Daytona 500

Daytona International Speedway — February 23, 2014

Dale Earnhardt, Jr.

Winner

200

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Dale Earnhardt, Jr. won the 2014 Daytona 500 at Daytona International Speedway on February 23, 2014, leading 54 of 200 laps. Denny Hamlin finished second; Brad Keselowski rounded out the podium. The race featured 18 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, February 23, 2014

Track

Daytona International Speedway

Season

2014

Winner

Dale Earnhardt, Jr.

Leaders

18 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	9	+8	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.	200	—	Running	54	48
2	4	+2	Denny Hamlin	200	—	Running	16	43
3	33	+30	Brad Keselowski	200	—	Running	13	42
4	6	+2	Jeff Gordon	200	—	Running	—	40
5	32	+27	Jimmie Johnson	200	—	Running	15	40
6	3	-3	Matt Kenseth	200	—	Running	—	38
7	34	+27	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	200	—	Running	—	37
8	25	+17	Greg Biffle	200	—	Running	8	37
9	1	-8	Austin Dillon	200	—	Running	1	36
10	28	+18	Casey Mears	200	—	Running	—	34
11	35	+24	Joey Logano	200	—	Running	2	34
12	18	+6	Landon Cassill	200	—	Running	—	0
13	38	+25	Kevin Harvick	200	—	Running	—	31
14	22	+8	Jamie McMurray	200	—	Running	—	30
15	26	+11	Bobby Labonte	200	—	Running	—	29
16	39	+23	Reed Sorenson	200	—	Running	—	28
17	30	+13	Carl Edwards	200	—	Running	8	28
18	7	-11	Marcos Ambrose	200	—	Running	—	26
19	37	+18	Kyle Busch	200	—	Running	19	26
20	24	+4	Terry Labonte	200	—	Running	—	24
21	8	-13	Kurt Busch	199	—	Running	15	24
22	19	-3	Ryan Newman	199	—	Running	—	22
23	29	+6	Alex Bowman	198	—	Running	—	21
24	11	-13	Josh Wise	196	—	Running	—	20
25	12	-13	Brian Scott	196	—	Running	—	0
26	15	-11	A.J. Allmendinger	194	—	Running	1	19
27	40	+13	Justin Allgaier	193	—	Running	4	18
28	23	-5	Cole Whitt	193	—	Running	—	16
29	41	+12	Parker Kligerman	193	—	Running	—	15
30	31	+1	Brian Vickers	192	—	Running	—	14
31	5	-26	Kasey Kahne	192	—	Running	2	14
32	10	-22	Paul Menard	184	—	Running	29	13
33	14	-19	Trevor Bayne	183	—	Running	2	0
34	43	+9	David Ragan	176	—	Running	—	10
35	21	-14	Tony Stewart	174	—	Running	—	9
36	17	-19	David Gilliland	171	—	Running	—	8
37	36	-1	Michael Annett	161	—	DNF	—	7
38	16	-22	Kyle Larson	160	—	DNF	—	6
39	13	-26	Aric Almirola	146	—	DNF	5	6
40	27	-13	Danica Patrick	145	—	DNF	2	5
41	42	+1	Michael Waltrip	144	—	DNF	4	4
42	20	-22	Clint Bowyer	127	—	DNF	—	2
43	2	-41	Martin Truex, Jr.	30	—	DNF	—	1

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 13 matched drivers, the model averaged 11.6 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
2	Denny Hamlin	16.0	2	+14.0	Coinflip
3	Brad Keselowski	16.0	3	+13.0	Coinflip
5	Jimmie Johnson	18.9	5	+13.9	Coinflip
7	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	18.5	7	+11.5	Coinflip
9	Austin Dillon	23.4	9	+14.4	High Confidence
10	Casey Mears	18.5	10	+8.5	Coinflip
11	Joey Logano	20.5	11	+9.5	Moderate
19	Kyle Busch	15.1	19	-3.9	Coinflip
23	Alex Bowman	15.1	23	-7.9	Coinflip
26	A.J. Allmendinger	20.1	26	-5.9	Moderate
27	Justin Allgaier	21.1	27	-5.9	Moderate
38	Kyle Larson	18.5	38	-19.5	Coinflip
43	Martin Truex, Jr.	20.1	43	-22.9	Coinflip

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Dale Earnhardt, Jr.: has 39 career starts at Daytona International Speedway with a 13.8 avg finish (4 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Kyle Busch: was the model’s top pick based on 69 career starts at Daytona International Speedway with a 17.3 avg finish (3 wins), finishing P19 on the day.
Austin Dillon: was the biggest surprise, finishing P9 vs predicted P23. Track history: 36 starts, 14.7 avg finish.

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