NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES AT MARTINSVILLE

Martinsville Speedway — April 3, 2016

Kyle Busch

Winner

500

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Kyle Busch won the 2016 NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES AT MARTINSVILLE at Martinsville Speedway on April 3, 2016, leading 352 of 500 laps. A.J. Allmendinger finished second; Kyle Larson rounded out the podium. The race featured 5 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, April 3, 2016

Track

Martinsville Speedway

Season

2016

Winner

Kyle Busch

Leaders

5 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	7	+6	Kyle Busch	500	—	Running	352	45
2	6	+4	A.J. Allmendinger	500	—	Running	—	39
3	17	+14	Kyle Larson	500	—	Running	—	38
4	29	+25	Austin Dillon	500	—	Running	—	37
5	11	+6	Brad Keselowski	500	—	Running	—	36
6	25	+19	Carl Edwards	500	—	Running	—	35
7	3	-4	Brian Vickers	500	—	Running	—	34
8	4	-4	Paul Menard	500	—	Running	10	34
9	24	+15	Jimmie Johnson	500	—	Running	—	32
10	5	-5	Ryan Newman	500	—	Running	—	31
11	1	-10	Joey Logano	500	—	Running	21	31
12	14	+2	Greg Biffle	500	—	Running	—	29
13	23	+10	Kurt Busch	500	—	Running	—	28
14	21	+7	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.	500	—	Running	—	27
15	9	-6	Matt Kenseth	500	—	Running	45	27
16	28	+12	Danica Patrick	500	—	Running	—	25
17	19	+2	Kevin Harvick	500	—	Running	72	25
18	16	-2	Martin Truex, Jr.	500	—	Running	—	23
19	12	-7	Ryan Blaney	500	—	Running	—	22
20	10	-10	Chase Elliott	499	—	Running	—	21
21	22	+1	David Ragan	499	—	Running	—	20
22	2	-20	Kasey Kahne	499	—	Running	—	19
23	15	-8	Jamie McMurray	499	—	Running	—	18
24	27	+3	Michael McDowell	498	—	Running	—	17
25	30	+5	Clint Bowyer	497	—	Running	—	16
26	26	—	Brian Scott	496	—	Running	—	15
27	32	+5	Trevor Bayne	496	—	Running	—	14
28	33	+5	Landon Cassill	495	—	Running	—	13
29	35	+6	Matt DiBenedetto	495	—	Running	—	12
30	31	+1	Cole Whitt	495	—	Running	—	11
31	18	-13	Casey Mears	494	—	Running	—	10
32	13	-19	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	494	—	Running	—	9
33	36	+3	Chris Buescher	491	—	Running	—	8
34	34	—	Regan Smith	491	—	Running	—	7
35	38	+3	Michael Annett	490	—	Running	—	6
36	37	+1	Joey Gase	490	—	Running	—	0
37	40	+3	Reed Sorenson	490	—	Running	—	4
38	39	+1	Josh Wise	326	—	DNF	—	3
39	8	-31	Denny Hamlin	221	—	DNF	—	2
40	20	-20	Aric Almirola	206	—	DNF	—	1

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 16 matched drivers, the model averaged 12.3 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
1	Kyle Busch	15.6	1	+14.6	Coinflip
2	A.J. Allmendinger	18.3	2	+16.3	Moderate
3	Kyle Larson	8.6	3	+5.6	Moderate
4	Austin Dillon	17.0	4	+13.0	Coinflip
5	Brad Keselowski	12.0	5	+7.0	Coinflip
9	Jimmie Johnson	17.7	9	+8.7	Moderate
11	Joey Logano	12.1	11	+1.1	Coinflip
18	Martin Truex, Jr.	13.8	18	-4.2	Coinflip
19	Ryan Blaney	6.8	19	-12.2	High Confidence
20	Chase Elliott	8.3	20	-11.7	High Confidence
24	Michael McDowell	15.0	24	-9.0	Coinflip
31	Casey Mears	18.0	31	-13.0	Moderate
32	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	20.1	32	-11.9	Moderate
33	Chris Buescher	10.3	33	-22.7	Moderate
36	Joey Gase	22.0	36	-14.0	High Confidence
39	Denny Hamlin	6.8	39	-32.2	High Confidence

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Kyle Busch: has 52 career starts at Martinsville Speedway with a 12.1 avg finish (4 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Ryan Blaney: was the model’s top pick based on 30 career starts at Martinsville Speedway with a 11.7 avg finish (2 wins), finishing P19 on the day.
A.J. Allmendinger: was the biggest surprise, finishing P2 vs predicted P18. Track history: 30 starts, 19.4 avg finish.

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