NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Watkins Glen

Watkins Glen International — August 11, 2013

Kyle Busch

Winner

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Kyle Busch won the 2013 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Watkins Glen at Watkins Glen International on August 11, 2013, leading 29 of 90 laps. Brad Keselowski finished second; Martin Truex, Jr. rounded out the podium. The race featured 5 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, August 11, 2013

Track

Watkins Glen International

Season

2013

Winner

Kyle Busch

Leaders

5 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	5	+4	Kyle Busch	90	—	Running	29	47
2	8	+6	Brad Keselowski	90	—	Running	—	42
3	3	—	Martin Truex, Jr.	90	—	Running	—	41
4	16	+12	Carl Edwards	90	—	Running	—	40
5	11	+6	Juan Pablo Montoya	90	—	Running	1	40
6	2	-4	Clint Bowyer	90	—	Running	—	38
7	9	+2	Joey Logano	90	—	Running	—	37
8	18	+10	Jimmie Johnson	90	—	Running	—	36
9	13	+4	Kurt Busch	90	—	Running	—	35
10	4	-6	A.J. Allmendinger	90	—	Running	—	34
11	6	-5	Jamie McMurray	90	—	Running	1	34
12	30	+18	Casey Mears	90	—	Running	—	32
13	26	+13	Kevin Harvick	90	—	Running	8	32
14	14	—	Ryan Newman	90	—	Running	—	30
15	29	+14	Max Papis	90	—	Running	—	0
16	17	+1	Greg Biffle	90	—	Running	—	28
17	7	-10	Paul Menard	90	—	Running	—	27
18	33	+15	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	90	—	Running	—	26
19	20	+1	Denny Hamlin	90	—	Running	—	25
20	35	+15	Danica Patrick	90	—	Running	—	24
21	31	+10	David Ragan	90	—	Running	—	23
22	27	+5	Boris Said	90	—	Running	—	22
23	10	-13	Matt Kenseth	90	—	Running	—	21
24	23	-1	Owen Kelly	90	—	Running	—	0
25	21	-4	David Gilliland	90	—	Running	—	19
26	22	-4	Jeff Burton	90	—	Running	—	18
27	40	+13	Dave Blaney	90	—	Running	—	17
28	41	+13	Landon Cassill	90	—	Running	—	0
29	37	+8	Alex Kennedy	90	—	Running	—	15
30	25	-5	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.	85	—	Running	—	14
31	1	-30	Marcos Ambrose	84	—	Running	51	15
32	15	-17	Brian Vickers	84	—	Running	—	0
33	39	+6	David Stremme	83	—	Running	—	11
34	19	-15	Kasey Kahne	82	—	Running	—	10
35	24	-11	Ron Fellows	74	—	DNF	—	9
36	28	-8	Jeff Gordon	65	—	DNF	—	8
37	32	-5	Aric Almirola	58	—	DNF	—	7
38	12	-26	Michael McDowell	58	—	DNF	—	6
39	43	+4	Brian Keselowski	47	—	DNF	—	5
40	38	-2	Travis Kvapil	41	—	DNF	—	4
41	34	-7	Victor Gonzalez Jr.	39	—	DNF	—	3
42	42	—	Tomy Drissi	39	—	DNF	—	2
43	36	-7	David Reutimann	4	—	DNF	—	1

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 13 matched drivers, the model averaged 9.9 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
1	Kyle Busch	13.0	1	+12.0	Coinflip
2	Brad Keselowski	16.7	2	+14.7	Moderate
3	Martin Truex, Jr.	16.5	3	+13.5	Coinflip
5	Juan Pablo Montoya	16.7	5	+11.7	Moderate
7	Joey Logano	12.7	7	+5.7	Moderate
8	Jimmie Johnson	16.7	8	+8.7	Moderate
10	A.J. Allmendinger	16.5	10	+6.5	Coinflip
12	Casey Mears	16.7	12	+4.7	Coinflip
13	Kevin Harvick	12.7	13	-0.3	Moderate
18	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	21.4	18	+3.4	High Confidence
19	Denny Hamlin	16.7	19	-2.3	Coinflip
37	Aric Almirola	17.2	37	-19.8	Coinflip
38	Michael McDowell	12.9	38	-25.1	Moderate

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Kyle Busch: has 30 career starts at Watkins Glen International with a 13.6 avg finish (3 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Joey Logano: was the model’s top pick based on 22 career starts at Watkins Glen International with a 12.0 avg finish (3 wins), finishing P7 on the day.
Brad Keselowski: was the biggest surprise, finishing P2 vs predicted P17. Track history: 23 starts, 12.6 avg finish.

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