NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES AT MICHIGAN
Michigan International Speedway — June 14, 2015
Kurt Busch
Winner
138
Laps
43
Entries
11
Leaders
Kurt Busch won the 2015 NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES AT MICHIGAN at Michigan International Speedway on June 14, 2015, leading 6 of 138 laps. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. finished second; Martin Truex, Jr. rounded out the podium. The race featured 11 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Sunday, June 14, 2015
Season
2015
Winner
Leaders
11 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 24 | +23 | Kurt Busch |
| 2 | 14 | +12 | Dale Earnhardt, Jr. |
| 3 | 9 | +6 | Martin Truex, Jr. |
| 4 | 12 | +8 | Matt Kenseth |
| 5 | 11 | +6 | Joey Logano |
| 6 | 3 | -3 | Brad Keselowski |
| 7 | 25 | +18 | Jamie McMurray |
| 8 | 17 | +9 | Paul Menard |
| 9 | 20 | +11 | Trevor Bayne |
| 10 | 32 | +22 | Clint Bowyer |
| 11 | 13 | +2 | Denny Hamlin |
| 12 | 4 | -8 | Carl Edwards |
| 13 | 27 | +14 | Casey Mears |
| 14 | 22 | +8 | Ty Dillon |
| 15 | 1 | -14 | Kasey Kahne |
| 16 | 19 | +3 | Danica Patrick |
| 17 | 16 | -1 | Kyle Larson |
| 18 | 23 | +5 | Ryan Newman |
| 19 | 8 | -11 | Jimmie Johnson |
| 20 | 7 | -13 | Austin Dillon |
| 21 | 6 | -15 | Jeff Gordon |
| 22 | 26 | +4 | Aric Almirola |
| 23 | 31 | +8 | A.J. Allmendinger |
| 24 | 5 | -19 | Ryan Blaney |
| 25 | 33 | +8 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. |
| 26 | 30 | +4 | Sam Hornish Jr. |
| 27 | 36 | +9 | Justin Allgaier |
| 28 | 15 | -13 | Tony Stewart |
| 29 | 2 | -27 | Kevin Harvick |
| 30 | 35 | +5 | Michael Annett |
| 31 | 29 | -2 | Landon Cassill |
| 32 | 40 | +8 | Cole Whitt |
| 33 | 37 | +4 | Brett Moffitt |
| 34 | 39 | +5 | Josh Wise |
| 35 | 18 | -17 | David Ragan |
| 36 | 21 | -15 | Greg Biffle |
| 37 | 38 | +1 | Jeb Burton |
| 38 | 41 | +3 | J.J. Yeley |
| 39 | 43 | +4 | Matt DiBenedetto |
| 40 | 42 | +2 | Mike Bliss |
| 41 | 28 | -13 | Alex Bowman |
| 42 | 34 | -8 | David Gilliland |
| 43 | 10 | -33 | Kyle Busch |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 16 matched drivers, the model averaged 9.2 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Martin Truex, Jr. | 15.4 | 3 | +12.4 |
| 5 | Joey Logano | 14.7 | 5 | +9.7 |
| 6 | Brad Keselowski | 11.2 | 6 | +5.2 |
| 11 | Denny Hamlin | 8.2 | 11 | -2.8 |
| 13 | Casey Mears | 16.9 | 13 | +3.9 |
| 14 | Ty Dillon | 23.4 | 14 | +9.4 |
| 17 | Kyle Larson | 12.7 | 17 | -4.3 |
| 19 | Jimmie Johnson | 19.9 | 19 | +0.9 |
| 20 | Austin Dillon | 17.1 | 20 | -2.9 |
| 23 | A.J. Allmendinger | 18.3 | 23 | -4.7 |
| 24 | Ryan Blaney | 9.2 | 24 | -14.8 |
| 25 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 19.9 | 25 | -5.1 |
| 27 | Justin Allgaier | 18.3 | 27 | -8.7 |
| 38 | J.J. Yeley | 28.8 | 38 | -9.2 |
| 41 | Alex Bowman | 13.5 | 41 | -27.5 |
| 43 | Kyle Busch | 17.0 | 43 | -26.0 |
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Kurt Busch: has 46 career starts at Michigan International Speedway with a 16.4 avg finish (3 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 41 career starts at Michigan International Speedway with a 10.9 avg finish (5 wins), finishing P11 on the day.
- Martin Truex, Jr.: was the biggest surprise, finishing P3 vs predicted P15. Track history: 35 starts, 13.7 avg finish.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2015 NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES AT MICHIGAN?
Kurt Busch won the 2015 NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES AT MICHIGAN at Michigan International Speedway.
Where was the 2015 NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES AT MICHIGAN held?
The 2015 NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES AT MICHIGAN was held at Michigan International Speedway on June 14, 2015.