NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES AT MIAMI
Homestead-Miami Speedway — November 20, 2016
Jimmie Johnson
Winner
268
Laps
40
Entries
6
Leaders
Jimmie Johnson won the 2016 NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES AT MIAMI at Homestead-Miami Speedway on November 20, 2016, leading 3 of 268 laps. Kyle Larson finished second; Kevin Harvick rounded out the podium. The race featured 6 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Sunday, November 20, 2016
Track
Season
2016
Winner
Leaders
6 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14 | +13 | Jimmie Johnson |
| 2 | 24 | +22 | Kyle Larson |
| 3 | 1 | -2 | Kevin Harvick |
| 4 | 13 | +9 | Joey Logano |
| 5 | 15 | +10 | Jamie McMurray |
| 6 | 9 | +3 | Kyle Busch |
| 7 | 7 | — | Matt Kenseth |
| 8 | 12 | +4 | A.J. Allmendinger |
| 9 | 4 | -5 | Denny Hamlin |
| 10 | 26 | +16 | Michael McDowell |
| 11 | 5 | -6 | Chase Elliott |
| 12 | 17 | +5 | Austin Dillon |
| 13 | 16 | +3 | Kurt Busch |
| 14 | 28 | +14 | Paul Menard |
| 15 | 22 | +7 | Brian Scott |
| 16 | 19 | +3 | Alex Bowman |
| 17 | 21 | +4 | Greg Biffle |
| 18 | 23 | +5 | Casey Mears |
| 19 | 30 | +11 | Danica Patrick |
| 20 | 20 | — | Trevor Bayne |
| 21 | 32 | +11 | Landon Cassill |
| 22 | 11 | -11 | Tony Stewart |
| 23 | 33 | +10 | Clint Bowyer |
| 24 | 27 | +3 | Chris Buescher |
| 25 | 3 | -22 | Ryan Newman |
| 26 | 8 | -18 | Ryan Blaney |
| 27 | 31 | +4 | Matt DiBenedetto |
| 28 | 40 | +12 | Michael Annett |
| 29 | 36 | +7 | David Ragan |
| 30 | 18 | -12 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. |
| 31 | 38 | +7 | Jeffrey Earnhardt |
| 32 | 37 | +5 | Reed Sorenson |
| 33 | 34 | +1 | Ty Dillon |
| 34 | 10 | -24 | Carl Edwards |
| 35 | 2 | -33 | Brad Keselowski |
| 36 | 6 | -30 | Martin Truex, Jr. |
| 37 | 29 | -8 | Kasey Kahne |
| 38 | 35 | -3 | Regan Smith |
| 39 | 39 | — | Dylan Lupton |
| 40 | 25 | -15 | Aric Almirola |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 17 matched drivers, the model averaged 10.4 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jimmie Johnson | 19.9 | 1 | +18.9 |
| 2 | Kyle Larson | 12.7 | 2 | +10.7 |
| 4 | Joey Logano | 14.7 | 4 | +10.7 |
| 6 | Kyle Busch | 17.0 | 6 | +11.0 |
| 8 | A.J. Allmendinger | 18.3 | 8 | +10.3 |
| 9 | Denny Hamlin | 8.2 | 9 | -0.8 |
| 10 | Michael McDowell | 17.0 | 10 | +7.0 |
| 11 | Chase Elliott | 7.8 | 11 | -3.2 |
| 12 | Austin Dillon | 17.1 | 12 | +5.1 |
| 16 | Alex Bowman | 13.5 | 16 | -2.5 |
| 18 | Casey Mears | 16.9 | 18 | -1.1 |
| 24 | Chris Buescher | 9.2 | 24 | -14.8 |
| 26 | Ryan Blaney | 9.2 | 26 | -16.8 |
| 30 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 19.9 | 30 | -10.1 |
| 33 | Ty Dillon | 23.4 | 33 | -9.6 |
| 35 | Brad Keselowski | 11.2 | 35 | -23.8 |
| 36 | Martin Truex, Jr. | 15.4 | 36 | -20.6 |
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Jimmie Johnson: has 23 career starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway with a 15.2 avg finish (1 win) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Chase Elliott: was the model’s top pick based on 13 career starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway with a 10.4 avg finish, finishing P11 on the day.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2016 NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES AT MIAMI?
Jimmie Johnson won the 2016 NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES AT MIAMI at Homestead-Miami Speedway.
Where was the 2016 NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES AT MIAMI held?
The 2016 NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES AT MIAMI was held at Homestead-Miami Speedway on November 20, 2016.