AAA 400 Drive for Autism
Dover Motor Speedway, May 6, 2018
Kevin Harvick
Winner
400
Laps
38
Entries
6
Leaders
Kevin Harvick won the 2018 AAA 400 Drive for Autism at Dover Motor Speedway on May 6, 2018, leading 201 of 400 laps. Clint Bowyer finished second; Daniel Suarez rounded out the podium. The race featured 6 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Sunday, May 6, 2018
Track
Season
2018
Winner
Leaders
6 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | +1 | Kevin Harvick |
| 2 | 12 | +10 | Clint Bowyer |
| 3 | 7 | +4 | Daniel Suarez |
| 4 | 3 | -1 | Martin Truex, Jr. |
| 5 | 9 | +4 | Kurt Busch |
| 6 | 8 | +2 | Brad Keselowski |
| 7 | 10 | +3 | Denny Hamlin |
| 8 | 14 | +6 | Ryan Blaney |
| 9 | 19 | +10 | Jimmie Johnson |
| 10 | 1 | -9 | Kyle Larson |
| 11 | 13 | +2 | Aric Almirola |
| 12 | 6 | -6 | Chase Elliott |
| 13 | 18 | +5 | Joey Logano |
| 14 | 17 | +3 | William Byron |
| 15 | 5 | -10 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. |
| 16 | 23 | +7 | Jamie McMurray |
| 17 | 25 | +8 | Kasey Kahne |
| 18 | 11 | -7 | Erik Jones |
| 19 | 22 | +3 | Trevor Bayne |
| 20 | 16 | -4 | Chris Buescher |
| 21 | 28 | +7 | A.J. Allmendinger |
| 22 | 29 | +7 | Michael McDowell |
| 23 | 15 | -8 | Alex Bowman |
| 24 | 30 | +6 | Ty Dillon |
| 25 | 26 | +1 | Bubba Wallace |
| 26 | 27 | +1 | Austin Dillon |
| 27 | 32 | +5 | David Ragan |
| 28 | 31 | +3 | Ross Chastain |
| 29 | 24 | -5 | Matt DiBenedetto |
| 30 | 35 | +5 | Gray Gaulding |
| 31 | 33 | +2 | Landon Cassill |
| 32 | 34 | +2 | Reed Sorenson |
| 33 | 21 | -12 | Ryan Newman |
| 34 | 20 | -14 | Paul Menard |
| 35 | 4 | -31 | Kyle Busch |
| 36 | 37 | +1 | Cody Ware |
| 37 | 36 | -1 | Derrike Cope |
| 38 | 38 | — | Corey LaJoie |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 22 matched drivers, the model averaged 6.1 positions off — better than the season average of 8.5. Good
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Daniel Suarez | 15.6 | 3 | +12.6 |
| 4 | Martin Truex, Jr. | 14.0 | 4 | +10.0 |
| 6 | Brad Keselowski | 12.6 | 6 | +6.6 |
| 7 | Denny Hamlin | 6.8 | 7 | -0.2 |
| 8 | Ryan Blaney | 6.8 | 8 | -1.2 |
| 9 | Jimmie Johnson | 17.7 | 9 | +8.7 |
| 10 | Kyle Larson | 9.9 | 10 | -0.1 |
| 12 | Chase Elliott | 8.3 | 12 | -3.7 |
| 13 | Joey Logano | 12.6 | 13 | -0.4 |
| 14 | William Byron | 12.0 | 14 | -2.0 |
| 15 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 20.2 | 15 | +5.2 |
| 18 | Erik Jones | 17.7 | 18 | -0.3 |
| 20 | Chris Buescher | 10.3 | 20 | -9.7 |
| 21 | A.J. Allmendinger | 18.3 | 21 | -2.7 |
| 22 | Michael McDowell | 14.7 | 22 | -7.3 |
| 23 | Alex Bowman | 15.0 | 23 | -8.0 |
| 24 | Ty Dillon | 24.3 | 24 | +0.3 |
| 25 | Bubba Wallace | 14.0 | 25 | -11.0 |
| 26 | Austin Dillon | 15.6 | 26 | -10.4 |
| 28 | Ross Chastain | 13.8 | 28 | -14.2 |
(showing top 20 finishers)
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Kevin Harvick: has 11 career starts at Dover Motor Speedway with a 7.3 avg finish (2 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 14 career starts at Dover Motor Speedway with a 9.6 avg finish (4 wins), finishing P7 on the day.
- Daniel Suarez: was the biggest surprise, finishing P3 vs predicted P16. Track history: 14 starts, 16.6 avg finish.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2018 AAA 400 Drive for Autism?
Kevin Harvick won the 2018 AAA 400 Drive for Autism at Dover Motor Speedway driving for Stewart-Haas Racing.
Where was the 2018 AAA 400 Drive for Autism held?
The 2018 AAA 400 Drive for Autism was held at Dover Motor Speedway on May 6, 2018.