DAYTONA 500

Daytona International Speedway, February 21, 2016

Denny Hamlin

Winner

200

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Denny Hamlin won the 2016 DAYTONA 500 at Daytona International Speedway on February 21, 2016, leading 95 of 200 laps. Martin Truex, Jr. finished second; Kyle Busch rounded out the podium. The race featured 15 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, February 21, 2016

Track

Daytona International Speedway

Season

2016

Winner

Denny Hamlin

Leaders

15 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	11	+10	Denny Hamlin	200	—	Running	95	45
2	28	+26	Martin Truex, Jr.	200	—	Running	2	40
3	4	+1	Kyle Busch	200	—	Running	19	39
4	9	+5	Kevin Harvick	200	—	Running	—	37
5	10	+5	Carl Edwards	200	—	Running	—	36
6	5	-1	Joey Logano	200	—	Running	—	35
7	14	+7	Kyle Larson	200	—	Running	—	34
8	27	+19	Regan Smith	200	—	Running	—	33
9	21	+12	Austin Dillon	200	—	Running	1	33
10	8	-2	Kurt Busch	200	—	Running	—	31
11	38	+27	Ryan Newman	200	—	Running	1	31
12	34	+22	Aric Almirola	200	—	Running	—	29
13	13	—	Kasey Kahne	200	—	Running	—	28
14	2	-12	Matt Kenseth	200	—	Running	40	28
15	39	+24	Michael McDowell	200	—	Running	—	26
16	26	+10	Jimmie Johnson	200	—	Running	18	26
17	6	-11	Jamie McMurray	200	—	Running	—	24
18	37	+19	Paul Menard	200	—	Running	—	23
19	7	-12	Ryan Blaney	200	—	Running	—	22
20	25	+5	Brad Keselowski	200	—	Running	1	22
21	30	+9	A.J. Allmendinger	200	—	Running	—	20
22	19	-3	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	200	—	Running	—	19
23	24	+1	Landon Cassill	200	—	Running	—	18
24	35	+11	Brian Scott	200	—	Running	1	18
25	12	-13	Ty Dillon	200	—	Running	—	0
26	18	-8	Brian Vickers	200	—	Running	—	15
27	22	-5	Michael Annett	200	—	Running	1	15
28	23	-5	Trevor Bayne	200	—	Running	—	13
29	29	—	David Ragan	200	—	Running	1	13
30	36	+6	Michael Waltrip	200	—	Running	1	12
31	33	+2	Bobby Labonte	200	—	Running	1	11
32	32	—	Casey Mears	199	—	Running	—	9
33	31	-2	Clint Bowyer	199	—	Running	—	8
34	15	-19	Greg Biffle	198	—	Running	—	7
35	16	-19	Danica Patrick	184	—	Running	—	6
36	3	-33	Dale Earnhardt, Jr.	169	—	DNF	15	6
37	1	-36	Chase Elliott	160	—	DNF	3	5
38	40	+2	Robert Richardson Jr.	135	—	DNF	—	3
39	17	-22	Chris Buescher	91	—	DNF	—	2
40	20	-20	Matt DiBenedetto	91	—	DNF	—	1

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 15 matched drivers, the model averaged 10.5 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
1	Denny Hamlin	15.1	1	+14.1	Coinflip
2	Martin Truex, Jr.	20.5	2	+18.5	Coinflip
6	Joey Logano	18.5	6	+12.5	Coinflip
7	Kyle Larson	20.1	7	+13.1	Coinflip
9	Austin Dillon	21.1	9	+12.1	Moderate
15	Michael McDowell	19.2	15	+4.2	Coinflip
16	Jimmie Johnson	20.0	16	+4.0	Coinflip
19	Ryan Blaney	10.4	19	-8.6	Moderate
20	Brad Keselowski	18.5	20	-1.5	Coinflip
21	A.J. Allmendinger	22.9	21	+1.9	Moderate
22	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	18.5	22	-3.5	Coinflip
25	Ty Dillon	22.9	25	-2.1	High Confidence
32	Casey Mears	20.0	32	-12.0	Coinflip
37	Chase Elliott	13.6	37	-23.4	Moderate
39	Chris Buescher	13.6	39	-25.4	Moderate

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Denny Hamlin: has 50 career starts at Daytona International Speedway with a 18.0 avg finish (4 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Ryan Blaney: was the model’s top pick based on 26 career starts at Daytona International Speedway with a 16.5 avg finish (2 wins), finishing P19 on the day.
Martin Truex, Jr.: was the biggest surprise, finishing P2 vs predicted P21. Track history: 40 starts, 21.7 avg finish.

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