Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race

Bristol Motor Speedway, August 17, 2019

Denny Hamlin
Winner
500
Laps
39
Entries
10
Leaders

Denny Hamlin won the 2019 Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race at Bristol Motor Speedway on August 17, 2019, leading 79 of 500 laps. Matt DiBenedetto finished second; Brad Keselowski rounded out the podium. The race featured 10 different leaders.

Race Details
Date
Saturday, August 17, 2019
Season
2019
Winner
Leaders
10 drivers
Pos Start +/- Driver
1 1 Denny Hamlin
2 7 +5 Matt DiBenedetto
3 13 +10 Brad Keselowski
4 31 +27 Kyle Busch
5 6 +1 Chase Elliott
6 2 -4 Kyle Larson
7 20 +13 Clint Bowyer
8 18 +10 Daniel Suarez
9 4 -5 Kurt Busch
10 12 +2 Ryan Blaney
11 14 +3 Ryan Newman
12 17 +5 Daniel Hemric
13 3 -10 Martin Truex, Jr.
14 22 +8 Bubba Wallace
15 10 -5 Alex Bowman
16 11 -5 Joey Logano
17 29 +12 Chris Buescher
18 23 +5 Ryan Preece
19 30 +11 Jimmie Johnson
20 24 +4 Ty Dillon
21 21 William Byron
22 9 -13 Erik Jones
23 25 +2 Paul Menard
24 26 +2 Corey LaJoie
25 32 +7 Landon Cassill
26 39 +13 Ross Chastain
27 27 Matt Tifft
28 36 +8 J.J. Yeley
29 5 -24 Aric Almirola
30 34 +4 Quin Houff
31 38 +7 Kyle Weatherman
32 33 +1 B.J. McLeod
33 15 -18 Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
34 19 -15 Austin Dillon
35 35 Josh Bilicki
36 16 -20 David Ragan
37 28 -9 Michael McDowell
38 37 -1 Reed Sorenson
39 8 -31 Kevin Harvick
Model Performance

How well did the NR-Rating model predict this race? Across 24 matched drivers, the model averaged 6.3 positions off — better than the season average of 8.5. Good

Pos Driver Predicted Actual Delta
1 Denny Hamlin 6.8 1 +5.8
3 Brad Keselowski 13.8 3 +10.8
5 Chase Elliott 9.9 5 +4.9
6 Kyle Larson 10.3 6 +4.3
8 Daniel Suarez 14.0 8 +6.0
10 Ryan Blaney 6.8 10 -3.2
13 Martin Truex, Jr. 14.0 13 +1.0
14 Bubba Wallace 12.6 14 -1.4
15 Alex Bowman 15.6 15 +0.6
16 Joey Logano 10.3 16 -5.7
17 Chris Buescher 12.0 17 -5.0
18 Ryan Preece 12.6 18 -5.4
19 Jimmie Johnson 18.0 19 -1.0
20 Ty Dillon 23.1 20 +3.1
21 William Byron 10.8 21 -10.2
22 Erik Jones 17.7 22 -4.3
24 Corey LaJoie 24.9 24 +0.9
26 Ross Chastain 12.6 26 -13.4
28 J.J. Yeley 27.3 28 -0.7
32 B.J. McLeod 24.9 32 -7.1

(showing top 20 finishers)

Predicted finish from NR-Rating model. Delta = predicted − actual (positive = driver beat prediction). Confidence: High Confidence = low variance (stdDev ≤ 9), Moderate = medium variance, Coinflip = high variance.

Historical Context

  • Denny Hamlin: has 49 career starts at Bristol Motor Speedway with a 14.5 avg finish (4 wins) — the model correctly identified this strength.
  • Brad Keselowski: was the biggest surprise, finishing P3 vs predicted P14. Track history: 50 starts, 14.6 avg finish.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Who won the 2019 Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race?
Denny Hamlin won the 2019 Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race at Bristol Motor Speedway driving for Joe Gibbs Racing.
Where was the 2019 Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race held?
The 2019 Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race was held at Bristol Motor Speedway on August 17, 2019.