Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race
Bristol Motor Speedway — August 17, 2019
Denny Hamlin
Winner
500
Laps
22
Entries
10
Leaders
Denny Hamlin won the 2019 Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race at Bristol Motor Speedway on August 17, 2019, leading 79 of 500 laps. Matt DiBenedetto finished second; Brad Keselowski rounded out the podium. The race featured 10 different leaders.
Race Details
Date
Saturday, August 17, 2019
Track
Season
2019
Winner
Leaders
10 drivers
| Pos | Start | +/- | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | — | Denny Hamlin |
| 2 | 20 | +18 | Matt DiBenedetto |
| 3 | 16 | +13 | Brad Keselowski |
| 4 | 18 | +14 | Kyle Busch |
| 5 | 5 | — | Chase Elliott |
| 6 | 2 | -4 | Kyle Larson |
| 7 | 17 | +10 | Clint Bowyer |
| 8 | 15 | +7 | Daniel Suarez |
| 9 | 9 | — | Kurt Busch |
| 10 | 10 | — | Ryan Blaney |
| 11 | 24 | +13 | Ryan Newman |
| 12 | 31 | +19 | Daniel Hemric |
| 13 | 3 | -10 | Martin Truex, Jr. |
| 14 | 26 | +12 | Bubba Wallace |
| 15 | 12 | -3 | Alex Bowman |
| 16 | 14 | -2 | Joey Logano |
| 17 | 22 | +5 | Chris Buescher |
| 18 | 32 | +14 | Ryan Preece |
| 19 | 11 | -8 | Jimmie Johnson |
| 20 | 25 | +5 | Ty Dillon |
| 22 | 8 | -14 | Erik Jones |
| 39 | 4 | -35 | Kevin Harvick |
Stage Results
| Driver | Stage 1 | Stage 2 | Stage 3 | Stage Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martin Truex, Jr. | 2 | 1 | — | 19 |
| Denny Hamlin | 1 | 3 | — | 18 |
| Kyle Larson | 3 | 2 | — | 17 |
| Kevin Harvick | 5 | 4 | — | 13 |
| Alex Bowman | 6 | 6 | — | 10 |
| Jimmie Johnson | 7 | 5 | — | 10 |
| Erik Jones | 9 | 7 | — | 6 |
| Ryan Blaney | 10 | 8 | — | 4 |
| Kyle Busch | 8 | — | — | 3 |
| Brad Keselowski | — | 9 | — | 2 |
| Clint Bowyer | — | 10 | — | 1 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | — | — | — | — |
| Chase Elliott | — | — | — | — |
| Daniel Suarez | — | — | — | — |
| Kurt Busch | — | — | — | — |
| Ryan Newman | — | — | — | — |
| Daniel Hemric | — | — | — | — |
| Bubba Wallace | — | — | — | — |
| Joey Logano | — | — | — | — |
| Chris Buescher | — | — | — | — |
| Ryan Preece | — | — | — | — |
| Ty Dillon | — | — | — | — |
Model Performance
How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 16 matched drivers, the model averaged 4.5 positions off — better than the season average of 8.5. Excellent
| Pos | Driver | Predicted | Actual | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Denny Hamlin | 6.8 | 1 | +5.8 |
| 3 | Brad Keselowski | 12.0 | 3 | +9.0 |
| 4 | Kyle Busch | 15.6 | 4 | +11.6 |
| 5 | Chase Elliott | 8.3 | 5 | +3.3 |
| 6 | Kyle Larson | 8.6 | 6 | +2.6 |
| 8 | Daniel Suarez | 15.6 | 8 | +7.6 |
| 10 | Ryan Blaney | 6.8 | 10 | -3.2 |
| 13 | Martin Truex, Jr. | 13.8 | 13 | +0.8 |
| 14 | Bubba Wallace | 14.0 | 14 | 0.0 |
| 15 | Alex Bowman | 14.0 | 15 | -1.0 |
| 16 | Joey Logano | 12.1 | 16 | -3.9 |
| 17 | Chris Buescher | 10.3 | 17 | -6.7 |
| 18 | Ryan Preece | 10.8 | 18 | -7.2 |
| 19 | Jimmie Johnson | 17.7 | 19 | -1.3 |
| 20 | Ty Dillon | 24.3 | 20 | +4.3 |
| 22 | Erik Jones | 17.7 | 22 | -4.3 |
Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.
Historical Context
- Denny Hamlin: has 48 career starts at Bristol Motor Speedway with a 14.3 avg finish (4 wins) — the model correctly identified this strength.
- Kyle Busch: was the biggest surprise, finishing P4 vs predicted P16. Track history: 73 starts, 11.7 avg finish.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who won the 2019 Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race?
Denny Hamlin won the 2019 Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race at Bristol Motor Speedway driving for Joe Gibbs Racing.
Where was the 2019 Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race held?
The 2019 Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race was held at Bristol Motor Speedway on August 17, 2019.