NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES AT WATKINS GLEN

Watkins Glen International — August 7, 2016

Denny Hamlin

Winner

Laps

Entries

Leaders

Denny Hamlin won the 2016 NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES AT WATKINS GLEN at Watkins Glen International on August 7, 2016, leading 10 of 90 laps. Joey Logano finished second; Brad Keselowski rounded out the podium. The race featured 8 different leaders.

Race Details

Date

Sunday, August 7, 2016

Track

Watkins Glen International

Season

2016

Winner

Denny Hamlin

Leaders

8 drivers

Sort by

Pos	Start	+/-	Driver	Laps	Interval	Status	Led	Pts
1	6	+5	Denny Hamlin	90	—	Running	10	44
2	7	+5	Joey Logano	90	—	Running	8	40
3	12	+9	Brad Keselowski	90	—	Running	28	40
4	9	+5	A.J. Allmendinger	90	—	Running	—	37
5	3	-2	Tony Stewart	90	—	Running	—	36
6	5	-1	Kyle Busch	90	—	Running	4	36
7	14	+7	Martin Truex, Jr.	90	—	Running	1	35
8	10	+2	Jamie McMurray	90	—	Running	—	33
9	32	+23	Trevor Bayne	90	—	Running	—	32
10	4	-6	Matt Kenseth	90	—	Running	—	31
11	17	+6	Kurt Busch	90	—	Running	3	31
12	20	+8	Casey Mears	90	—	Running	—	29
13	16	+3	Chase Elliott	90	—	Running	—	28
14	21	+7	Jeff Gordon	90	—	Running	—	27
15	1	-14	Carl Edwards	90	—	Running	25	27
16	8	-8	Ryan Newman	90	—	Running	—	25
17	11	-6	Michael McDowell	90	—	Running	—	24
18	28	+10	Clint Bowyer	90	—	Running	—	23
19	19	—	Ryan Blaney	90	—	Running	—	22
20	23	+3	Kasey Kahne	90	—	Running	—	21
21	31	+10	Danica Patrick	90	—	Running	11	21
22	33	+11	Paul Menard	90	—	Running	—	19
23	40	+17	Landon Cassill	90	—	Running	—	18
24	37	+13	Boris Said	90	—	Running	—	17
25	27	+2	Brian Scott	90	—	Running	—	16
26	39	+13	Josh Wise	90	—	Running	—	15
27	34	+7	Aric Almirola	90	—	Running	—	14
28	22	-6	Cole Whitt	90	—	Running	—	13
29	2	-27	Kyle Larson	89	—	Running	—	12
30	25	-5	Chris Buescher	89	—	Running	—	11
31	18	-13	Austin Dillon	89	—	Running	—	10
32	15	-17	Kevin Harvick	83	—	Running	—	9
33	26	-7	David Ragan	83	—	Running	—	8
34	35	+1	Matt DiBenedetto	83	—	Running	—	7
35	29	-6	Regan Smith	77	—	Running	—	6
36	36	—	Alex Kennedy	76	—	DNF	—	5
37	38	+1	Michael Annett	74	—	DNF	—	4
38	30	-8	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	52	—	DNF	—	3
39	24	-15	Greg Biffle	52	—	DNF	—	2
40	13	-27	Jimmie Johnson	52	—	DNF	—	1

Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 15 matched drivers, the model averaged 11.7 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos	Driver	Predicted	Actual	Delta	Conf.
1	Denny Hamlin	16.7	1	+15.7	Moderate
2	Joey Logano	12.7	2	+10.7	Moderate
3	Brad Keselowski	16.7	3	+13.7	High Confidence
4	A.J. Allmendinger	16.5	4	+12.5	Coinflip
6	Kyle Busch	13.0	6	+7.0	Coinflip
7	Martin Truex, Jr.	16.5	7	+9.5	Coinflip
12	Casey Mears	16.7	12	+4.7	Moderate
13	Chase Elliott	7.2	13	-5.8	High Confidence
17	Michael McDowell	13.0	17	-4.0	Moderate
19	Ryan Blaney	12.7	19	-6.3	Moderate
29	Kyle Larson	12.9	29	-16.1	Moderate
30	Chris Buescher	10.2	30	-19.8	High Confidence
31	Austin Dillon	21.4	31	-9.6	Moderate
38	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	21.4	38	-16.6	High Confidence
40	Jimmie Johnson	16.7	40	-23.3	Moderate

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

Denny Hamlin: has 24 career starts at Watkins Glen International with a 17.6 avg finish (1 win) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
Chase Elliott: was the model’s top pick based on 14 career starts at Watkins Glen International with a 14.3 avg finish (2 wins), finishing P13 on the day.

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