NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Michigan

Michigan International Speedway — June 17, 2012

Dale Earnhardt, Jr.

Winner

200

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Dale Earnhardt, Jr. won the 2012 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Michigan at Michigan International Speedway on June 17, 2012, leading 95 of 200 laps. Tony Stewart finished second; Matt Kenseth rounded out the podium. The race featured 14 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, June 17, 2012

Track

Michigan International Speedway

Season

2012

Winner

Dale Earnhardt, Jr.

Leaders

14 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Manufacturer	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	17	+16	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.		200	—	Running	95	48
2	8	+6	Tony Stewart		200	—	Running	18	43
3	6	+3	Matt Kenseth		200	—	Running	17	42
4	3	-1	Greg Biffle		200	—	Running	38	41
5	10	+5	Jimmie Johnson		200	—	Running	—	39
6	28	+22	Jeff Gordon		200	—	Running	4	39
7	13	+6	Clint Bowyer		200	—	Running	1	38
8	21	+13	Juan Pablo Montoya		200	—	Running	4	37
9	1	-8	Marcos Ambrose		200	—	Running	15	36
10	2	-8	Kevin Harvick		200	—	Running	—	34
11	42	+31	Carl Edwards		200	—	Running	—	33
12	16	+4	Martin Truex, Jr.		200	—	Running	—	32
13	25	+12	Brad Keselowski	Dodge	200	—	Running	3	32
14	19	+5	Jamie McMurray		200	—	Running	1	31
15	5	-10	Ryan Newman		199	—	Running	—	29
16	31	+15	Bobby Labonte		199	—	Running	—	28
17	15	-2	Aric Almirola		199	—	Running	—	27
18	32	+14	Landon Cassill		199	—	Running	—	26
19	20	+1	A.J. Allmendinger	Dodge	199	—	Running	—	25
20	24	+4	Casey Mears		199	—	Running	—	24
21	33	+12	Jeff Burton		199	—	Running	1	24
22	18	-4	Paul Menard		199	—	Running	—	22
23	38	+15	David Ragan		199	—	Running	—	21
24	22	-2	Austin Dillon		198	—	Running	—	0
25	36	+11	Dave Blaney		198	—	Running	1	20
26	39	+13	Travis Kvapil		197	—	Running	—	18
27	35	+8	David Gilliland		197	—	Running	1	18
28	12	-16	Regan Smith		197	—	Running	—	16
29	14	-15	Mark Martin		195	—	Running	—	15
30	26	-4	Kurt Busch		194	—	Running	—	14
31	40	+9	Ken Schrader		193	—	Running	—	13
32	34	+2	Kyle Busch		157	—	DNF	—	12
33	4	-29	Kasey Kahne		151	—	DNF	—	11
34	11	-23	Denny Hamlin		132	—	DNF	—	10
35	9	-26	Joey Logano		125	—	DNF	—	9
36	41	+5	Tony Raines		68	—	DNF	—	8
37	43	+6	J.J. Yeley		67	—	DNF	1	8
38	27	-11	Michael McDowell		41	—	DNF	—	6
39	29	-10	Mike Bliss		35	—	DNF	—	0
40	37	-3	Joe Nemechek		32	—	DNF	—	0
41	23	-18	Scott Riggs		27	—	DNF	—	3
42	30	-12	Josh Wise		9	—	DNF	—	2
43	7	-36	Trevor Bayne		7	—	DNF	—	0

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 11 matched drivers, the model averaged 11.0 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
5	Jimmie Johnson	19.9	5	+14.9	Moderate
12	Martin Truex, Jr.	15.4	12	+3.4	Coinflip
13	Brad Keselowski	11.2	13	-1.8	Moderate
19	A.J. Allmendinger	18.3	19	-0.7	Moderate
20	Casey Mears	16.9	20	-3.1	Coinflip
24	Austin Dillon	17.1	24	-6.9	Coinflip
32	Kyle Busch	17.0	32	-15.0	Coinflip
34	Denny Hamlin	8.2	34	-25.8	High Confidence
35	Joey Logano	14.7	35	-20.3	Coinflip
37	J.J. Yeley	28.8	37	-8.2	High Confidence
38	Michael McDowell	17.0	38	-21.0	Coinflip

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Dale Earnhardt, Jr.: has 35 career starts at Michigan International Speedway with a 14.3 avg finish (2 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 41 career starts at Michigan International Speedway with a 10.9 avg finish (5 wins), finishing P34 on the day.
Jimmie Johnson: was the biggest surprise, finishing P5 vs predicted P20. Track history: 42 starts, 17.1 avg finish.

Track Preview →