NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Texas

Texas Motor Speedway — April 13, 2013

Kyle Busch

Winner

334

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Kyle Busch won the 2013 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Texas at Texas Motor Speedway on April 13, 2013, leading 171 of 334 laps. Martin Truex, Jr. finished second; Carl Edwards rounded out the podium. The race featured 7 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Saturday, April 13, 2013

Track

Texas Motor Speedway

Season

2013

Winner

Kyle Busch

Leaders

7 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	1	—	Kyle Busch	334	—	Running	171	48
2	5	+3	Martin Truex, Jr.	334	—	Running	142	43
3	9	+6	Carl Edwards	334	—	Running	—	41
4	35	+31	Greg Biffle	334	—	Running	—	40
5	18	+13	Joey Logano	334	—	Running	1	40
6	7	+1	Jimmie Johnson	334	—	Running	—	38
7	3	-4	Aric Almirola	334	—	Running	—	37
8	15	+7	Brian Vickers	334	—	Running	—	0
9	16	+7	Brad Keselowski	334	—	Running	—	35
10	31	+21	Ryan Newman	334	—	Running	3	35
11	14	+3	Kasey Kahne	334	—	Running	—	33
12	20	+8	Matt Kenseth	334	—	Running	—	32
13	29	+16	Kevin Harvick	334	—	Running	—	31
14	23	+9	Mark Martin	334	—	Running	—	30
15	26	+11	Clint Bowyer	334	—	Running	—	29
16	11	-5	Jamie McMurray	334	—	Running	—	28
17	19	+2	Paul Menard	334	—	Running	—	27
18	22	+4	Trevor Bayne	334	—	Running	—	0
19	4	-15	Marcos Ambrose	333	—	Running	—	25
20	10	-10	Juan Pablo Montoya	333	—	Running	—	24
21	13	-8	Tony Stewart	333	—	Running	—	23
22	32	+10	Travis Kvapil	332	—	Running	—	22
23	21	-2	Jeff Burton	332	—	Running	—	21
24	38	+14	David Reutimann	332	—	Running	—	20
25	28	+3	Dave Blaney	332	—	Running	—	19
26	25	-1	David Ragan	331	—	Running	1	19
27	33	+6	David Stremme	331	—	Running	—	17
28	42	+14	Danica Patrick	331	—	Running	—	16
29	6	-23	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.	330	—	Running	—	15
30	40	+10	Josh Wise	330	—	Running	—	0
31	24	-7	Casey Mears	329	—	Running	—	13
32	27	-5	David Gilliland	329	—	Running	1	13
33	12	-21	Austin Dillon	326	—	Running	—	0
34	39	+5	Landon Cassill	326	—	Running	—	10
35	41	+6	Joe Nemechek	324	—	Running	—	0
36	43	+7	Timmy Hill	322	—	Running	—	8
37	2	-35	Kurt Busch	316	—	Running	—	7
38	8	-30	Jeff Gordon	306	—	Running	15	7
39	36	-3	J.J. Yeley	293	—	Running	—	5
40	17	-23	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	290	—	Running	—	4
41	34	-7	Mike Bliss	140	—	DNF	—	0
42	30	-12	Bobby Labonte	138	—	DNF	—	2
43	37	-6	Michael McDowell	44	—	DNF	—	1

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 13 matched drivers, the model averaged 12.3 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
1	Kyle Busch	17.1	1	+16.1	Coinflip
2	Martin Truex, Jr.	15.4	2	+13.4	Coinflip
5	Joey Logano	13.5	5	+8.5	Coinflip
6	Jimmie Johnson	19.9	6	+13.9	Moderate
7	Aric Almirola	15.4	7	+8.4	Coinflip
9	Brad Keselowski	11.9	9	+2.9	Coinflip
13	Kevin Harvick	12.7	13	-0.3	Coinflip
31	Casey Mears	17.0	31	-14.0	Coinflip
33	Austin Dillon	18.3	33	-14.7	Coinflip
36	Timmy Hill	24.7	36	-11.3	High Confidence
39	J.J. Yeley	28.2	39	-10.8	High Confidence
40	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	21.0	40	-19.0	High Confidence
43	Michael McDowell	16.9	43	-26.1	Coinflip

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Kyle Busch: has 69 career starts at Texas Motor Speedway with a 9.8 avg finish (19 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Brad Keselowski: was the model’s top pick based on 46 career starts at Texas Motor Speedway with a 14.1 avg finish (2 wins), finishing P9 on the day.

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