NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES AT CHARLOTTE

Charlotte Motor Speedway — October 10, 2015

Joey Logano

Winner

334

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Joey Logano won the 2015 NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES AT CHARLOTTE at Charlotte Motor Speedway on October 10, 2015, leading 227 of 334 laps. Kevin Harvick finished second; Martin Truex, Jr. rounded out the podium. The race featured 10 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Saturday, October 10, 2015

Track

Charlotte Motor Speedway

Season

2015

Winner

Joey Logano

Leaders

10 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	3	+2	Joey Logano	334	—	Running	227	48
2	11	+9	Kevin Harvick	334	—	Running	—	42
3	15	+12	Martin Truex, Jr.	334	—	Running	—	41
4	5	+1	Denny Hamlin	334	—	Running	—	40
5	6	+1	Kurt Busch	334	—	Running	—	39
6	8	+2	Carl Edwards	334	—	Running	1	39
7	14	+7	Austin Dillon	334	—	Running	1	38
8	22	+14	Jeff Gordon	334	—	Running	1	37
9	13	+4	Brad Keselowski	334	—	Running	—	35
10	9	-1	Aric Almirola	334	—	Running	—	34
11	23	+12	Clint Bowyer	334	—	Running	1	34
12	30	+18	Jamie McMurray	334	—	Running	—	32
13	25	+12	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	334	—	Running	—	31
14	16	+2	Ryan Blaney	334	—	Running	—	0
15	10	-5	Ryan Newman	334	—	Running	—	29
16	17	+1	A.J. Allmendinger	334	—	Running	—	28
17	18	+1	Sam Hornish Jr.	333	—	Running	22	28
18	21	+3	Casey Mears	333	—	Running	—	26
19	24	+5	Danica Patrick	333	—	Running	—	25
20	2	-18	Kyle Busch	333	—	Running	4	25
21	31	+10	Kyle Larson	333	—	Running	3	24
22	33	+11	Trevor Bayne	332	—	Running	—	22
23	34	+11	Landon Cassill	332	—	Running	—	0
24	4	-20	Greg Biffle	331	—	Running	—	20
25	38	+13	Michael Annett	331	—	Running	—	19
26	36	+10	Tony Stewart	331	—	Running	—	18
27	29	+2	David Gilliland	330	—	Running	—	17
28	12	-16	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.	330	—	Running	—	16
29	40	+11	Matt DiBenedetto	330	—	Running	—	15
30	37	+7	Brett Moffitt	330	—	Running	—	14
31	32	+1	Michael McDowell	329	—	Running	—	13
32	27	-5	Alex Bowman	329	—	Running	—	12
33	35	+2	J.J. Yeley	328	—	Running	—	0
34	43	+9	Alex Kennedy	326	—	Running	—	10
35	42	+7	Reed Sorenson	325	—	Running	—	9
36	26	-10	Paul Menard	325	—	Running	—	8
37	19	-18	David Ragan	289	—	Running	—	7
38	39	+1	Cole Whitt	262	—	DNF	—	6
39	7	-32	Jimmie Johnson	257	—	DNF	2	6
40	28	-12	Justin Allgaier	251	—	DNF	—	4
41	41	—	Jeb Burton	244	—	DNF	—	3
42	1	-41	Matt Kenseth	236	—	DNF	72	3
43	20	-23	Kasey Kahne	58	—	DNF	—	1

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 16 matched drivers, the model averaged 9.2 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
1	Joey Logano	14.7	1	+13.7	Coinflip
3	Martin Truex, Jr.	15.4	3	+12.4	Coinflip
4	Denny Hamlin	8.2	4	+4.2	High Confidence
7	Austin Dillon	17.1	7	+10.1	Coinflip
9	Brad Keselowski	11.2	9	+2.2	Moderate
13	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	19.9	13	+6.9	Moderate
14	Ryan Blaney	9.2	14	-4.8	High Confidence
16	A.J. Allmendinger	18.3	16	+2.3	Moderate
18	Casey Mears	16.9	18	-1.1	Coinflip
20	Kyle Busch	17.0	20	-3.0	Coinflip
21	Kyle Larson	12.7	21	-8.3	Coinflip
31	Michael McDowell	17.0	31	-14.0	Coinflip
32	Alex Bowman	13.5	32	-18.5	Coinflip
33	J.J. Yeley	28.8	33	-4.2	High Confidence
39	Jimmie Johnson	19.9	39	-19.1	Moderate
40	Justin Allgaier	18.3	40	-21.7	Coinflip

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Joey Logano: has 34 career starts at Charlotte Motor Speedway with a 11.5 avg finish (2 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 39 career starts at Charlotte Motor Speedway with a 11.8 avg finish (2 wins), finishing P4 on the day.

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