NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Michigan

Michigan International Speedway — June 15, 2014

Jimmie Johnson

Winner

200

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Jimmie Johnson won the 2014 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Michigan at Michigan International Speedway on June 15, 2014, leading 39 of 200 laps. Kevin Harvick finished second; Brad Keselowski rounded out the podium. The race featured 13 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, June 15, 2014

Track

Michigan International Speedway

Season

2014

Winner

Jimmie Johnson

Leaders

13 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	7	+6	Jimmie Johnson	200	—	Running	39	47
2	1	-1	Kevin Harvick	200	—	Running	63	44
3	6	+3	Brad Keselowski	200	—	Running	4	42
4	5	+1	Paul Menard	200	—	Running	—	40
5	13	+8	Kasey Kahne	200	—	Running	1	40
6	2	-4	Jeff Gordon	200	—	Running	36	39
7	3	-4	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.	200	—	Running	1	38
8	12	+4	Kyle Larson	200	—	Running	2	37
9	9	—	Joey Logano	200	—	Running	29	36
10	15	+5	Clint Bowyer	200	—	Running	—	34
11	26	+15	Tony Stewart	200	—	Running	1	34
12	11	-1	Jamie McMurray	200	—	Running	4	33
13	8	-5	Kurt Busch	200	—	Running	16	32
14	21	+7	Matt Kenseth	200	—	Running	2	31
15	24	+9	Ryan Newman	200	—	Running	—	29
16	17	+1	Justin Allgaier	200	—	Running	—	28
17	27	+10	Danica Patrick	200	—	Running	—	27
18	28	+10	Juan Pablo Montoya	200	—	Running	—	26
19	23	+4	Trevor Bayne	200	—	Running	—	0
20	18	-2	Greg Biffle	200	—	Running	—	24
21	37	+16	Michael Annett	199	—	Running	—	23
22	25	+3	A.J. Allmendinger	199	—	Running	—	22
23	22	-1	Carl Edwards	199	—	Running	—	21
24	31	+7	Casey Mears	199	—	Running	—	20
25	20	-5	Marcos Ambrose	199	—	Running	—	19
26	32	+6	David Gilliland	198	—	Running	—	18
27	30	+3	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	198	—	Running	—	17
28	42	+14	Cole Whitt	198	—	Running	—	16
29	29	—	Denny Hamlin	198	—	Running	—	15
30	19	-11	Austin Dillon	197	—	Running	2	15
31	4	-27	Aric Almirola	197	—	Running	—	13
32	40	+8	Reed Sorenson	197	—	Running	—	12
33	38	+5	Josh Wise	197	—	Running	—	11
34	34	—	Brett Moffitt	197	—	Running	—	10
35	39	+4	Landon Cassill	197	—	Running	—	0
36	35	-1	J.J. Yeley	197	—	Running	—	0
37	16	-21	Martin Truex, Jr.	196	—	Running	—	7
38	33	-5	David Ragan	196	—	Running	—	6
39	36	-3	David Stremme	195	—	Running	—	5
40	41	+1	Alex Bowman	169	—	DNF	—	4
41	14	-27	Kyle Busch	169	—	DNF	—	3
42	10	-32	Brian Vickers	110	—	DNF	—	2
43	43	—	Travis Kvapil	23	—	DNF	—	1

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 14 matched drivers, the model averaged 12.2 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
1	Jimmie Johnson	19.9	1	+18.9	Moderate
3	Brad Keselowski	11.2	3	+8.2	Moderate
8	Kyle Larson	12.7	8	+4.7	Coinflip
9	Joey Logano	14.7	9	+5.7	Coinflip
16	Justin Allgaier	18.3	16	+2.3	Coinflip
22	A.J. Allmendinger	18.3	22	-3.7	Moderate
24	Casey Mears	16.9	24	-7.1	Coinflip
27	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	19.9	27	-7.1	Moderate
29	Denny Hamlin	8.2	29	-20.8	High Confidence
30	Austin Dillon	17.1	30	-12.9	Coinflip
36	J.J. Yeley	28.8	36	-7.2	High Confidence
37	Martin Truex, Jr.	15.4	37	-21.6	Coinflip
40	Alex Bowman	13.5	40	-26.5	Coinflip
41	Kyle Busch	17.0	41	-24.0	Coinflip

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Jimmie Johnson: has 42 career starts at Michigan International Speedway with a 17.1 avg finish (1 win) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 41 career starts at Michigan International Speedway with a 10.9 avg finish (5 wins), finishing P29 on the day.

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