DAYTONA 500

Daytona International Speedway, February 22, 2015

Joey Logano

Winner

203

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Joey Logano won the 2015 DAYTONA 500 at Daytona International Speedway on February 22, 2015, leading 31 of 203 laps. Kevin Harvick finished second; Dale Earnhardt, Jr. rounded out the podium. The race featured 12 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, February 22, 2015

Track

Daytona International Speedway

Season

2015

Winner

Joey Logano

Leaders

12 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	5	+4	Joey Logano	203	—	Running	31	47
2	11	+9	Kevin Harvick	203	—	Running	—	42
3	3	—	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.	203	—	Running	32	42
4	42	+38	Denny Hamlin	203	—	Running	4	41
5	2	-3	Jimmie Johnson	203	—	Running	39	40
6	41	+35	Casey Mears	203	—	Running	1	39
7	9	+2	Clint Bowyer	203	—	Running	—	37
8	10	+2	Martin Truex, Jr.	203	—	Running	1	37
9	13	+4	Kasey Kahne	203	—	Running	—	35
10	8	-2	Greg Biffle	203	—	Running	2	35
11	26	+15	David Gilliland	203	—	Running	—	33
12	38	+26	Sam Hornish Jr.	203	—	Running	—	32
13	27	+14	Michael Annett	203	—	Running	1	32
14	30	+16	Austin Dillon	203	—	Running	—	30
15	33	+18	Aric Almirola	203	—	Running	—	29
16	24	+8	Regan Smith	203	—	Running	—	0
17	28	+11	David Ragan	203	—	Running	—	27
18	4	-14	Matt Crafton	203	—	Running	—	0
19	36	+17	Johnny Sauter	203	—	Running	—	0
20	40	+20	A.J. Allmendinger	203	—	Running	1	25
21	20	-1	Danica Patrick	203	—	Running	—	23
22	19	-3	Cole Whitt	203	—	Running	—	22
23	6	-17	Carl Edwards	203	—	Running	3	22
24	43	+19	Bobby Labonte	203	—	Running	—	20
25	21	-4	Paul Menard	203	—	Running	—	19
26	34	+8	Michael Waltrip	203	—	Running	—	18
27	15	-12	Jamie McMurray	203	—	Running	—	17
28	31	+3	Ty Dillon	203	—	Running	—	0
29	32	+3	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	203	—	Running	—	15
30	37	+7	Trevor Bayne	203	—	Running	—	14
31	23	-8	Michael McDowell	203	—	Running	—	13
32	14	-18	Reed Sorenson	203	—	Running	—	12
33	1	-32	Jeff Gordon	203	—	Running	87	13
34	29	-5	Kyle Larson	202	—	Running	—	10
35	35	—	Matt Kenseth	202	—	Running	—	9
36	16	-20	Mike Wallace	199	—	Running	—	8
37	18	-19	Justin Allgaier	197	—	Running	—	7
38	22	-16	Ryan Newman	184	—	Running	—	6
39	12	-27	Ryan Blaney	175	—	Running	—	0
40	25	-15	J.J. Yeley	161	—	DNF	1	0
41	39	-2	Brad Keselowski	160	—	DNF	—	3
42	7	-35	Tony Stewart	72	—	DNF	—	2
43	17	-26	Landon Cassill	18	—	DNF	—	0

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 15 matched drivers, the model averaged 13.5 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
1	Joey Logano	18.5	1	+17.5	Coinflip
4	Denny Hamlin	15.1	4	+11.1	Coinflip
5	Jimmie Johnson	20.0	5	+15.0	Coinflip
6	Casey Mears	20.0	6	+14.0	Coinflip
8	Martin Truex, Jr.	20.5	8	+12.5	Coinflip
14	Austin Dillon	21.1	14	+7.1	Moderate
20	A.J. Allmendinger	22.9	20	+2.9	Moderate
28	Ty Dillon	22.9	28	-5.1	High Confidence
29	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	18.5	29	-10.5	Coinflip
31	Michael McDowell	19.2	31	-11.8	Coinflip
34	Kyle Larson	20.1	34	-13.9	Coinflip
37	Justin Allgaier	21.1	37	-15.9	Moderate
39	Ryan Blaney	10.4	39	-28.6	Moderate
40	J.J. Yeley	25.5	40	-14.5	High Confidence
41	Brad Keselowski	18.5	41	-22.5	Coinflip

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Joey Logano: has 46 career starts at Daytona International Speedway with a 16.4 avg finish (2 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Ryan Blaney: was the model’s top pick based on 26 career starts at Daytona International Speedway with a 16.5 avg finish (2 wins), finishing P39 on the day.

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