AAA 400 Drive for Autism
Dover Motor Speedway — May 6, 2018
Kevin Harvick
Winner
400
Laps
40
Entries
6
Leaders
Kevin Harvick won the 2018 AAA 400 Drive for Autism at Dover Motor Speedway on May 6, 2018, leading 201 of 400 laps. Clint Bowyer finished second; Daniel Suarez rounded out the podium. The race featured 6 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Sunday, May 6, 2018
Track
Season
2018
Winner
Leaders
6 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | +2 | Kevin Harvick |
| 2 | 8 | +6 | Clint Bowyer |
| 3 | 11 | +8 | Daniel Suarez |
| 4 | 1 | -3 | Martin Truex, Jr. |
| 5 | 9 | +4 | Kurt Busch |
| 6 | 4 | -2 | Brad Keselowski |
| 7 | 36 | +29 | Denny Hamlin |
| 8 | 7 | -1 | Ryan Blaney |
| 9 | 27 | +18 | Jimmie Johnson |
| 10 | 18 | +8 | Kyle Larson |
| 11 | 12 | +1 | Aric Almirola |
| 12 | 16 | +4 | Chase Elliott |
| 13 | 19 | +6 | Joey Logano |
| 14 | 21 | +7 | William Byron |
| 15 | 14 | -1 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. |
| 16 | 22 | +6 | Jamie McMurray |
| 17 | 29 | +12 | Kasey Kahne |
| 18 | 2 | -16 | Erik Jones |
| 19 | — | — | Trevor Bayne |
| 20 | 20 | — | Chris Buescher |
| 21 | — | — | Ross Chastain |
| 22 | — | — | Clint Bowyer |
| 23 | 15 | -8 | Alex Bowman |
| 24 | — | — | Landon Cassill |
| 25 | — | — | Joey Gase |
| 26 | — | — | Michael McDowell |
| 27 | — | — | Aric Almirola |
| 28 | — | — | Paul Menard |
| 29 | — | — | Kyle Larson |
| 30 | — | — | Jamie McMurray |
| 31 | — | — | Corey LaJoie |
| 32 | — | — | William Byron |
| 33 | — | — | Kyle Busch |
| 34 | — | — | Chase Elliott |
| 35 | — | — | Daniel Suarez |
| 36 | — | — | Brad Keselowski |
| 37 | — | — | Kurt Busch |
| 38 | — | — | Denny Hamlin |
| 39 | — | — | Joey Logano |
| 40 | — | — | Ryan Blaney |
Stage Results
| Driver | Stage 1 | Stage 2 | Stage 3 | Stage Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martin Truex, Jr. | 1 | 1 | — | 20 |
| Kevin Harvick | 2 | 4 | — | 16 |
| Ryan Blaney | 4 | 3 | — | 15 |
| Clint Bowyer | 6 | 6 | — | 10 |
| Kyle Larson | 8 | 5 | — | 9 |
| Daniel Suarez | 7 | — | — | 4 |
| Kurt Busch | — | 7 | — | 4 |
| Joey Logano | — | 8 | — | 3 |
| Aric Almirola | 9 | — | — | 2 |
| Erik Jones | — | 9 | — | 2 |
| Chase Elliott | 10 | — | — | 1 |
| Brad Keselowski | — | — | — | — |
| Denny Hamlin | — | — | — | — |
| Jimmie Johnson | — | — | — | — |
| William Byron | — | — | — | — |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | — | — | — | — |
| Jamie McMurray | — | — | — | — |
| Kasey Kahne | — | — | — | — |
| Trevor Bayne | — | — | — | — |
| Chris Buescher | — | — | — | — |
| Ross Chastain | — | — | — | — |
| Clint Bowyer | — | — | — | — |
| Alex Bowman | — | — | — | — |
| Landon Cassill | — | — | — | — |
| Joey Gase | — | — | — | — |
| Michael McDowell | — | — | — | — |
| Aric Almirola | — | — | — | — |
| Paul Menard | — | — | — | — |
| Kyle Larson | — | — | — | — |
| Jamie McMurray | — | — | — | — |
| Corey LaJoie | — | — | — | — |
| William Byron | — | — | — | — |
| Kyle Busch | — | — | — | — |
| Chase Elliott | — | — | — | — |
| Daniel Suarez | — | — | — | — |
| Brad Keselowski | — | — | — | — |
| Kurt Busch | — | — | — | — |
| Denny Hamlin | — | — | — | — |
| Joey Logano | — | — | — | — |
| Ryan Blaney | — | — | — | — |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 19 matched drivers, the model averaged 6.2 positions off — better than the season average of 8.5. Good
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Daniel Suarez | 15.6 | 3 | +12.6 |
| 4 | Martin Truex, Jr. | 13.8 | 4 | +9.8 |
| 6 | Brad Keselowski | 12.0 | 6 | +6.0 |
| 7 | Denny Hamlin | 6.8 | 7 | -0.2 |
| 8 | Ryan Blaney | 6.8 | 8 | -1.2 |
| 9 | Jimmie Johnson | 17.7 | 9 | +8.7 |
| 10 | Kyle Larson | 8.6 | 10 | -1.4 |
| 12 | Chase Elliott | 8.3 | 12 | -3.7 |
| 13 | Joey Logano | 12.1 | 13 | -0.9 |
| 14 | William Byron | 10.3 | 14 | -3.7 |
| 15 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 20.1 | 15 | +5.1 |
| 18 | Erik Jones | 17.7 | 18 | -0.3 |
| 20 | Chris Buescher | 10.3 | 20 | -9.7 |
| 21 | Ross Chastain | 13.8 | 21 | -7.2 |
| 23 | Alex Bowman | 14.0 | 23 | -9.0 |
| 25 | Joey Gase | 22.0 | 25 | -3.0 |
| 26 | Michael McDowell | 15.0 | 26 | -11.0 |
| 31 | Corey LaJoie | 24.9 | 31 | -6.1 |
| 33 | Kyle Busch | 15.6 | 33 | -17.4 |
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Kevin Harvick: has 13 career starts at Dover Motor Speedway with a 10.2 avg finish (2 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
- Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 14 career starts at Dover Motor Speedway with a 11.8 avg finish (3 wins), finishing P7 on the day.
- Daniel Suarez: was the biggest surprise, finishing P3 vs predicted P16. Track history: 12 starts, 16.2 avg finish.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2018 AAA 400 Drive for Autism?
Kevin Harvick won the 2018 AAA 400 Drive for Autism at Dover Motor Speedway driving for Stewart-Haas Racing.
Where was the 2018 AAA 400 Drive for Autism held?
The 2018 AAA 400 Drive for Autism was held at Dover Motor Speedway on May 6, 2018.