NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES AT KANSAS
Kansas Speedway — October 16, 2016
Kevin Harvick
Winner
267
Laps
40
Entries
10
Leaders
Kevin Harvick won the 2016 NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES AT KANSAS at Kansas Speedway on October 16, 2016, leading 74 of 267 laps. Carl Edwards finished second; Joey Logano rounded out the podium. The race featured 10 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Sunday, October 16, 2016
Track
Season
2016
Winner
Leaders
10 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | +10 | Kevin Harvick |
| 2 | 3 | +1 | Carl Edwards |
| 3 | 6 | +3 | Joey Logano |
| 4 | 21 | +17 | Jimmie Johnson |
| 5 | 2 | -3 | Kyle Busch |
| 6 | 12 | +6 | Austin Dillon |
| 7 | 5 | -2 | Alex Bowman |
| 8 | 10 | +2 | A.J. Allmendinger |
| 9 | 1 | -8 | Matt Kenseth |
| 10 | 20 | +10 | Kasey Kahne |
| 11 | 4 | -7 | Martin Truex, Jr. |
| 12 | 9 | -3 | Ryan Newman |
| 13 | 15 | +2 | Kurt Busch |
| 14 | 17 | +3 | Ryan Blaney |
| 15 | 7 | -8 | Denny Hamlin |
| 16 | 14 | -2 | Tony Stewart |
| 17 | 25 | +8 | Trevor Bayne |
| 18 | 19 | +1 | Danica Patrick |
| 19 | 18 | -1 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. |
| 20 | 16 | -4 | Paul Menard |
| 21 | 30 | +9 | Chris Buescher |
| 22 | 33 | +11 | Michael McDowell |
| 23 | 29 | +6 | Casey Mears |
| 24 | 27 | +3 | Matt DiBenedetto |
| 25 | 22 | -3 | Greg Biffle |
| 26 | 31 | +5 | Clint Bowyer |
| 27 | 34 | +7 | Landon Cassill |
| 28 | 32 | +4 | Brian Scott |
| 29 | 26 | -3 | Regan Smith |
| 30 | 24 | -6 | Kyle Larson |
| 31 | 13 | -18 | Chase Elliott |
| 32 | 37 | +5 | Michael Annett |
| 33 | 36 | +3 | Cole Whitt |
| 34 | 39 | +5 | Reed Sorenson |
| 35 | 38 | +3 | Joey Gase |
| 36 | 28 | -8 | David Ragan |
| 37 | 23 | -14 | Jamie McMurray |
| 38 | 8 | -30 | Brad Keselowski |
| 39 | 40 | +1 | Josh Wise |
| 40 | 35 | -5 | Aric Almirola |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 17 matched drivers, the model averaged 11.0 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Joey Logano | 14.7 | 3 | +11.7 |
| 4 | Jimmie Johnson | 19.9 | 4 | +15.9 |
| 5 | Kyle Busch | 17.0 | 5 | +12.0 |
| 6 | Austin Dillon | 17.1 | 6 | +11.1 |
| 7 | Alex Bowman | 13.5 | 7 | +6.5 |
| 8 | A.J. Allmendinger | 18.3 | 8 | +10.3 |
| 11 | Martin Truex, Jr. | 15.4 | 11 | +4.4 |
| 14 | Ryan Blaney | 9.2 | 14 | -4.8 |
| 15 | Denny Hamlin | 8.2 | 15 | -6.8 |
| 19 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 19.9 | 19 | +0.9 |
| 21 | Chris Buescher | 9.2 | 21 | -11.8 |
| 22 | Michael McDowell | 17.0 | 22 | -5.0 |
| 23 | Casey Mears | 16.9 | 23 | -6.1 |
| 30 | Kyle Larson | 12.7 | 30 | -17.3 |
| 31 | Chase Elliott | 7.8 | 31 | -23.2 |
| 35 | Joey Gase | 23.4 | 35 | -11.6 |
| 38 | Brad Keselowski | 11.2 | 38 | -26.8 |
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Kevin Harvick: has 45 career starts at Kansas Speedway with a 9.8 avg finish (4 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Chase Elliott: was the model’s top pick based on 22 career starts at Kansas Speedway with a 9.4 avg finish (2 wins), finishing P31 on the day.
- Jimmie Johnson: was the biggest surprise, finishing P4 vs predicted P20. Track history: 26 starts, 9.2 avg finish.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2016 NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES AT KANSAS?
Kevin Harvick won the 2016 NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES AT KANSAS at Kansas Speedway.
Where was the 2016 NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES AT KANSAS held?
The 2016 NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES AT KANSAS was held at Kansas Speedway on October 16, 2016.