilliland		189	—	Running	—	29
16	31	+15	Terry Labonte		189	—	Running	—	28
17	17	—	Jimmie Johnson		189	—	Running	11	28
18	40	+22	Bobby Labonte		189	—	Running	—	26
19	18	-1	Aric Almirola		189	—	Running	—	25
20	12	-8	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.		189	—	Running	18	25
21	8	-13	Trevor Bayne		189	—	Running	5	0
22	4	-18	Tony Stewart		188	—	Running	1	23
23	3	-20	Clint Bowyer		188	—	Running	8	22
24	10	-14	Sam Hornish Jr.	Dodge	188	—	Running	—	0
25	11	-14	Michael Waltrip		188	—	Running	—	19
26	19	-7	Casey Mears		188	—	Running	10	19
27	20	-7	Marcos Ambrose		188	—	Running	2	18
28	16	-12	Paul Menard		188	—	Running	—	16
29	39	+10	Dave Blaney		188	—	Running	—	15
30	38	+8	Landon Cassill		188	—	Running	—	14
31	34	+3	Michael McDowell		188	—	Running	—	13
32	14	-18	Joey Logano		187	—	Running	—	12
33	30	-3	David Stremme		187	—	Running	—	11
34	24	-10	Jamie McMurray		184	—	Running	38	12
35	43	+8	Robert Richardson Jr.		180	—	Running	—	0
36	7	-29	Carl Edwards		179	—	Running	—	8
37	41	+4	David Reutimann		162	—	Running	—	7
38	27	-11	Juan Pablo Montoya		156	—	DNF	—	6
39	29	-10	Kurt Busch		98	—	DNF	6	6
40	42	+2	Cole Whitt		16	—	DNF	—	0
41	37	-4	Joe Nemechek		12	—	DNF	—	0
42	35	-7	Timmy Hill		8	—	DNF	—	0
43	33	-10	Josh Wise		5	—	DNF	—	1

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 8 matched drivers, the model averaged 9.2 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
7	Brad Keselowski	18.5	7	+11.5	Coinflip
13	Martin Truex, Jr.	20.5	13	+7.5	Coinflip
14	Denny Hamlin	15.1	14	+1.1	Coinflip
17	Jimmie Johnson	20.0	17	+3.0	Coinflip
26	Casey Mears	20.0	26	-6.0	Coinflip
31	Michael McDowell	19.2	31	-11.8	Coinflip
32	Joey Logano	18.5	32	-13.5	Coinflip
42	Timmy Hill	22.8	42	-19.2	High Confidence

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Matt Kenseth: has 44 career starts at Talladega Superspeedway with a 18.8 avg finish (1 win) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 44 career starts at Talladega Superspeedway with a 17.8 avg finish (2 wins), finishing P14 on the day.
Brad Keselowski: was the biggest surprise, finishing P7 vs predicted P19. Track history: 38 starts, 16.0 avg finish.

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