NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES AT TALLADEGA

Talladega Superspeedway — May 3, 2015

Dale Earnhardt, Jr.

Winner

188

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Dale Earnhardt, Jr. won the 2015 NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES AT TALLADEGA at Talladega Superspeedway on May 3, 2015, leading 67 of 188 laps. Jimmie Johnson finished second; Paul Menard rounded out the podium. The race featured 15 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, May 3, 2015

Track

Talladega Superspeedway

Season

2015

Winner

Dale Earnhardt, Jr.

Leaders

15 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	4	+3	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.	188	—	Running	67	48
2	5	+3	Jimmie Johnson	188	—	Running	50	43
3	7	+4	Paul Menard	188	—	Running	—	41
4	3	-1	Ryan Blaney	188	—	Running	—	0
5	36	+31	Martin Truex, Jr.	188	—	Running	—	39
6	12	+6	Sam Hornish Jr.	188	—	Running	—	38
7	18	+11	Ryan Newman	188	—	Running	—	37
8	24	+16	Kevin Harvick	188	—	Running	1	37
9	17	+8	Denny Hamlin	188	—	Running	5	36
10	34	+24	Josh Wise	188	—	Running	1	35
11	27	+16	Jamie McMurray	188	—	Running	—	33
12	19	+7	Kurt Busch	188	—	Running	1	33
13	41	+28	Cole Whitt	188	—	Running	2	32
14	42	+28	J.J. Yeley	188	—	Running	—	0
15	28	+13	Aric Almirola	188	—	Running	—	29
16	37	+21	Alex Bowman	188	—	Running	—	28
17	31	+14	A.J. Allmendinger	188	—	Running	—	27
18	43	+25	Matt DiBenedetto	188	—	Running	—	26
19	6	-13	Tony Stewart	188	—	Running	6	26
20	39	+19	David Gilliland	188	—	Running	1	25
21	25	+4	Danica Patrick	188	—	Running	—	23
22	15	-7	Brad Keselowski	188	—	Running	—	22
23	35	+12	Justin Allgaier	188	—	Running	1	22
24	38	+14	Chris Buescher	188	—	Running	—	0
25	8	-17	Matt Kenseth	188	—	Running	—	19
26	29	+3	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	188	—	Running	1	19
27	32	+5	Bobby Labonte	188	—	Running	1	18
28	11	-17	Casey Mears	188	—	Running	1	17
29	40	+11	Michael Annett	188	—	Running	—	15
30	10	-20	Clint Bowyer	188	—	Running	—	14
31	1	-30	Jeff Gordon	188	—	Running	47	14
32	22	-10	Carl Edwards	188	—	Running	—	12
33	21	-12	Joey Logano	186	—	Running	—	11
34	2	-32	Kasey Kahne	158	—	DNF	3	11
35	14	-21	Austin Dillon	157	—	DNF	—	9
36	23	-13	Michael Waltrip	151	—	DNF	—	8
37	20	-17	Greg Biffle	147	—	DNF	—	7
38	9	-29	David Ragan	123	—	DNF	—	6
39	30	-9	Landon Cassill	91	—	DNF	—	0
40	33	-7	Brendan Gaughan	90	—	DNF	—	0
41	26	-15	Trevor Bayne	46	—	DNF	—	3
42	13	-29	Kyle Larson	46	—	DNF	—	2
43	16	-27	Brian Scott	18	—	DNF	—	0

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 15 matched drivers, the model averaged 9.8 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
2	Jimmie Johnson	18.9	2	+16.9	Coinflip
4	Ryan Blaney	13.9	4	+9.9	Moderate
5	Martin Truex, Jr.	20.1	5	+15.1	Coinflip
9	Denny Hamlin	16.0	9	+7.0	Coinflip
14	J.J. Yeley	25.2	14	+11.2	High Confidence
16	Alex Bowman	15.1	16	-0.9	Coinflip
17	A.J. Allmendinger	20.1	17	+3.1	Moderate
22	Brad Keselowski	16.0	22	-6.0	Coinflip
23	Justin Allgaier	21.1	23	-1.9	Moderate
24	Chris Buescher	13.6	24	-10.4	Moderate
26	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	18.5	26	-7.5	Coinflip
28	Casey Mears	18.5	28	-9.5	Coinflip
33	Joey Logano	20.5	33	-12.5	Moderate
35	Austin Dillon	23.4	35	-11.6	High Confidence
42	Kyle Larson	18.5	42	-23.5	Coinflip

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Dale Earnhardt, Jr.: has 33 career starts at Talladega Superspeedway with a 14.1 avg finish (6 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Chris Buescher: was the model’s top pick based on 20 career starts at Talladega Superspeedway with a 16.3 avg finish, finishing P24 on the day.
Jimmie Johnson: was the biggest surprise, finishing P2 vs predicted P19. Track history: 39 starts, 18.5 avg finish.

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