NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES AT TALLADEGA
Talladega Superspeedway — May 1, 2016
Brad Keselowski
Winner
188
Laps
40
Entries
17
Leaders
Brad Keselowski won the 2016 NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES AT TALLADEGA at Talladega Superspeedway on May 1, 2016, leading 46 of 188 laps. Kyle Busch finished second; Austin Dillon rounded out the podium. The race featured 17 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Sunday, May 1, 2016
Track
Season
2016
Winner
Leaders
17 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | +6 | Brad Keselowski |
| 2 | 17 | +15 | Kyle Busch |
| 3 | 2 | -1 | Austin Dillon |
| 4 | 30 | +26 | Jamie McMurray |
| 5 | 1 | -4 | Chase Elliott |
| 6 | 14 | +8 | Tony Stewart |
| 7 | 34 | +27 | Clint Bowyer |
| 8 | 18 | +10 | Kurt Busch |
| 9 | 19 | +10 | Ryan Blaney |
| 10 | 13 | +3 | Trevor Bayne |
| 11 | 32 | +21 | Landon Cassill |
| 12 | 33 | +21 | Michael Waltrip |
| 13 | 12 | -1 | Martin Truex, Jr. |
| 14 | 28 | +14 | A.J. Allmendinger |
| 15 | 29 | +14 | Kevin Harvick |
| 16 | 6 | -10 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. |
| 17 | 39 | +22 | David Gilliland |
| 18 | 36 | +18 | Cole Whitt |
| 19 | 26 | +7 | Bobby Labonte |
| 20 | 16 | -4 | Greg Biffle |
| 21 | 31 | +10 | Michael McDowell |
| 22 | 5 | -17 | Jimmie Johnson |
| 23 | 4 | -19 | Matt Kenseth |
| 24 | 37 | +13 | Danica Patrick |
| 25 | 22 | -3 | Joey Logano |
| 26 | 10 | -16 | Paul Menard |
| 27 | 23 | -4 | Aric Almirola |
| 28 | 15 | -13 | Ryan Newman |
| 29 | 24 | -5 | Kyle Larson |
| 30 | 21 | -9 | Brian Scott |
| 31 | 8 | -23 | Denny Hamlin |
| 32 | 25 | -7 | Regan Smith |
| 33 | 20 | -13 | Casey Mears |
| 34 | 40 | +6 | David Ragan |
| 35 | 9 | -26 | Carl Edwards |
| 36 | 35 | -1 | Matt DiBenedetto |
| 37 | 27 | -10 | Chris Buescher |
| 38 | 38 | — | Michael Annett |
| 39 | 11 | -28 | Kasey Kahne |
| 40 | 3 | -37 | Dale Earnhardt, Jr. |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 15 matched drivers, the model averaged 9.8 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brad Keselowski | 16.0 | 1 | +15.0 |
| 2 | Kyle Busch | 15.1 | 2 | +13.1 |
| 3 | Austin Dillon | 23.4 | 3 | +20.4 |
| 5 | Chase Elliott | 10.4 | 5 | +5.4 |
| 9 | Ryan Blaney | 13.9 | 9 | +4.9 |
| 13 | Martin Truex, Jr. | 20.1 | 13 | +7.1 |
| 14 | A.J. Allmendinger | 20.1 | 14 | +6.1 |
| 16 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 18.5 | 16 | +2.5 |
| 21 | Michael McDowell | 20.0 | 21 | -1.0 |
| 22 | Jimmie Johnson | 18.9 | 22 | -3.1 |
| 25 | Joey Logano | 20.5 | 25 | -4.5 |
| 29 | Kyle Larson | 18.5 | 29 | -10.5 |
| 31 | Denny Hamlin | 16.0 | 31 | -15.0 |
| 33 | Casey Mears | 18.5 | 33 | -14.5 |
| 37 | Chris Buescher | 13.6 | 37 | -23.4 |
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Brad Keselowski: has 37 career starts at Talladega Superspeedway with a 16.2 avg finish (6 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Chase Elliott: was the model’s top pick based on 22 career starts at Talladega Superspeedway with a 14.3 avg finish (2 wins), finishing P5 on the day.
- Austin Dillon: was the biggest surprise, finishing P3 vs predicted P23. Track history: 28 starts, 14.7 avg finish.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2016 NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES AT TALLADEGA?
Brad Keselowski won the 2016 NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES AT TALLADEGA at Talladega Superspeedway.
Where was the 2016 NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES AT TALLADEGA held?
The 2016 NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES AT TALLADEGA was held at Talladega Superspeedway on May 1, 2016.