NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Martinsville

Martinsville Speedway — April 7, 2013

Jimmie Johnson

Winner

500

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Jimmie Johnson won the 2013 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Martinsville at Martinsville Speedway on April 7, 2013, leading 346 of 500 laps. Clint Bowyer finished second; Jeff Gordon rounded out the podium. The race featured 5 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, April 7, 2013

Track

Martinsville Speedway

Season

2013

Winner

Jimmie Johnson

Leaders

5 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	1	—	Jimmie Johnson	500	—	Running	346	48
2	15	+13	Clint Bowyer	500	—	Running	—	42
3	6	+3	Jeff Gordon	500	—	Running	—	41
4	5	+1	Kasey Kahne	500	—	Running	—	40
5	11	+6	Kyle Busch	500	—	Running	56	40
6	7	+1	Brad Keselowski	500	—	Running	—	38
7	13	+6	Jamie McMurray	500	—	Running	—	37
8	2	-6	Marcos Ambrose	500	—	Running	1	37
9	22	+13	Greg Biffle	500	—	Running	—	35
10	35	+25	Mark Martin	500	—	Running	—	34
11	3	-8	Brian Vickers	500	—	Running	—	0
12	32	+20	Danica Patrick	500	—	Running	—	32
13	21	+8	Kevin Harvick	500	—	Running	—	31
14	8	-6	Matt Kenseth	500	—	Running	96	31
15	9	-6	Carl Edwards	500	—	Running	—	29
16	41	+25	Casey Mears	500	—	Running	—	28
17	26	+9	Tony Stewart	500	—	Running	—	27
18	29	+11	Jeff Burton	500	—	Running	—	26
19	16	-3	Paul Menard	500	—	Running	—	25
20	34	+14	Aric Almirola	500	—	Running	—	24
21	31	+10	Bobby Labonte	500	—	Running	—	23
22	18	-4	Regan Smith	500	—	Running	—	0
23	4	-19	Joey Logano	499	—	Running	—	21
24	17	-7	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.	498	—	Running	—	20
25	20	-5	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	498	—	Running	—	19
26	14	-12	Juan Pablo Montoya	497	—	Running	—	18
27	37	+10	J.J. Yeley	497	—	Running	—	17
28	30	+2	David Gilliland	496	—	Running	—	16
29	39	+10	Dave Blaney	495	—	Running	—	15
30	23	-7	David Ragan	493	—	Running	—	14
31	10	-21	Ryan Newman	492	—	Running	—	13
32	36	+4	Ken Schrader	492	—	Running	—	12
33	33	—	Landon Cassill	492	—	Running	—	11
34	43	+9	Joe Nemechek	491	—	Running	—	0
35	42	+7	Josh Wise	488	—	Running	—	0
36	24	-12	David Stremme	485	—	Running	—	8
37	19	-18	Kurt Busch	457	—	Running	—	7
38	40	+2	David Reutimann	457	—	Running	—	6
39	25	-14	Travis Kvapil	436	—	Running	1	6
40	12	-28	Martin Truex, Jr.	385	—	DNF	—	4
41	28	-13	Scott Speed	64	—	DNF	—	3
42	38	-4	Scott Riggs	47	—	DNF	—	2
43	27	-16	Michael McDowell	26	—	DNF	—	1

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 12 matched drivers, the model averaged 10.3 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
1	Jimmie Johnson	17.7	1	+16.7	Moderate
5	Kyle Busch	15.6	5	+10.6	Coinflip
6	Brad Keselowski	12.6	6	+6.6	Coinflip
13	Kevin Harvick	10.3	13	-2.7	Moderate
16	Casey Mears	18.0	16	+2.0	Moderate
20	Aric Almirola	14.0	20	-6.0	Coinflip
23	Joey Logano	10.8	23	-12.2	Coinflip
25	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	20.2	25	-4.8	Moderate
27	J.J. Yeley	27.3	27	+0.3	High Confidence
31	Ryan Newman	23.0	31	-8.0	High Confidence
40	Martin Truex, Jr.	13.8	40	-26.2	Coinflip
43	Michael McDowell	15.0	43	-28.0	Coinflip

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Jimmie Johnson: has 36 career starts at Martinsville Speedway with a 8.7 avg finish (9 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Kevin Harvick: was the model’s top pick based on 64 career starts at Martinsville Speedway with a 14.1 avg finish (5 wins), finishing P13 on the day.

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