NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES AT BRISTOL
Bristol Motor Speedway — August 20, 2016
Kevin Harvick
Winner
500
Laps
40
Entries
8
Leaders
Kevin Harvick won the 2016 NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES AT BRISTOL at Bristol Motor Speedway on August 20, 2016, leading 128 of 500 laps. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. finished second; Denny Hamlin rounded out the podium. The race featured 8 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Saturday, August 20, 2016
Track
Season
2016
Winner
Leaders
8 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 24 | +23 | Kevin Harvick |
| 2 | 25 | +23 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. |
| 3 | 2 | -1 | Denny Hamlin |
| 4 | 13 | +9 | Austin Dillon |
| 5 | 12 | +7 | Chris Buescher |
| 6 | 1 | -5 | Carl Edwards |
| 7 | 16 | +9 | Jimmie Johnson |
| 8 | 28 | +20 | Jamie McMurray |
| 9 | 8 | -1 | A.J. Allmendinger |
| 10 | 10 | — | Joey Logano |
| 11 | 11 | — | Jeff Gordon |
| 12 | 22 | +10 | Trevor Bayne |
| 13 | 19 | +6 | Kasey Kahne |
| 14 | 17 | +3 | Aric Almirola |
| 15 | 6 | -9 | Chase Elliott |
| 16 | 34 | +18 | Greg Biffle |
| 17 | 18 | +1 | Matt DiBenedetto |
| 18 | 30 | +12 | Brian Scott |
| 19 | 26 | +7 | Michael McDowell |
| 20 | 32 | +12 | Landon Cassill |
| 21 | 37 | +16 | David Ragan |
| 22 | 29 | +7 | Danica Patrick |
| 23 | 7 | -16 | Martin Truex, Jr. |
| 24 | 23 | -1 | Kyle Larson |
| 25 | 21 | -4 | Casey Mears |
| 26 | 33 | +7 | Regan Smith |
| 27 | 36 | +9 | Reed Sorenson |
| 28 | 15 | -13 | Ryan Newman |
| 29 | 38 | +9 | Jeffrey Earnhardt |
| 30 | 27 | -3 | Tony Stewart |
| 31 | 31 | — | Clint Bowyer |
| 32 | 20 | -12 | Paul Menard |
| 33 | 9 | -24 | Brad Keselowski |
| 34 | 35 | +1 | Cole Whitt |
| 35 | 4 | -31 | Ryan Blaney |
| 36 | 40 | +4 | Josh Wise |
| 37 | 5 | -32 | Matt Kenseth |
| 38 | 14 | -24 | Kurt Busch |
| 39 | 3 | -36 | Kyle Busch |
| 40 | 39 | -1 | Justin Allgaier |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 16 matched drivers, the model averaged 12.5 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 20.1 | 2 | +18.1 |
| 3 | Denny Hamlin | 6.8 | 3 | +3.8 |
| 4 | Austin Dillon | 17.0 | 4 | +13.0 |
| 5 | Chris Buescher | 10.3 | 5 | +5.3 |
| 7 | Jimmie Johnson | 17.7 | 7 | +10.7 |
| 9 | A.J. Allmendinger | 18.3 | 9 | +9.3 |
| 10 | Joey Logano | 12.1 | 10 | +2.1 |
| 15 | Chase Elliott | 8.3 | 15 | -6.7 |
| 19 | Michael McDowell | 15.0 | 19 | -4.0 |
| 23 | Martin Truex, Jr. | 13.8 | 23 | -9.2 |
| 24 | Kyle Larson | 8.6 | 24 | -15.4 |
| 25 | Casey Mears | 18.0 | 25 | -7.0 |
| 33 | Brad Keselowski | 12.0 | 33 | -21.0 |
| 35 | Ryan Blaney | 6.8 | 35 | -28.2 |
| 39 | Kyle Busch | 15.6 | 39 | -23.4 |
| 40 | Justin Allgaier | 17.7 | 40 | -22.3 |
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Kevin Harvick: has 77 career starts at Bristol Motor Speedway with a 11.1 avg finish (9 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 48 career starts at Bristol Motor Speedway with a 14.3 avg finish (4 wins), finishing P3 on the day.
- Ricky Stenhouse Jr.: was the biggest surprise, finishing P2 vs predicted P20. Track history: 24 starts, 14.1 avg finish.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2016 NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES AT BRISTOL?
Kevin Harvick won the 2016 NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES AT BRISTOL at Bristol Motor Speedway.
Where was the 2016 NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES AT BRISTOL held?
The 2016 NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES AT BRISTOL was held at Bristol Motor Speedway on August 20, 2016.