Ford 400 at Homestead-Miami

Homestead-Miami Speedway — November 18, 2012

Jeff Gordon

Winner

267

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Jeff Gordon won the 2012 Ford 400 at Homestead-Miami at Homestead-Miami Speedway on November 18, 2012, leading 14 of 267 laps. Clint Bowyer finished second; Ryan Newman rounded out the podium. The race featured 8 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, November 18, 2012

Track

Homestead-Miami Speedway

Season

2012

Winner

Jeff Gordon

Leaders

8 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	15	+14	Jeff Gordon		267	—	Running	14	47
2	6	+4	Clint Bowyer		267	—	Running	—	42
3	19	+16	Ryan Newman		267	—	Running	3	42
4	8	+4	Kyle Busch		267	—	Running	191	42
5	13	+8	Greg Biffle		267	—	Running	—	39
6	7	+1	Martin Truex, Jr.		267	—	Running	11	39
7	5	-2	Aric Almirola		267	—	Running	—	37
8	23	+15	Kevin Harvick		267	—	Running	—	36
9	26	+17	Kurt Busch		267	—	Running	—	35
10	16	+6	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.		267	—	Running	—	34
11	18	+7	Paul Menard		267	—	Running	—	33
12	4	-8	Carl Edwards		267	—	Running	—	32
13	2	-11	Marcos Ambrose		267	—	Running	14	32
14	1	-13	Joey Logano		267	—	Running	—	30
15	3	-12	Brad Keselowski	Dodge	266	—	Running	—	29
16	9	-7	Mark Martin		266	—	Running	—	28
17	35	+18	Tony Stewart		266	—	Running	—	27
18	11	-7	Matt Kenseth		266	—	Running	2	27
19	33	+14	Jeff Burton		266	—	Running	—	25
20	14	-6	Jamie McMurray		266	—	Running	—	24
21	12	-9	Kasey Kahne		266	—	Running	7	24
22	17	-5	Sam Hornish Jr.	Dodge	266	—	Running	—	0
23	20	-3	Trevor Bayne		266	—	Running	—	0
24	41	+17	Denny Hamlin		266	—	Running	—	20
25	32	+7	Bobby Labonte		265	—	Running	—	19
26	38	+12	Travis Kvapil		265	—	Running	—	18
27	30	+3	Landon Cassill		265	—	Running	—	17
28	21	-7	Juan Pablo Montoya		264	—	Running	—	16
29	28	-1	Casey Mears		264	—	Running	—	15
30	24	-6	Regan Smith		264	—	Running	—	14
31	34	+3	David Ragan		263	—	Running	—	13
32	31	-1	Dave Blaney		263	—	Running	—	12
33	40	+7	David Gilliland		262	—	Running	—	11
34	37	+3	David Reutimann		261	—	Running	—	10
35	39	+4	J.J. Yeley		261	—	Running	—	9
36	10	-26	Jimmie Johnson		224	—	DNF	25	9
37	42	+5	Ken Schrader		219	—	DNF	—	7
38	22	-16	David Stremme		183	—	DNF	—	6
39	27	-12	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.		157	—	DNF	—	0
40	36	-4	Josh Wise		38	—	DNF	—	4
41	25	-16	Michael McDowell		34	—	DNF	—	3
42	43	+1	Scott Riggs		23	—	DNF	—	2
43	29	-14	Mike Bliss		16	—	DNF	—	0

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 10 matched drivers, the model averaged 12.0 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
4	Kyle Busch	17.0	4	+13.0	Coinflip
6	Martin Truex, Jr.	15.4	6	+9.4	Coinflip
14	Joey Logano	14.7	14	+0.7	Coinflip
15	Brad Keselowski	11.2	15	-3.8	Moderate
24	Denny Hamlin	8.2	24	-15.8	High Confidence
29	Casey Mears	16.9	29	-12.1	Coinflip
35	J.J. Yeley	28.8	35	-6.2	High Confidence
36	Jimmie Johnson	19.9	36	-16.1	Moderate
39	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	19.9	39	-19.1	Moderate
41	Michael McDowell	17.0	41	-24.0	Coinflip

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Jeff Gordon: has 18 career starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway with a 9.8 avg finish (2 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 27 career starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway with a 10.5 avg finish (3 wins), finishing P24 on the day.
Kyle Busch: was the biggest surprise, finishing P4 vs predicted P17. Track history: 38 starts, 12.1 avg finish.

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