NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Kansas

Kansas Speedway — April 22, 2012

Denny Hamlin

Winner

267

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Denny Hamlin won the 2012 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Kansas at Kansas Speedway on April 22, 2012, leading 32 of 267 laps. Martin Truex, Jr. finished second; Jimmie Johnson rounded out the podium. The race featured 9 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, April 22, 2012

Track

Kansas Speedway

Season

2012

Winner

Denny Hamlin

Leaders

9 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	4	+3	Denny Hamlin		267	—	Running	32	47
2	6	+4	Martin Truex, Jr.		267	—	Running	173	44
3	15	+12	Jimmie Johnson		267	—	Running	2	42
4	18	+14	Matt Kenseth		267	—	Running	2	41
5	17	+12	Greg Biffle		267	—	Running	—	39
6	2	-4	Kevin Harvick		267	—	Running	—	38
7	7	—	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.		267	—	Running	—	37
8	9	+1	Kasey Kahne		267	—	Running	—	36
9	21	+12	Carl Edwards		267	—	Running	1	36
10	25	+15	Kyle Busch		267	—	Running	—	34
11	11	—	Brad Keselowski	Dodge	267	—	Running	2	34
12	39	+27	Juan Pablo Montoya		267	—	Running	4	33
13	23	+10	Tony Stewart		267	—	Running	—	31
14	36	+22	Jamie McMurray		266	—	Running	—	30
15	3	-12	Joey Logano		266	—	Running	—	29
16	28	+12	Marcos Ambrose		266	—	Running	—	28
17	14	-3	Kurt Busch		266	—	Running	—	27
18	19	+1	Paul Menard		266	—	Running	—	26
19	10	-9	Sam Hornish Jr.	Dodge	266	—	Running	7	0
20	13	-7	Ryan Newman		265	—	Running	—	24
21	20	-1	Jeff Gordon		264	—	Running	—	23
22	12	-10	Jeff Burton		264	—	Running	—	22
23	26	+3	Aric Almirola		264	—	Running	—	21
24	29	+5	Regan Smith		263	—	Running	—	20
25	35	+10	Travis Kvapil		263	—	Running	—	19
26	40	+14	Casey Mears		263	—	Running	—	18
27	22	-5	David Gilliland		263	—	Running	—	17
28	42	+14	Reed Sorenson		263	—	Running	—	0
29	16	-13	David Reutimann		262	—	Running	—	15
30	27	-3	David Ragan		262	—	Running	—	14
31	31	—	J.J. Yeley		261	—	Running	—	13
32	1	-31	A.J. Allmendinger	Dodge	257	—	Running	44	13
33	5	-28	Mark Martin		255	—	Running	—	11
34	32	-2	Landon Cassill		214	—	DNF	—	10
35	30	-5	Bobby Labonte		132	—	DNF	—	9
36	8	-28	Clint Bowyer		125	—	DNF	—	8
37	33	-4	Dave Blaney		82	—	DNF	—	7
38	24	-14	David Stremme		80	—	DNF	—	6
39	38	-1	Josh Wise		65	—	DNF	—	5
40	37	-3	Michael McDowell		58	—	DNF	—	4
41	41	—	Joe Nemechek		47	—	DNF	—	0
42	43	+1	Mike Bliss		27	—	DNF	—	0
43	34	-9	Scott Riggs		18	—	DNF	—	1

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 10 matched drivers, the model averaged 9.3 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
1	Denny Hamlin	8.2	1	+7.2	High Confidence
2	Martin Truex, Jr.	15.4	2	+13.4	Coinflip
3	Jimmie Johnson	19.9	3	+16.9	Moderate
10	Kyle Busch	17.0	10	+7.0	Coinflip
11	Brad Keselowski	11.2	11	+0.2	Moderate
15	Joey Logano	14.7	15	-0.3	Coinflip
26	Casey Mears	16.9	26	-9.1	Coinflip
31	J.J. Yeley	28.8	31	-2.2	High Confidence
32	A.J. Allmendinger	18.3	32	-13.7	Moderate
40	Michael McDowell	17.0	40	-23.0	Coinflip

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Denny Hamlin: has 42 career starts at Kansas Speedway with a 12.9 avg finish (5 wins) — the model correctly identified this strength.
Jimmie Johnson: was the biggest surprise, finishing P3 vs predicted P20. Track history: 26 starts, 9.2 avg finish.

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