NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Martinsville

Martinsville Speedway — March 30, 2014

Kurt Busch

Winner

500

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Kurt Busch won the 2014 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Martinsville at Martinsville Speedway on March 30, 2014, leading 23 of 500 laps. Jimmie Johnson finished second; Dale Earnhardt, Jr. rounded out the podium. The race featured 12 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, March 30, 2014

Track

Martinsville Speedway

Season

2014

Winner

Kurt Busch

Leaders

12 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	22	+21	Kurt Busch	500	—	Running	23	47
2	4	+2	Jimmie Johnson	500	—	Running	296	44
3	26	+23	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.	500	—	Running	25	42
4	3	-1	Joey Logano	500	—	Running	39	41
5	17	+12	Marcos Ambrose	500	—	Running	22	40
6	6	—	Matt Kenseth	500	—	Running	36	39
7	18	+11	Kevin Harvick	500	—	Running	1	38
8	20	+12	Aric Almirola	500	—	Running	—	36
9	12	+3	Clint Bowyer	500	—	Running	16	36
10	21	+11	Paul Menard	500	—	Running	—	34
11	15	+4	A.J. Allmendinger	500	—	Running	1	34
12	5	-7	Jeff Gordon	500	—	Running	—	32
13	8	-5	Carl Edwards	500	—	Running	—	31
14	1	-13	Kyle Busch	500	—	Running	22	31
15	34	+19	Austin Dillon	500	—	Running	—	29
16	13	-3	Brian Vickers	500	—	Running	—	28
17	7	-10	Tony Stewart	500	—	Running	—	27
18	11	-7	Greg Biffle	500	—	Running	18	27
19	2	-17	Denny Hamlin	500	—	Running	—	25
20	16	-4	Ryan Newman	500	—	Running	—	24
21	31	+10	Martin Truex, Jr.	500	—	Running	—	23
22	27	+5	Kasey Kahne	500	—	Running	—	22
23	25	+2	Justin Allgaier	500	—	Running	—	21
24	23	-1	Casey Mears	500	—	Running	—	20
25	36	+11	Landon Cassill	500	—	Running	—	0
26	39	+13	David Gilliland	499	—	Running	—	18
27	28	+1	Kyle Larson	498	—	Running	—	17
28	24	-4	David Ragan	497	—	Running	—	16
29	35	+6	Cole Whitt	497	—	Running	—	15
30	38	+8	Ryan Truex	496	—	Running	—	14
31	40	+9	Michael Annett	495	—	Running	—	13
32	10	-22	Danica Patrick	494	—	Running	—	12
33	29	-4	Travis Kvapil	493	—	Running	1	12
34	42	+8	Reed Sorenson	492	—	Running	—	10
35	33	-2	Josh Wise	492	—	Running	—	9
36	19	-17	Alex Bowman	488	—	Running	—	8
37	32	-5	Michael McDowell	474	—	Running	—	7
38	14	-24	Brad Keselowski	469	—	Running	—	6
39	37	-2	David Stremme	440	—	Running	—	5
40	30	-10	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	409	—	DNF	—	4
41	41	—	Parker Kligerman	408	—	DNF	—	3
42	9	-33	Jamie McMurray	396	—	DNF	—	2
43	43	—	Joe Nemechek	310	—	DNF	—	0

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 15 matched drivers, the model averaged 12.5 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
2	Jimmie Johnson	17.7	2	+15.7	Moderate
4	Joey Logano	12.1	4	+8.1	Coinflip
11	A.J. Allmendinger	18.3	11	+7.3	Moderate
14	Kyle Busch	15.6	14	+1.6	Coinflip
15	Austin Dillon	17.0	15	+2.0	Coinflip
19	Denny Hamlin	6.8	19	-12.2	High Confidence
21	Martin Truex, Jr.	13.8	21	-7.2	Coinflip
23	Justin Allgaier	17.7	23	-5.3	Moderate
24	Casey Mears	18.0	24	-6.0	Moderate
27	Kyle Larson	8.6	27	-18.4	Moderate
30	Ryan Truex	15.6	30	-14.4	Coinflip
36	Alex Bowman	14.0	36	-22.0	Coinflip
37	Michael McDowell	15.0	37	-22.0	Coinflip
38	Brad Keselowski	12.0	38	-26.0	Coinflip
40	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	20.1	40	-19.9	Moderate

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Kurt Busch: has 45 career starts at Martinsville Speedway with a 19.6 avg finish (2 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 47 career starts at Martinsville Speedway with a 9.2 avg finish (8 wins), finishing P19 on the day.
Jimmie Johnson: was the biggest surprise, finishing P2 vs predicted P18. Track history: 36 starts, 8.7 avg finish.

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