NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Daytona

Daytona International Speedway — July 5, 2014

Aric Almirola

Winner

112

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Aric Almirola won the 2014 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at Daytona at Daytona International Speedway on July 5, 2014, leading 14 of 112 laps. Brian Vickers finished second; Kurt Busch rounded out the podium. The race featured 14 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Saturday, July 5, 2014

Track

Daytona International Speedway

Season

2014

Winner

Aric Almirola

Leaders

14 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	15	+14	Aric Almirola	112	—	Running	14	47
2	30	+28	Brian Vickers	112	—	Running	—	42
3	40	+37	Kurt Busch	112	—	Running	36	43
4	22	+18	Casey Mears	112	—	Running	1	41
5	23	+18	Austin Dillon	112	—	Running	—	39
6	37	+31	Denny Hamlin	112	—	Running	—	38
7	27	+20	Michael McDowell	112	—	Running	—	37
8	29	+21	Danica Patrick	112	—	Running	—	36
9	34	+25	Clint Bowyer	112	—	Running	1	36
10	18	+8	Marcos Ambrose	112	—	Running	—	34
11	38	+27	Terry Labonte	112	—	Running	—	33
12	9	-3	Jeff Gordon	112	—	Running	2	33
13	43	+30	Alex Bowman	112	—	Running	—	31
14	7	-7	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.	112	—	Running	—	30
15	19	+4	Martin Truex, Jr.	112	—	Running	—	29
16	21	+5	Paul Menard	112	—	Running	—	28
17	28	+11	Joey Logano	112	—	Running	—	27
18	26	+8	Brad Keselowski	111	—	Running	—	26
19	41	+22	Michael Waltrip	111	—	Running	—	25
20	6	-14	Matt Kenseth	111	—	Running	12	25
21	32	+11	Michael Annett	104	—	Running	2	24
22	8	-14	David Ragan	102	—	Running	7	23
23	33	+10	Josh Wise	101	—	Running	—	21
24	20	-4	Ryan Newman	100	—	Running	—	20
25	31	+6	Justin Allgaier	98	—	Running	—	19
26	4	-22	Bobby Labonte	98	—	Running	—	18
27	14	-13	Kasey Kahne	97	—	Running	—	17
28	39	+11	Kyle Busch	97	—	Running	—	16
29	10	-19	Greg Biffle	97	—	Running	9	16
30	36	+6	Jamie McMurray	97	—	Running	11	15
31	3	-28	Landon Cassill	97	—	Running	5	0
32	42	+10	Ryan Truex	97	—	Running	—	12
33	2	-31	Reed Sorenson	97	—	Running	4	12
34	17	-17	Cole Whitt	97	—	Running	—	10
35	1	-34	David Gilliland	97	—	Running	5	10
36	35	-1	Kyle Larson	69	—	DNF	—	8
37	11	-26	Carl Edwards	66	—	DNF	—	7
38	25	-13	Trevor Bayne	46	—	DNF	—	0
39	13	-26	Kevin Harvick	46	—	DNF	—	5
40	12	-28	Tony Stewart	45	—	DNF	3	5
41	16	-25	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	37	—	DNF	—	3
42	5	-37	Jimmie Johnson	20	—	DNF	—	2
43	24	-19	A.J. Allmendinger	19	—	DNF	—	1

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 15 matched drivers, the model averaged 12.2 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
4	Casey Mears	18.5	4	+14.5	Coinflip
5	Austin Dillon	23.4	5	+18.4	High Confidence
6	Denny Hamlin	16.0	6	+10.0	Coinflip
7	Michael McDowell	20.0	7	+13.0	Coinflip
13	Alex Bowman	15.1	13	+2.1	Coinflip
15	Martin Truex, Jr.	20.1	15	+5.1	Coinflip
17	Joey Logano	20.5	17	+3.5	Moderate
18	Brad Keselowski	16.0	18	-2.0	Coinflip
25	Justin Allgaier	21.1	25	-3.9	Moderate
28	Kyle Busch	15.1	28	-12.9	Coinflip
32	Ryan Truex	20.5	32	-11.5	Moderate
36	Kyle Larson	18.5	36	-17.5	Coinflip
41	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	18.5	41	-22.5	Coinflip
42	Jimmie Johnson	18.9	42	-23.1	Coinflip
43	A.J. Allmendinger	20.1	43	-22.9	Moderate

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Aric Almirola: has 35 career starts at Daytona International Speedway with a 19.5 avg finish (2 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Alex Bowman: was the model’s top pick based on 22 career starts at Daytona International Speedway with a 16.2 avg finish, finishing P13 on the day.
Austin Dillon: was the biggest surprise, finishing P5 vs predicted P23. Track history: 36 starts, 14.7 avg finish.

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