NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES AT MIAMI

Homestead-Miami Speedway, November 20, 2016

Jimmie Johnson

Winner

268

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Jimmie Johnson won the 2016 NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES AT MIAMI at Homestead-Miami Speedway on November 20, 2016, leading 3 of 268 laps. Kyle Larson finished second; Kevin Harvick rounded out the podium. The race featured 6 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, November 20, 2016

Track

Homestead-Miami Speedway

Season

2016

Winner

Jimmie Johnson

Leaders

6 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	14	+13	Jimmie Johnson	268	—	Running	3	40
2	24	+22	Kyle Larson	268	—	Running	132	41
3	1	-2	Kevin Harvick	268	—	Running	79	39
4	13	+9	Joey Logano	268	—	Running	6	37
5	15	+10	Jamie McMurray	268	—	Running	—	36
6	9	+3	Kyle Busch	268	—	Running	1	35
7	7	—	Matt Kenseth	268	—	Running	—	34
8	12	+4	A.J. Allmendinger	268	—	Running	—	33
9	4	-5	Denny Hamlin	268	—	Running	—	32
10	26	+16	Michael McDowell	268	—	Running	—	31
11	5	-6	Chase Elliott	268	—	Running	—	30
12	17	+5	Austin Dillon	268	—	Running	—	29
13	16	+3	Kurt Busch	268	—	Running	—	28
14	28	+14	Paul Menard	268	—	Running	—	27
15	22	+7	Brian Scott	268	—	Running	—	26
16	19	+3	Alex Bowman	268	—	Running	—	0
17	21	+4	Greg Biffle	267	—	Running	—	24
18	23	+5	Casey Mears	267	—	Running	—	23
19	30	+11	Danica Patrick	266	—	Running	—	22
20	20	—	Trevor Bayne	266	—	Running	—	21
21	32	+11	Landon Cassill	266	—	Running	—	20
22	11	-11	Tony Stewart	266	—	Running	—	19
23	33	+10	Clint Bowyer	266	—	Running	—	18
24	27	+3	Chris Buescher	266	—	Running	—	17
25	3	-22	Ryan Newman	264	—	Running	—	16
26	8	-18	Ryan Blaney	264	—	Running	—	15
27	31	+4	Matt DiBenedetto	264	—	Running	—	14
28	40	+12	Michael Annett	264	—	Running	—	13
29	36	+7	David Ragan	264	—	Running	—	12
30	18	-12	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	262	—	Running	—	11
31	38	+7	Jeffrey Earnhardt	261	—	Running	—	10
32	37	+5	Reed Sorenson	259	—	Running	—	9
33	34	+1	Ty Dillon	258	—	Running	—	0
34	10	-24	Carl Edwards	257	—	Running	47	7
35	2	-33	Brad Keselowski	257	—	Running	—	6
36	6	-30	Martin Truex, Jr.	257	—	Running	—	5
37	29	-8	Kasey Kahne	257	—	Running	—	4
38	35	-3	Regan Smith	255	—	Running	—	3
39	39	—	Dylan Lupton	250	—	Running	—	0
40	25	-15	Aric Almirola	213	—	DNF	—	1

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 16 matched drivers, the model averaged 10.0 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
1	Jimmie Johnson	19.9	1	+18.9	Moderate
2	Kyle Larson	13.1	2	+11.1	Coinflip
4	Joey Logano	11.9	4	+7.9	Coinflip
8	A.J. Allmendinger	17.1	8	+9.1	Coinflip
9	Denny Hamlin	6.2	9	-2.8	High Confidence
10	Michael McDowell	16.9	10	+6.9	Coinflip
11	Chase Elliott	10.1	11	-0.9	Moderate
12	Austin Dillon	19.9	12	+7.9	Moderate
16	Alex Bowman	16.2	16	+0.2	Coinflip
18	Casey Mears	19.1	18	+1.1	Moderate
24	Chris Buescher	9.2	24	-14.8	High Confidence
26	Ryan Blaney	8.2	26	-17.8	High Confidence
30	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	19.9	30	-10.1	Moderate
33	Ty Dillon	22.9	33	-10.1	High Confidence
35	Brad Keselowski	15.4	35	-19.6	Coinflip
36	Martin Truex, Jr.	15.4	36	-20.6	Coinflip

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Jimmie Johnson: has 24 career starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway with a 15.7 avg finish (1 win) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 27 career starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway with a 10.5 avg finish (3 wins), finishing P9 on the day.

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