Daytona 500

Daytona International Speedway — February 26, 2012

Matt Kenseth

Winner

202

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Matt Kenseth won the 2012 Daytona 500 at Daytona International Speedway on February 26, 2012, leading 50 of 202 laps. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. finished second; Greg Biffle rounded out the podium. The race featured 13 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, February 26, 2012

Track

Daytona International Speedway

Season

2012

Winner

Matt Kenseth

Leaders

13 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	4	+3	Matt Kenseth		202	—	Running	50	47
2	5	+3	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.		202	—	Running	—	42
3	2	-1	Greg Biffle		202	—	Running	44	42
4	31	+27	Denny Hamlin		202	—	Running	57	42
5	9	+4	Jeff Burton		202	—	Running	24	40
6	37	+31	Paul Menard		202	—	Running	2	39
7	13	+6	Kevin Harvick		202	—	Running	—	37
8	1	-7	Carl Edwards		202	—	Running	—	36
9	12	+3	Joey Logano		202	—	Running	2	36
10	22	+12	Mark Martin		202	—	Running	2	35
11	30	+19	Clint Bowyer		202	—	Running	—	33
12	26	+14	Martin Truex, Jr.		202	—	Running	7	33
13	7	-6	Marcos Ambrose		202	—	Running	—	31
14	32	+18	Bobby Labonte		202	—	Running	—	30
15	24	+9	Dave Blaney		202	—	Running	6	30
16	3	-13	Tony Stewart		202	—	Running	2	29
17	14	-3	Kyle Busch		202	—	Running	—	27
18	43	+25	Terry Labonte		202	—	Running	3	27
19	41	+22	Tony Raines		202	—	Running	—	25
20	21	+1	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.		202	—	Running	—	0
21	18	-3	Ryan Newman		202	—	Running	—	23
22	39	+17	Landon Cassill		202	—	Running	—	22
23	33	+10	David Gilliland		201	—	Running	—	21
24	6	-18	Regan Smith		200	—	Running	2	21
25	36	+11	Casey Mears		199	—	Running	—	19
26	38	+12	David Reutimann		196	—	Running	—	18
27	10	-17	Elliott Sadler		196	—	Running	—	0
28	34	+6	Joe Nemechek		194	—	Running	—	0
29	20	-9	Kasey Kahne		189	—	Running	—	15
30	11	-19	Michael McDowell		189	—	Running	—	14
31	19	-12	Jamie McMurray		188	—	Running	—	13
32	23	-9	Brad Keselowski	Dodge	187	—	Running	—	12
33	27	-6	Aric Almirola		187	—	Running	—	11
34	15	-19	A.J. Allmendinger	Dodge	177	—	Running	—	10
35	40	+5	Trevor Bayne		164	—	DNF	—	0
36	35	-1	Juan Pablo Montoya		159	—	DNF	—	8
37	42	+5	David Stremme		156	—	DNF	—	7
38	29	-9	Danica Patrick		138	—	DNF	—	0
39	28	-11	Kurt Busch		113	—	DNF	—	5
40	16	-24	Jeff Gordon		81	—	DNF	1	5
41	17	-24	Robby Gordon	Dodge	25	—	DNF	—	3
42	8	-34	Jimmie Johnson		1	—	DNF	—	2
43	25	-18	David Ragan		1	—	DNF	—	1

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 10 matched drivers, the model averaged 10.4 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
4	Denny Hamlin	16.0	4	+12.0	Coinflip
9	Joey Logano	20.5	9	+11.5	Moderate
12	Martin Truex, Jr.	20.1	12	+8.1	Coinflip
17	Kyle Busch	15.1	17	-1.9	Coinflip
20	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	18.5	20	-1.5	Coinflip
25	Casey Mears	18.5	25	-6.5	Coinflip
30	Michael McDowell	20.0	30	-10.0	Coinflip
32	Brad Keselowski	16.0	32	-16.0	Coinflip
34	A.J. Allmendinger	20.1	34	-13.9	Moderate
42	Jimmie Johnson	18.9	42	-23.1	Coinflip

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Matt Kenseth: has 50 career starts at Daytona International Speedway with a 15.6 avg finish (4 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Kyle Busch: was the model’s top pick based on 69 career starts at Daytona International Speedway with a 17.3 avg finish (3 wins), finishing P17 on the day.
Denny Hamlin: was the biggest surprise, finishing P4 vs predicted P16. Track history: 48 starts, 17.1 avg finish.

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