NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Martinsville

Martinsville Speedway — April 1, 2012

Ryan Newman

Winner

515

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Ryan Newman won the 2012 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Martinsville at Martinsville Speedway on April 1, 2012, leading 12 of 515 laps. A.J. Allmendinger finished second; Dale Earnhardt, Jr. rounded out the podium. The race featured 10 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, April 1, 2012

Track

Martinsville Speedway

Season

2012

Winner

Ryan Newman

Leaders

10 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	5	+4	Ryan Newman		515	—	Running	12	47
2	27	+25	A.J. Allmendinger	Dodge	515	—	Running	—	42
3	14	+11	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.		515	—	Running	3	42
4	21	+17	Matt Kenseth		515	—	Running	1	41
5	13	+8	Martin Truex, Jr.		515	—	Running	—	39
6	3	-3	Denny Hamlin		515	—	Running	31	39
7	15	+8	Tony Stewart		515	—	Running	—	37
8	19	+11	Aric Almirola		515	—	Running	3	37
9	7	-2	Brad Keselowski	Dodge	515	—	Running	2	36
10	4	-6	Clint Bowyer		515	—	Running	2	35
11	28	+17	Carl Edwards		515	—	Running	—	33
12	22	+10	Jimmie Johnson		515	—	Running	112	33
13	26	+13	Greg Biffle		514	—	Running	—	31
14	9	-5	Jeff Gordon		514	—	Running	328	32
15	12	-3	Marcos Ambrose		513	—	Running	—	29
16	17	+1	Regan Smith		513	—	Running	—	28
17	16	-1	Bobby Labonte		513	—	Running	—	27
18	6	-12	Brian Vickers		513	—	Running	—	26
19	2	-17	Kevin Harvick		513	—	Running	21	26
20	20	—	Jamie McMurray		513	—	Running	—	24
21	32	+11	Juan Pablo Montoya		512	—	Running	—	23
22	18	-4	Jeff Burton		512	—	Running	—	22
23	10	-13	Joey Logano		511	—	Running	—	21
24	24	—	David Ragan		511	—	Running	—	20
25	25	—	Casey Mears		511	—	Running	—	19
26	11	-15	Paul Menard		510	—	Running	—	18
27	34	+7	Travis Kvapil		510	—	Running	—	17
28	38	+10	David Gilliland		509	—	Running	—	16
29	31	+2	Landon Cassill		507	—	Running	—	15
30	39	+9	David Stremme		506	—	Running	—	14
31	41	+10	Hermie Sadler		505	—	Running	—	13
32	36	+4	Ken Schrader		503	—	Running	—	12
33	40	+7	Kurt Busch		497	—	Running	—	11
34	42	+8	Dave Blaney		439	—	Running	—	10
35	29	-6	David Reutimann		436	—	DNF	—	9
36	8	-28	Kyle Busch		435	—	DNF	—	8
37	43	+6	J.J. Yeley		359	—	DNF	—	7
38	1	-37	Kasey Kahne		256	—	DNF	—	6
39	37	-2	Joe Nemechek		74	—	DNF	—	0
40	23	-17	Michael McDowell		60	—	DNF	—	4
41	30	-11	Josh Wise		49	—	DNF	—	3
42	33	-9	Scott Riggs		30	—	DNF	—	2
43	35	-8	Reed Sorenson		25	—	DNF	—	0

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 10 matched drivers, the model averaged 10.7 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
2	A.J. Allmendinger	18.3	2	+16.3	Moderate
5	Martin Truex, Jr.	13.8	5	+8.8	Coinflip
6	Denny Hamlin	6.8	6	+0.8	High Confidence
9	Brad Keselowski	12.0	9	+3.0	Coinflip
12	Jimmie Johnson	17.7	12	+5.7	Moderate
23	Joey Logano	12.1	23	-10.9	Coinflip
25	Casey Mears	18.0	25	-7.0	Moderate
36	Kyle Busch	15.6	36	-20.4	Coinflip
37	J.J. Yeley	28.1	37	-8.9	High Confidence
40	Michael McDowell	15.0	40	-25.0	Coinflip

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Ryan Newman: has 40 career starts at Martinsville Speedway with a 15.3 avg finish (1 win) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 47 career starts at Martinsville Speedway with a 9.2 avg finish (8 wins), finishing P6 on the day.
A.J. Allmendinger: was the biggest surprise, finishing P2 vs predicted P18. Track history: 30 starts, 19.4 avg finish.

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