NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Martinsville

Martinsville Speedway — October 28, 2012

Jimmie Johnson

Winner

500

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Jimmie Johnson won the 2012 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Martinsville at Martinsville Speedway on October 28, 2012, leading 193 of 500 laps. Kyle Busch finished second; Kasey Kahne rounded out the podium. The race featured 9 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, October 28, 2012

Track

Martinsville Speedway

Season

2012

Winner

Jimmie Johnson

Leaders

9 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	1	—	Jimmie Johnson		500	—	Running	193	48
2	3	+1	Kyle Busch		500	—	Running	—	42
3	15	+12	Kasey Kahne		500	—	Running	12	42
4	10	+6	Aric Almirola		500	—	Running	—	40
5	8	+3	Clint Bowyer		500	—	Running	154	40
6	32	+26	Brad Keselowski	Dodge	500	—	Running	8	39
7	11	+4	Jeff Gordon		500	—	Running	92	38
8	2	-6	Brian Vickers		500	—	Running	27	37
9	18	+9	Bobby Labonte		500	—	Running	—	35
10	30	+20	Greg Biffle		500	—	Running	—	34
11	17	+6	Ryan Newman		500	—	Running	—	33
12	9	-3	Paul Menard		500	—	Running	—	32
13	27	+14	Sam Hornish Jr.	Dodge	500	—	Running	—	0
14	6	-8	Matt Kenseth		500	—	Running	1	31
15	19	+4	Kurt Busch		500	—	Running	—	29
16	14	-2	Joey Logano		500	—	Running	—	28
17	24	+7	Jamie McMurray		500	—	Running	—	27
18	23	+5	Carl Edwards		500	—	Running	—	26
19	34	+15	Landon Cassill		500	—	Running	—	25
20	25	+5	Juan Pablo Montoya		500	—	Running	—	24
21	20	-1	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.		500	—	Running	—	23
22	4	-18	Jeff Burton		499	—	Running	—	22
23	12	-11	Martin Truex, Jr.		499	—	Running	—	21
24	33	+9	Marcos Ambrose		499	—	Running	—	20
25	22	-3	Casey Mears		499	—	Running	—	19
26	16	-10	David Ragan		499	—	Running	—	18
27	7	-20	Tony Stewart		498	—	Running	—	17
28	26	-2	A.J. Allmendinger		498	—	Running	—	16
29	28	-1	Ken Schrader		495	—	Running	—	15
30	35	+5	David Gilliland		494	—	Running	—	14
31	41	+10	Travis Kvapil		492	—	Running	1	14
32	13	-19	Kevin Harvick		473	—	Running	—	12
33	5	-28	Denny Hamlin		466	—	Running	12	12
34	42	+8	Stephen Leicht		253	—	DNF	—	10
35	37	+2	Dave Blaney		193	—	DNF	—	9
36	29	-7	David Reutimann		185	—	DNF	—	8
37	43	+6	Scott Speed		116	—	DNF	—	7
38	31	-7	Josh Wise		85	—	DNF	—	6
39	21	-18	Michael McDowell		61	—	DNF	—	5
40	40	—	David Stremme		46	—	DNF	—	4
41	38	-3	Joe Nemechek		35	—	DNF	—	0
42	36	-6	Scott Riggs		22	—	DNF	—	2
43	39	-4	Reed Sorenson		19	—	DNF	—	0

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 9 matched drivers, the model averaged 12.9 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
1	Jimmie Johnson	17.7	1	+16.7	Moderate
2	Kyle Busch	15.6	2	+13.6	Coinflip
6	Brad Keselowski	12.0	6	+6.0	Coinflip
16	Joey Logano	12.1	16	-3.9	Coinflip
23	Martin Truex, Jr.	13.8	23	-9.2	Coinflip
25	Casey Mears	18.0	25	-7.0	Moderate
28	A.J. Allmendinger	18.3	28	-9.7	Moderate
33	Denny Hamlin	6.8	33	-26.2	High Confidence
39	Michael McDowell	15.0	39	-24.0	Coinflip

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Jimmie Johnson: has 36 career starts at Martinsville Speedway with a 8.7 avg finish (9 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 47 career starts at Martinsville Speedway with a 9.2 avg finish (8 wins), finishing P33 on the day.

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