NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES AT LAS VEGAS

Las Vegas Motor Speedway — March 8, 2015

Kevin Harvick

Winner

267

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Kevin Harvick won the 2015 NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES AT LAS VEGAS at Las Vegas Motor Speedway on March 8, 2015, leading 142 of 267 laps. Martin Truex, Jr. finished second; Ryan Newman rounded out the podium. The race featured 9 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, March 8, 2015

Track

Las Vegas Motor Speedway

Season

2015

Winner

Kevin Harvick

Leaders

9 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	18	+17	Kevin Harvick	267	—	Running	142	48
2	8	+6	Martin Truex, Jr.	267	—	Running	3	43
3	7	+4	Ryan Newman	267	—	Running	14	42
4	4	—	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.	267	—	Running	4	41
5	19	+14	Denny Hamlin	267	—	Running	—	39
6	22	+16	A.J. Allmendinger	267	—	Running	—	38
7	11	+4	Brad Keselowski	267	—	Running	9	38
8	5	-3	Kyle Larson	267	—	Running	—	36
9	6	-3	Matt Kenseth	267	—	Running	1	36
10	2	-8	Joey Logano	267	—	Running	47	35
11	10	-1	Jamie McMurray	267	—	Running	—	33
12	24	+12	Paul Menard	267	—	Running	—	32
13	23	+10	Brian Scott	267	—	Running	—	0
14	16	+2	Greg Biffle	267	—	Running	—	30
15	28	+13	Brian Vickers	266	—	Running	—	29
16	34	+18	Regan Smith	266	—	Running	—	0
17	3	-14	Kasey Kahne	266	—	Running	—	27
18	1	-17	Jeff Gordon	266	—	Running	—	26
19	30	+11	Ryan Blaney	266	—	Running	—	0
20	25	+5	Austin Dillon	265	—	Running	—	24
21	20	-1	Clint Bowyer	265	—	Running	—	23
22	13	-9	David Ragan	265	—	Running	—	22
23	37	+14	David Gilliland	265	—	Running	—	21
24	29	+5	Sam Hornish Jr.	265	—	Running	—	20
25	17	-8	Casey Mears	264	—	Running	—	19
26	15	-11	Aric Almirola	264	—	Running	—	18
27	21	-6	Danica Patrick	264	—	Running	—	17
28	35	+7	Trevor Bayne	264	—	Running	—	16
29	31	+2	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	264	—	Running	—	15
30	32	+2	Michael McDowell	264	—	Running	—	14
31	26	-5	Justin Allgaier	263	—	Running	—	13
32	38	+6	Cole Whitt	262	—	Running	—	12
33	12	-21	Tony Stewart	262	—	Running	—	11
34	39	+5	Josh Wise	261	—	Running	—	10
35	42	+7	Landon Cassill	261	—	Running	—	0
36	40	+4	J.J. Yeley	260	—	Running	—	0
37	36	-1	Brett Moffitt	260	—	Running	—	7
38	43	+5	Brendan Gaughan	258	—	Running	—	0
39	33	-6	Michael Annett	257	—	Running	—	5
40	41	+1	Jeb Burton	254	—	Running	—	4
41	9	-32	Jimmie Johnson	236	—	Running	45	4
42	14	-28	Carl Edwards	227	—	Running	2	3
43	27	-16	Alex Bowman	28	—	DNF	—	2

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 15 matched drivers, the model averaged 10.4 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
2	Martin Truex, Jr.	15.4	2	+13.4	Coinflip
5	Denny Hamlin	8.2	5	+3.2	High Confidence
6	A.J. Allmendinger	18.3	6	+12.3	Moderate
7	Brad Keselowski	11.2	7	+4.2	Moderate
8	Kyle Larson	12.7	8	+4.7	Coinflip
10	Joey Logano	14.7	10	+4.7	Coinflip
19	Ryan Blaney	9.2	19	-9.8	High Confidence
20	Austin Dillon	17.1	20	-2.9	Coinflip
25	Casey Mears	16.9	25	-8.1	Coinflip
29	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	19.9	29	-9.1	Moderate
30	Michael McDowell	17.0	30	-13.0	Coinflip
31	Justin Allgaier	18.3	31	-12.7	Coinflip
36	J.J. Yeley	28.8	36	-7.2	High Confidence
41	Jimmie Johnson	19.9	41	-21.1	Moderate
43	Alex Bowman	13.5	43	-29.5	Coinflip

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Kevin Harvick: has 41 career starts at Las Vegas Motor Speedway with a 11.9 avg finish (3 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 37 career starts at Las Vegas Motor Speedway with a 13.2 avg finish (3 wins), finishing P5 on the day.
Martin Truex, Jr.: was the biggest surprise, finishing P2 vs predicted P15. Track history: 27 starts, 10.6 avg finish.

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