NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Kansas

Kansas Speedway — October 21, 2012

Matt Kenseth

Winner

267

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Matt Kenseth won the 2012 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Kansas at Kansas Speedway on October 21, 2012, leading 78 of 267 laps. Martin Truex, Jr. finished second; Paul Menard rounded out the podium. The race featured 10 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, October 21, 2012

Track

Kansas Speedway

Season

2012

Winner

Matt Kenseth

Leaders

10 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	12	+11	Matt Kenseth		267	—	Running	78	48
2	16	+14	Martin Truex, Jr.		267	—	Running	—	42
3	14	+11	Paul Menard		267	—	Running	6	42
4	1	-3	Kasey Kahne		267	—	Running	1	41
5	33	+28	Tony Stewart		267	—	Running	—	39
6	3	-3	Clint Bowyer		267	—	Running	5	39
7	39	+32	Regan Smith		267	—	Running	—	37
8	25	+17	Brad Keselowski	Dodge	267	—	Running	—	36
9	7	-2	Jimmie Johnson		267	—	Running	44	36
10	19	+9	Jeff Gordon		267	—	Running	2	35
11	10	-1	Kevin Harvick		267	—	Running	—	33
12	18	+6	Marcos Ambrose		267	—	Running	—	32
13	9	-4	Denny Hamlin		267	—	Running	—	31
14	17	+3	Carl Edwards		267	—	Running	—	30
15	21	+6	Jamie McMurray		267	—	Running	—	29
16	24	+8	Juan Pablo Montoya		267	—	Running	—	28
17	31	+14	Travis Kvapil		267	—	Running	1	28
18	26	+8	Landon Cassill		267	—	Running	—	26
19	8	-11	Joey Logano		267	—	Running	—	25
20	37	+17	David Ragan		267	—	Running	—	24
21	32	+11	Trevor Bayne		267	—	Running	—	0
22	42	+20	Timmy Hill		267	—	Running	—	0
23	38	+15	David Gilliland		266	—	Running	1	22
24	2	-22	Mark Martin		266	—	Running	60	21
25	29	+4	Kurt Busch		265	—	Running	—	19
26	15	-11	Sam Hornish Jr.	Dodge	234	—	Running	—	0
27	11	-16	Greg Biffle		227	—	Running	—	17
28	20	-8	Jeff Burton		214	—	DNF	—	16
29	5	-24	Aric Almirola		212	—	DNF	69	16
30	6	-24	Ryan Newman		188	—	DNF	—	14
31	4	-27	Kyle Busch		181	—	DNF	—	13
32	40	+8	Danica Patrick		154	—	DNF	—	0
33	22	-11	Bobby Labonte		140	—	DNF	—	11
34	35	+1	Scott Speed		77	—	DNF	—	10
35	13	-22	A.J. Allmendinger		69	—	DNF	—	9
36	30	-6	Mike Bliss		47	—	DNF	—	0
37	28	-9	Casey Mears		29	—	DNF	—	7
38	43	+5	Kelly Bires		28	—	DNF	—	6
39	41	+2	Dave Blaney		25	—	DNF	—	5
40	36	-4	Joe Nemechek		22	—	DNF	—	0
41	34	-7	Reed Sorenson		18	—	DNF	—	0
42	27	-15	J.J. Yeley		11	—	DNF	—	2
43	23	-20	Michael McDowell		7	—	DNF	—	1

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 11 matched drivers, the model averaged 11.7 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
2	Martin Truex, Jr.	15.4	2	+13.4	Coinflip
8	Brad Keselowski	11.2	8	+3.2	Moderate
9	Jimmie Johnson	19.9	9	+10.9	Moderate
13	Denny Hamlin	8.2	13	-4.8	High Confidence
19	Joey Logano	14.7	19	-4.3	Coinflip
22	Timmy Hill	23.9	22	+1.9	High Confidence
31	Kyle Busch	17.0	31	-14.0	Coinflip
35	A.J. Allmendinger	18.3	35	-16.7	Moderate
37	Casey Mears	16.9	37	-20.1	Coinflip
42	J.J. Yeley	28.8	42	-13.2	High Confidence
43	Michael McDowell	17.0	43	-26.0	Coinflip

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Matt Kenseth: has 33 career starts at Kansas Speedway with a 11.5 avg finish (3 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 42 career starts at Kansas Speedway with a 12.9 avg finish (5 wins), finishing P13 on the day.
Martin Truex, Jr.: was the biggest surprise, finishing P2 vs predicted P15. Track history: 34 starts, 12.5 avg finish.

Track Preview →