Food City 500

Bristol Motor Speedway, April 15, 2018

Kyle Busch
Winner
500
Laps
39
Entries
8
Leaders

Kyle Busch won the 2018 Food City 500 at Bristol Motor Speedway on April 15, 2018, leading 117 of 500 laps. Kyle Larson finished second; Jimmie Johnson rounded out the podium. The race featured 8 different leaders.

Race Details
Date
Sunday, April 15, 2018
Season
2018
Winner
Leaders
8 drivers
Pos Start +/- Driver
1 1 Kyle Busch
2 6 +4 Kyle Larson
3 17 +14 Jimmie Johnson
4 4 Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
5 8 +3 Alex Bowman
6 19 +13 Aric Almirola
7 39 +32 Kevin Harvick
8 14 +6 Clint Bowyer
9 10 +1 Joey Logano
10 30 +20 Ryan Newman
11 12 +1 Daniel Suarez
12 23 +11 David Ragan
13 7 -6 Paul Menard
14 25 +11 Denny Hamlin
15 21 +6 Austin Dillon
16 20 +4 Bubba Wallace
17 18 +1 A.J. Allmendinger
18 11 -7 William Byron
19 31 +12 Jamie McMurray
20 29 +9 Landon Cassill
21 24 +3 Matt DiBenedetto
22 2 -20 Kurt Busch
23 3 -20 Brad Keselowski
24 33 +9 Trevor Bayne
25 34 +9 Corey LaJoie
26 13 -13 Erik Jones
27 35 +8 D.J. Kennington
28 32 +4 Ty Dillon
29 16 -13 Chase Elliott
30 26 -4 Martin Truex, Jr.
31 28 -3 Gray Gaulding
32 36 +4 Reed Sorenson
33 38 +5 Chad Finchum
34 15 -19 Kasey Kahne
35 5 -30 Ryan Blaney
36 22 -14 Chris Buescher
37 37 Harrison Rhodes
38 9 -29 Michael McDowell
39 27 -12 Ross Chastain
Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 22 matched drivers, the model averaged 11.1 positions off — worse than the season average of 8.5. Below Average

Pos Driver Predicted Actual Delta
2 Kyle Larson 10.3 2 +8.3
3 Jimmie Johnson 18.0 3 +15.0
4 Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 20.4 4 +16.4
5 Alex Bowman 15.6 5 +10.6
9 Joey Logano 10.3 9 +1.3
11 Daniel Suarez 14.0 11 +3.0
14 Denny Hamlin 6.8 14 -7.2
15 Austin Dillon 17.7 15 +2.7
16 Bubba Wallace 12.6 16 -3.4
17 A.J. Allmendinger 20.1 17 +3.1
18 William Byron 10.8 18 -7.2
23 Brad Keselowski 13.8 23 -9.2
25 Corey LaJoie 24.9 25 -0.1
26 Erik Jones 17.7 26 -8.3
28 Ty Dillon 23.1 28 -4.9
29 Chase Elliott 9.9 29 -19.1
30 Martin Truex, Jr. 14.0 30 -16.0
33 Chad Finchum 24.9 33 -8.1
35 Ryan Blaney 6.8 35 -28.2
36 Chris Buescher 12.0 36 -24.0

(showing top 20 finishers)

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

  • Kyle Busch: has 76 career starts at Bristol Motor Speedway with a 12.3 avg finish (20 wins) — the model may have underweighted this track history.
  • Denny Hamlin: was the model’s top pick based on 49 career starts at Bristol Motor Speedway with a 14.5 avg finish (4 wins), finishing P14 on the day.
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr.: was the biggest surprise, finishing P4 vs predicted P20. Track history: 30 starts, 17.6 avg finish.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Who won the 2018 Food City 500?
Kyle Busch won the 2018 Food City 500 at Bristol Motor Speedway driving for Joe Gibbs Racing.
Where was the 2018 Food City 500 held?
The 2018 Food City 500 was held at Bristol Motor Speedway on April 15, 2018.