NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Michigan

Michigan International Speedway — August 18, 2013

Joey Logano

Winner

200

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Joey Logano won the 2013 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Michigan at Michigan International Speedway on August 18, 2013, leading 51 of 200 laps. Kevin Harvick finished second; Kurt Busch rounded out the podium. The race featured 13 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, August 18, 2013

Track

Michigan International Speedway

Season

2013

Winner

Joey Logano

Leaders

13 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	1	—	Joey Logano	200	—	Running	51	48
2	15	+13	Kevin Harvick	200	—	Running	—	42
3	2	-1	Kurt Busch	200	—	Running	43	42
4	20	+16	Paul Menard	200	—	Running	—	40
5	11	+6	Clint Bowyer	200	—	Running	—	39
6	26	+20	Marcos Ambrose	200	—	Running	1	39
7	31	+24	Kasey Kahne	200	—	Running	—	37
8	5	-3	Jeff Burton	200	—	Running	—	36
9	16	+7	Greg Biffle	200	—	Running	28	36
10	19	+9	Carl Edwards	200	—	Running	—	34
11	6	-5	Juan Pablo Montoya	200	—	Running	—	33
12	9	-3	Brad Keselowski	200	—	Running	17	33
13	21	+8	Ryan Newman	200	—	Running	—	31
14	27	+13	Austin Dillon	200	—	Running	—	0
15	12	-3	Matt Kenseth	200	—	Running	—	29
16	17	+1	Martin Truex, Jr.	200	—	Running	—	28
17	13	-4	Jeff Gordon	200	—	Running	—	27
18	14	-4	Aric Almirola	200	—	Running	—	26
19	22	+3	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	200	—	Running	—	25
20	8	-12	Denny Hamlin	200	—	Running	9	25
21	18	-3	Trevor Bayne	200	—	Running	1	0
22	29	+7	Jamie McMurray	200	—	Running	—	22
23	28	+5	Danica Patrick	200	—	Running	—	21
24	24	—	David Ragan	200	—	Running	1	21
25	33	+8	Casey Mears	200	—	Running	2	20
26	36	+10	David Stremme	200	—	Running	—	18
27	4	-23	Mark Martin	199	—	Running	23	18
28	38	+10	Travis Kvapil	198	—	Running	—	16
29	34	+5	Timmy Hill	198	—	Running	—	15
30	42	+12	Dave Blaney	197	—	Running	—	14
31	10	-21	Kyle Busch	197	—	Running	—	13
32	43	+11	Landon Cassill	197	—	Running	—	0
33	39	+6	Brendan Gaughan	196	—	Running	—	0
34	37	+3	Joe Nemechek	192	—	Running	—	0
35	30	-5	Bobby Labonte	186	—	Running	—	9
36	7	-29	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.	171	—	Running	20	9
37	23	-14	David Gilliland	165	—	DNF	1	8
38	25	-13	David Reutimann	153	—	DNF	—	6
39	40	+1	Josh Wise	56	—	DNF	—	0
40	3	-37	Jimmie Johnson	54	—	DNF	3	5
41	32	-9	Scott Speed	35	—	DNF	—	3
42	41	-1	Johnny Sauter	34	—	DNF	—	0
43	35	-8	J.J. Yeley	12	—	DNF	—	1

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 13 matched drivers, the model averaged 8.3 positions off — close to the season average of 8.5. Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
1	Joey Logano	13.1	1	+12.1	Coinflip
2	Kevin Harvick	11.2	2	+9.2	Coinflip
12	Brad Keselowski	11.2	12	-0.8	Coinflip
14	Austin Dillon	19.1	14	+5.1	Moderate
16	Martin Truex, Jr.	15.4	16	-0.6	Coinflip
18	Aric Almirola	15.4	18	-2.6	Coinflip
19	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	22.9	19	+3.9	High Confidence
20	Denny Hamlin	8.2	20	-11.8	High Confidence
25	Casey Mears	17.1	25	-7.9	Coinflip
29	Timmy Hill	23.9	29	-5.1	High Confidence
31	Kyle Busch	17.0	31	-14.0	Coinflip
40	Jimmie Johnson	19.9	40	-20.1	Moderate
43	J.J. Yeley	28.5	43	-14.5	High Confidence

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Joey Logano: has 37 career starts at Michigan International Speedway with a 11.6 avg finish (4 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 41 career starts at Michigan International Speedway with a 10.9 avg finish (5 wins), finishing P20 on the day.

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