NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES AT DAYTONA
Daytona International Speedway — July 2, 2016
Brad Keselowski
Winner
161
Laps
40
Entries
13
Leaders
Brad Keselowski won the 2016 NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES AT DAYTONA at Daytona International Speedway on July 2, 2016, leading 115 of 161 laps. Kyle Busch finished second; Trevor Bayne rounded out the podium. The race featured 13 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Saturday, July 2, 2016
Season
2016
Winner
Leaders
13 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | +4 | Brad Keselowski |
| 2 | 3 | +1 | Kyle Busch |
| 3 | 13 | +10 | Trevor Bayne |
| 4 | 11 | +7 | Joey Logano |
| 5 | 4 | -1 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. |
| 6 | 17 | +11 | Kyle Larson |
| 7 | 6 | -1 | Austin Dillon |
| 8 | 1 | -7 | Greg Biffle |
| 9 | 31 | +22 | Clint Bowyer |
| 10 | 37 | +27 | Michael McDowell |
| 11 | 35 | +24 | Cole Whitt |
| 12 | 20 | +8 | Casey Mears |
| 13 | 26 | +13 | A.J. Allmendinger |
| 14 | 12 | -2 | Ryan Blaney |
| 15 | 14 | -1 | Aric Almirola |
| 16 | 38 | +22 | David Ragan |
| 17 | 9 | -8 | Denny Hamlin |
| 18 | 23 | +5 | Ryan Newman |
| 19 | 28 | +9 | David Gilliland |
| 20 | 33 | +13 | Michael Annett |
| 21 | 16 | -5 | Dale Earnhardt, Jr. |
| 22 | 39 | +17 | Reed Sorenson |
| 23 | 10 | -13 | Kurt Busch |
| 24 | 32 | +8 | Bobby Labonte |
| 25 | 2 | -23 | Carl Edwards |
| 26 | 19 | -7 | Tony Stewart |
| 27 | 22 | -5 | Danica Patrick |
| 28 | 7 | -21 | Matt Kenseth |
| 29 | 15 | -14 | Martin Truex, Jr. |
| 30 | 18 | -12 | Kasey Kahne |
| 31 | 34 | +3 | Landon Cassill |
| 32 | 24 | -8 | Chase Elliott |
| 33 | 36 | +3 | Matt DiBenedetto |
| 34 | 29 | -5 | Jamie McMurray |
| 35 | 8 | -27 | Jimmie Johnson |
| 36 | 27 | -9 | Paul Menard |
| 37 | 30 | -7 | Brian Scott |
| 38 | 40 | +2 | Regan Smith |
| 39 | 21 | -18 | Kevin Harvick |
| 40 | 25 | -15 | Chris Buescher |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 15 matched drivers, the model averaged 12.3 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brad Keselowski | 16.0 | 1 | +15.0 |
| 2 | Kyle Busch | 15.1 | 2 | +13.1 |
| 4 | Joey Logano | 20.5 | 4 | +16.5 |
| 5 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 18.5 | 5 | +13.5 |
| 6 | Kyle Larson | 18.5 | 6 | +12.5 |
| 7 | Austin Dillon | 23.4 | 7 | +16.4 |
| 10 | Michael McDowell | 20.0 | 10 | +10.0 |
| 12 | Casey Mears | 18.5 | 12 | +6.5 |
| 13 | A.J. Allmendinger | 20.1 | 13 | +7.1 |
| 14 | Ryan Blaney | 13.9 | 14 | -0.1 |
| 17 | Denny Hamlin | 16.0 | 17 | -1.0 |
| 29 | Martin Truex, Jr. | 20.1 | 29 | -8.9 |
| 32 | Chase Elliott | 10.4 | 32 | -21.6 |
| 35 | Jimmie Johnson | 18.9 | 35 | -16.1 |
| 40 | Chris Buescher | 13.6 | 40 | -26.4 |
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Brad Keselowski: has 45 career starts at Daytona International Speedway with a 18.2 avg finish (1 win) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Chase Elliott: was the model’s top pick based on 30 career starts at Daytona International Speedway with a 15.9 avg finish (2 wins), finishing P32 on the day.
- Joey Logano: was the biggest surprise, finishing P4 vs predicted P21. Track history: 44 starts, 15.5 avg finish.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2016 NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES AT DAYTONA?
Brad Keselowski won the 2016 NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES AT DAYTONA at Daytona International Speedway.
Where was the 2016 NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES AT DAYTONA held?
The 2016 NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES AT DAYTONA was held at Daytona International Speedway on July 2, 2016.