NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES AT MICHIGAN

Michigan International Speedway — June 14, 2015

Kurt Busch
Winner
138
Laps
43
Entries
11
Leaders

Kurt Busch won the 2015 NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES AT MICHIGAN at Michigan International Speedway on June 14, 2015, leading 6 of 138 laps. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. finished second; Martin Truex, Jr. rounded out the podium. The race featured 11 different leaders.

Race Details
Date
Sunday, June 14, 2015
Season
2015
Winner
Leaders
11 drivers
Pos Start +/- Driver
1 24 +23 Kurt Busch
2 14 +12 Dale Earnhardt, Jr.
3 9 +6 Martin Truex, Jr.
4 12 +8 Matt Kenseth
5 11 +6 Joey Logano
6 3 -3 Brad Keselowski
7 25 +18 Jamie McMurray
8 17 +9 Paul Menard
9 20 +11 Trevor Bayne
10 32 +22 Clint Bowyer
11 13 +2 Denny Hamlin
12 4 -8 Carl Edwards
13 27 +14 Casey Mears
14 22 +8 Ty Dillon
15 1 -14 Kasey Kahne
16 19 +3 Danica Patrick
17 16 -1 Kyle Larson
18 23 +5 Ryan Newman
19 8 -11 Jimmie Johnson
20 7 -13 Austin Dillon
21 6 -15 Jeff Gordon
22 26 +4 Aric Almirola
23 31 +8 A.J. Allmendinger
24 5 -19 Ryan Blaney
25 33 +8 Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
26 30 +4 Sam Hornish Jr.
27 36 +9 Justin Allgaier
28 15 -13 Tony Stewart
29 2 -27 Kevin Harvick
30 35 +5 Michael Annett
31 29 -2 Landon Cassill
32 40 +8 Cole Whitt
33 37 +4 Brett Moffitt
34 39 +5 Josh Wise
35 18 -17 David Ragan
36 21 -15 Greg Biffle
37 38 +1 Jeb Burton
38 41 +3 J.J. Yeley
39 43 +4 Matt DiBenedetto
40 42 +2 Mike Bliss
41 28 -13 Alex Bowman
42 34 -8 David Gilliland
43 10 -33 Kyle Busch
Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 16 matched drivers, the model averaged 9.2 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos Driver Predicted Actual Delta
3 Martin Truex, Jr. 15.4 3 +12.4
5 Joey Logano 14.7 5 +9.7
6 Brad Keselowski 11.2 6 +5.2
11 Denny Hamlin 8.2 11 -2.8
13 Casey Mears 16.9 13 +3.9
14 Ty Dillon 23.4 14 +9.4
17 Kyle Larson 12.7 17 -4.3
19 Jimmie Johnson 19.9 19 +0.9
20 Austin Dillon 17.1 20 -2.9
23 A.J. Allmendinger 18.3 23 -4.7
24 Ryan Blaney 9.2 24 -14.8
25 Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 19.9 25 -5.1
27 Justin Allgaier 18.3 27 -8.7
38 J.J. Yeley 28.8 38 -9.2
41 Alex Bowman 13.5 41 -27.5
43 Kyle Busch 17.0 43 -26.0

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

  • Kurt Busch: has 46 career starts at Michigan International Speedway with a 16.4 avg finish (3 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
  • Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 41 career starts at Michigan International Speedway with a 10.9 avg finish (5 wins), finishing P11 on the day.
  • Martin Truex, Jr.: was the biggest surprise, finishing P3 vs predicted P15. Track history: 35 starts, 13.7 avg finish.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Who won the 2015 NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES AT MICHIGAN?
Kurt Busch won the 2015 NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES AT MICHIGAN at Michigan International Speedway.
Where was the 2015 NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES AT MICHIGAN held?
The 2015 NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES AT MICHIGAN was held at Michigan International Speedway on June 14, 2015.